CAPE

Seems like something has been happening up there. Looks pretty uncomfortable for a polar vortex.

Maybe the SSW is having a favorable impact that will improve our prospects for once. Encouraging to see the depicted transition in the high latitudes on guidance. Once again we wait and see if it actually materializes in a meaningful way.

Stronger signal on the 0z EPS for low pressure tracking underneath and off the coast for the 28th window. Modest signal for frozen in our region. Hints of the block getting into a position where it can encourage a more southward storm track.

It's always possible given the persistent deep trough out west. As I have said, it is likely going to take a strong west-based -NAO to inhibit that. Latest EPS runs are getting it done. Suppresses the SE ridge more so than the GEFS with a well positioned, strong block the end of Feb into March. Retrogrades it into an ideal position by the 5th.

This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA. eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west.

The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).

18z GFS has a similar outcome to the Euro for the 28th. Upstairs is somewhat different though. The way it looks now, the timing and amount of dig with that northern stream energy coming south will have a lot to do with how this goes.

But you keep taking the bait. Stop.

It has been pretty persistent. The 12z Canadian was further south than previous run and similar to the GFS. Euro op has been north, and all 3 ensembles have had a relatively weak signal for our region and stronger to our north.

You are doing better with your posts, but you need to stop doing this. Just ignore it.

Yeah in general 3 or 4 days out seems reasonable. Unless the Med-LR is super busy with tracking possible threats, which it absolutely isn't this winter.

Just about as silly as the jinx thing.

Rare winterish feeling day today. Low of 26 and a high of 41. Here we go 50s/60s and probably a 70 over the next 5-6 days.

Just one 6" snowfall would salvage this wreck of a winter for me. That would put me at roughly a third of average, but I will take it. Most here would, but for those further NW I get that it would still suck relative to their average. We are all beggars at this point.

In general I agree, but a bit less -PNA would be better. Seeing some signs of a slightly weaker Aleutian ridge on the means by early March.

^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds.

Pretty workable look for early March on the EPS. Legit -NAO dipole mitigating the awful Pacific enough to erase the SE ridge.

A bit of a signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge.

I'm not super enthused despite seeing the -NAO on guidance. We will see if the shorter wavelengths help going forward, but that Aleutian ridge is just locked in and doesn't seem to want to nudge eastward even a little bit. We probably will need a monster west-based block for a time to get a few legit shots.

If you are talking about the 25-26th, there has been a weak signal for some frozen on the means. I have made a few posts about it. As for whether it happens or not, who knows. GFS op has been consistently hinting, but the GEFS and EPS suggest the better chance is further north(shocker), which is probably how it will go. CMC ens is a bit better for our region. It's highly uncertain how much cold will be available for that period, but has the general look of some sort of frozen front end favoring places inland at elevation for our region. Probably a better chance of something the first few days of March based on the depicted pattern progression.

Battle of the atmospheric blocks.

Sure, but it's the Commanders. Going from Mahomes as QB to....lmao. I wish him luck. This isn't the path he should have to take to get a HC job.

Just effin with ya. Not a big believer in the SSW impacts, but once in awhile it works out. Getting late though. The SPV will be naturally weakening anyway as we move through March, so I am skeptical this does much.

Why would Bieniemy want the Commanders OC job? It's a lateral move but risky that this will improve his chances to get a HC job. YOU ARE THE OC OF A TEAM WITH MAHOMES! Seems like a desperate move. A shame he has to do this prove he can be the guy, without Reid. Odd he isn't already a HC somewhere.