CAPE

Surface temps above freezing and weak lift. It has blue over Ji though and it's on the exact date he claimed lol.

0z Euro has the Ji storm.

Yeah, that's how it works with progressive flow. Yet you constantly pop in here and post about 'good looks' with transient lows hauling ass through the 50-50 region lol.

And the 18z GEFS will probably look nothing like 12z lol. Follow the leader.

At least we get heavy rain with temps in the mid 40s instead of 33 degree drizzle.

A Highly Anticipated Presser https://russellstreetreport.com/2023/01/18/lombardis-way/presser/

If it doesn't snow here I'm coming to visit you. Light workload the next 2 weeks. eta- we don't need a SSW event, and that's not what is being forecasted, beyond the typical hype. There isn't any hard and fast rules about there being some specified amount of delay. Even Cohen doesn't really know.`

The CMC ens has a legit west-based -NAO the end of the month into early Feb. It is a classic dipole look with a TPV stuck underneath and low h5 heights stretched towards 50-50. This significantly mitigates the unfavorable ridge-trough position upstream in the EPac, squashing the SE ridge. Is it correct? Hard to say, but given some of the forecasted strat warming (and weakening SPV), it could be. I am sure as hell rooting for the Canadians here lol.

The biggest difference I see on the 12z run is up top, with the strength/timing of the TPV vorticity lobe rotating south and the vortex in the 50-50 position. The op run made a favorable move and the mean really picked up on it. Could easily change the next model cycle.

Hoping for a solid event somewhere within a few hours drive over the next 2 weeks. I can take a mini vacay anytime during that period.

Check the low level temps. If it's a weak pos it is probably rain/non accumulating snow.

WB has been shitting the blinds lately with the EPS.

All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means.

The general pattern progression and timing on the ens runs hasn't changed. In my mind beyond the 25th is where the chances for frozen for most of our region would begin to increase. The 23rd has looked like a Central/N PA and north event on the means for awhile, with possibly the NW fringes of our area having some minor impacts. The Ji storm around the 27th has looked marginal for cold but certainly isn't dead. Beyond that is where the best potential lies but ofc we are 10 days away. Folks get tired of the waiting. With the depicted h5 setup, the cold will build and be close by, but the bleed southeastward probably comes incrementally with multiple events putting down some snow to our north first.

That storm was wicked here. All out blizzard. Was difficult to measure, plus falling on top of what was still otg. Once in a lifetime winter.

2013-14 and 14-15, and tracking the one big storm in 2016- that period was overall the best on here imo. Plenty of tracking that actually yielded results, the poetry thread, and Jebman's epic rants. Good times.

I am sure the question will come up- and I went and looked this up as I wasn't sure and think this is correct- Roman was only extended through the 2022 season, which means the Ravens don't have to fire him. They can simply let him move on, sort of like they did with Wink last year. Or they can extend him. Don't even..

Not an expert but I am guessing this isn't a good look if you are a Stratospheric Polar Vortex.

@ravensrule Is this true?

Love avocado toast. With a yolky egg on top.

Something like this.

The 23rd maybe. Doesn't look that 'good' to me at this point, but given your location it may be more interesting.

6z GEFS. Has that look..

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.