CAPE

12z GFS and CMC both have some frozen March 3-4 timeframe.

This might be a case where a strong -NAO building westward actually hurts us by helping to pinch off a TPV lobe, dropping it southward out west. With the SPV weakened, TPVs are going to be migrating into the midlatitudes. Might have a better outcome with a weaker/east based -NAO here. If the Aleutian ridge wasn't stuck there it wouldn't be an issue. That remains the fundamental feature that has killed winter for the east.

At this juncture why post a bunch of maps just for the hell of it? If there is nothing to specifically analyze, just leave it. We all know what we are dealing with.

It's gonna take a stout west-based block like that for a fighting chance against the persistent awfulness out west.

Those tricky Canadians.

yeah baby!

HH GEFS is a bit more juiced up for this weekend with the weak wave moving east into the transient cold in place.

The 28th is closer on the HH GFS. That window still has legs, as the blocking is getting established and NS vorts are flying around.

I wasn't looking at it like that, but yeah that would be rather frustrating. A LR tool like that is probably wrong anyway. I'll bet on the --PNA still being be around.. we will probably be in the 80s by early April.

I am probably one of the few who want a cool Spring. I don't want to see an effing 80 till June. Hold off the inevitable tropical weather as long as possible. Last Spring/early Summer was probably as good as it gets around here these days.

I see @Cobalthas already posted it. My bad. Mine is a little funnier though.

This would really piss off some people here.

That's a negligible difference dude lol. Esp this far out on a smoothed, course mean. It has been pretty steady for the last several cycles. What's the problem with that overall look? Elephant..

Anything prior to the 25th has been dead for our region. Thermal boundary too far NW. No reasonable chance to get cold in our region with a deep western trough and no help up top.

That period isn't relevant. Colder air hasn't pressed southward yet. This is the timeframe where we could actually get some precip with colder air in place-

For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low.

For the weekend- there is some weak vorticity moving along the boundary between the SE ridge and the colder air pressing in from the north. There will be a transient cold high to our north, so the possibility is there for at least some frozen. Biggest question is will there be enough forcing, and where. Right now it doesn't look like a big deal but there could be a little snow/mix in parts of our region. 0z GEFS members-

55 here. Been outside pulling out chickweed and dandelions in the plant beds, and putting down some fresh mulch. NOT summer is great!

It develops a low offshore when the NS energy dives in and interacts with the vorticity ribbon stretched out overtop the ridge. Its a weird looking setup for us to get frozen from. SNE gets a little snow from it this run.

We have a strong suspicion lol.

By definition an atmospheric block involves both a high and low that are nearly stationary, thus forcing the flow to divert poleward/equatorward. I suppose the strictest definition would require a closed contour at h5 for both the High and the Low. For practical purposes, what we are seeing advertised currently on the means is a block. It could still morph into something else at this range.

There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet.

12z GEFS for next weekend. There is no block yet so this is a timing deal to get some frozen with HP on the move. Looks minor at this point but something.

I'm not sure about all these 'timing rules' for tropospheric impacts associated with SSW events. Above my pay grade. My guess is it's a crapshoot like the rest of this stuff. So having said that, IF the longwave pattern currently being advertised on the means for early March verify(especially the EPS), we should have a chance or 2 before mid month when climo becomes really hostile for the lowlands.

The SPV experts say- its happening!