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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    A bit difficult to capture it in one 6 hour window, but you can see the spread in timing and low track among the members. The more southern track is the bigger camp.
  2. CAPE
    6z GEFS-
  3. CAPE
    GEFS has had that indication for several runs, but looking at the individual members it has mostly been timing differences. WB is shittier than normal this morning so I can't look at the latest run.
  4. CAPE
    PD looks suppressed for now. Pretty nice signal here. Plenty of spread at this range though. Best shot could be a couple days later.
  5. CAPE
    I was being facetious. The likely failure mode for PD is suppression, not a cutter. The window beyond looks more promising.
  6. CAPE
    Nope. Probably should root for a few more op run cutters to shift the hive northward.
  7. CAPE
    We really need more posts with h5 anomaly maps. I have no idea what the upcoming pattern is supposed going to look like. Heard something about a missing -NAO?
  8. CAPE
    Maybe that op run PD cutter will move the suppression needle on the 18z GEFS.
  9. CAPE
    12 days to go until the 18z GFS op run PD cutter that won't verify, and Chuck's lost -NAO. Some here definitely aren't going to make it.
  10. CAPE
    Isn't the 19th on the radar?
  11. CAPE
    It seems a phase is the way to get colder air involved with precip still ongoing. Need some slight adjustments with the timing to get the low to track a bit further south.
  12. CAPE
    6z GEFS for PD. Gets the precip shield a bit further north.
  13. CAPE
    6z GEFS implies maybe a rain to snow deal from NW to SE. Still a decent amount of spread wrt low position and timing. It will probably take a strong low with some dynamics to overcome the temp issues. A weakish wave passing just to our south is probably a loser for frozen.
  14. CAPE
    Time to root for a phase with slightly different timing maybe. Big differences in how it handles that NS vorticity from run to run.
  15. CAPE
    Phases the NS energy this time.
  16. CAPE
    0z EPS-
  17. CAPE
    0z GEFS for the 19th and the 22nd
  18. CAPE
    We need to charter a boat and drop anchor. Crazy snow climo out there.
  19. CAPE
    Clearly a signal for snow well to our north for that window. Possibility for a little something is there though. And subject to change- we have seen that there is a path to victory on recent op runs.
  20. CAPE
    Blend not bad. Suggests snow tv to a coating. Trending!
  21. CAPE
    Improvement over 12z. Decent signal at this range.
  22. CAPE
    For most it won't. I promise.
  23. CAPE
    Still a fair amount of spread in location and timing. I'm afraid we just can't know at this time.
  24. CAPE
    Yeah jettison this 'threat' from this thread. Detracting from all the fapping over epic h5 looks.
  25. CAPE
    What's the status of that 120?
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