CAPE

Ravens are pretty healthy while the Jags are banged up and slumping. Their defense is ranked 31. This won't be easy. Ravens fans know.

Temps on the rise here. Up to 49.

Guidance does have a tendency to 'rush' pattern changes. That being said, I never saw what I would consider can kicking. I suppose that's subjective, and the notion of it mostly seems to be rooted in fear or impatience.

Morning AFD from Mount Holly- As the potent upper-level trough arrives and drives strong low pressure across our area, an intense east to southeast 925 mb jet of 50-80 knots is forecast to lift northward. The strongest part of this low-level jet is across the coastal plain on eastward later this evening into the pre-dawn hours of Monday. It is during this time when the heaviest rain will fall, as precipitable water values rapidly increase to near 1.5 inches across the region. The high precipitable water and ample lift will result in a period of heavy rain, which looks to occur from about late this evening to the early morning hours of Monday. For more details on the flooding potential, see the hydrology section below. As the above intense low-level jet tracks northward later tonight and early Monday morning, the model forecast soundings particularly across Delmarva and then southern to central New Jersey show increasing elevated instability. The NAM is highest with about 500 J/kg. The profiles are moist therefore the overall instability should be on the weak side, however there will be a period of time where the low-level shear is rather impressive. Since buoyancy should be somewhat limited and rooted above the surface, severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Something to keep an eye on though based on the track of the surface low, and for now did add in a thunder chance late tonight and early Monday morning across the above mentioned areas. The winds will increase dramatically tonight especially closer to the coast. There will be a robust low-level wind field and although the strong warm air advection over and off the cooler ocean waters tends to create a more stable boundary layer, the guidance continues to show 3 hour pressure falls of around 10 mb as the strong surface low arrives overnight. This can compensate for any stable marine influence and result in at least some of the stronger winds from aloft to reach the surface. The model forecast soundings show strong winds right near the surface during its peak later tonight into early Monday morning and this occurs as the boundary layer warms some. Given the latest forecast, no changes were made to the Wind Advisory for our New Jersey coastal zones and also Sussex County, Delaware. Peak wind gusts, as of now, remain forecast to be up to 50 mph. The thinking remains that not enough mixing occurs to bring the stronger winds (60-70 mph gusts) down to the surface, however there could be a small window of opportunity along the coast just ahead of the surface low where a few gusts are closer to 60 mph.

Nice win for the Bengals. Browning might be starting somewhere next season. Maybe the Vikings regret cutting him.

Steelers have now lost three straight. You love to see it. Sorry Vikings fans. Tough loss.

Yesterday's edition of the weeklies have this look a few days later. Maybe we do see an early Jan -NAO period. The latest CMC Ext depicted an early Jan -NAO. GEFS Ext looks neutral. Overall the advertised pattern progression looks very favorable heading into the beginning of snow climo season.

0z EPS has the NAO going negative/50-50 low with a building EPO ridge and +PNA for the beginning of Jan.

Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

These twitter dweebs and the raging Pac jet. Annoying AF. I'm sure they understand the core characteristics of a Nino, but they have their agendas.

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available.

Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look.

It seems pretty likely that the most notable initial improvement in the longwave pattern will be the NE Pac low retrograding towards the Aleutians, with the flat central Canada ridge 'morphing' into an EPO ridge. All the ens means depict this evolution. That's a favorable shift and a colder look for the eastern US. There are also hints of improvement in the NA, esp on some of the Op runs, but it may be closer to mid January before we see something more than a transient -NAO. This aligns with most of the winter forecasts, and also what the extended tools have been depicting. The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak.

There is an indication of a following wave on the mean (similar to the 6z GFS op), and given the improving look up top there might be some colder air to work with for early January.

Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.

If the weeklies/extended products have the right idea, we should see some classic setups like that moving forward.

This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward.

There have been incremental improvements there on the means over the last several runs, more so on the EPS and GEPS. That allows heights to build northward over AK. (-EPO). With hints of improvement in the NA towards D15, perhaps we are starting to see the beginnings of the overall favorable h5 looks the extended products have been advertising.

^At the end of the 0z EPS run you can see the lower heights in the 50-50 region. Looks like there will be at least 2 storms tracking NE across the area the last week of the month, and even if they are just rainstorms here, as those mature lows track NE they end up contributing to building heights into the NAO domain. This process can be clearly seen on the 6z GFS.

2022 GI BCBS.

Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.

Flood watch here with 2-3" expected. Ground already pretty saturated. Oh joy.

You do realize that is the mean of 30 individual members... no, probably not.

Seeing a bit more retrogression of the PAC trough towards the Aleutians at the end of the GEFS run. Allows an EPO ridge to build poleward.