CAPE

The latest Ens means in the long range are hinting at an improving pattern beyond mid month, with the AO and NAO trending toward negative and with the TPV back over N Hudson Bay. This look suggests some colder air intrusions would be possible for central and eastern US, as NS disturbances are directed southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. A more -NAO might help facilitate getting colder air further southeast/ flattening the ridge along the east coast, somewhat mitigating the -PNA. Always a battle. We really need that ridge south of the Aleutians to not be the predominant feature. Some weakening and a slight shift eastward would improve our prospects.

I made a post about that period this morning. I guess no one noticed lol. It could work out for inland areas at elevation if the timing is right. The synoptic set up as depicted is more problematic for the lowlands. eta- I was being facetious in that post, mostly. I don't think winter is over, but the creation of the new thread was supposed to quell the gloom/doom and whinging- but if anything it has ramped up more.

As predicted, a new LR thread would just be overwhelmed by the same shit as the last one lol. There isn't any new positive vibe to be had at this juncture. Only Spring can save us from ourselves now.

You woke up this morningThe world turned upside down..

This is probably the next (best) low probability, thread the needle shot at something with a transient PNA ridge, and a piece of NS energy that rotates southward around the TPV and into the 50/50 position for a few hours lol.

2/1: 0.3" T: 0.4"

Looks like a solid quarter inch out there! lol Still snowing lightly.

Lighter with smaller flakes now. Can definitely see the better returns to my south and esp over towards southern DE.

Started snowing here in the last 30 mins. Everything covered and coming down moderately. See how long it lasts.

It might be important that we all do this.

For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case.

The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling.

I wouldn't hate this hire if they go that way. Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales gets second interview for Ravens offensive coordinator job https://www.baltimorebeatdown.com/2023/1/31/23580442/seahawks-qbs-coach-dave-canales-will-have-second-interview-for-ravens-offensive-coordinator-job

3 runs ago lol GFS and RGEM may end up doing the best overall sniffing this one out.

The better wide view

lol what a thing to moan about when we talking an inch of snow as the upside.

Because there aren't any 5:1?

Dried up underperforming pos.. nope, don't need that.

Minor event, but is this possibly going to go the right way towards game time for a change?

Dover to SNJ bullseye lol

HH GFS getting it done.

The gloom and doom is pervasive. It will just engulf the new thread lol.