CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.
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I think temps had cooled close to freezing here before the precip began. Antithesis of UHI FTW.
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Yeah I drove out to the Hagerstown area a couple days later and it was wild to see the cutoff driving west on I70.
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That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.
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3 snow events here totaled around 20". Great month. Rest of the winter was pretty shit.
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Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.
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Just had a sleet/rain shower here in Rehoboth.
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I was wondering if anyone would notice. And not a bad idea. Utopias barrel aged version ofc.
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Latest Euro weeklies have some drool worthy h5 looks for January.
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Yeah its not a favorable NA look on a smoothed mean 10+ days out, but the last 2 runs of the GFS op showed a couple ways it could work with good wave timing setting up transient HP and/or 50-50 from a predecessor low.
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Both the 0z and 6z GFS have a coastal low for the mid month window with snow for parts of the area. Indications are there on the 0z Ens runs. Again the advertised pattern isn't ideal esp in the NA so really good timing would be needed to get a High positioned to the N/NW for a feed of cold into a storm. Way out there but something to monitor.
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There is a bit of a signal on the EPS (and also the GEFS) for the mid month period for a coastal storm. The h5 look overall isn't great but there are 10 or so members on the EPS with snow for the MA in the 15-18th window, some focused more along the coast. There have been hints, so something to keep an eye on. Sometimes we look past sneaky threats when the pattern is flawed, waiting for the "good" one to arrive.
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Ralph has a WAR phobia.
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The bias corrected Euro and GEFS take it into the COD before/just as it gets to phase 7.
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Even the extended tool can resolve the DC UHI lol
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End of the 18z GEFS run.. GEFS extended pattern progression to Xmas.. East coast Torch!!!!!???
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Funny I was just about to make a post related to this. If only there were something cooking in the southern stream this would be a period to watch for a trailing wave following the cutter, with the boundary pulled southward. Decent gradient pattern look.
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Come on Will you know better. There is always going to be wild run to run swings on operational runs in the LR, esp during the winter.
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Yes the extended products have been consistent in the depiction of that pattern progression.
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Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth. Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.
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lol
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The forecast jet extension in the LR would be consistent with an increase in AAM, and what is expected in a Nino. Also increases the likelihood for a +PNA with the exit region of the jet closer to the west coast.
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The Ravens will be watching that tape. One thing they do well is find multiple ways to pressure the QB, and it comes from everywhere. Shanahan coached teams are great at making in game adjustments. It was impressive how quickly that game turned after the first quarter. I was literally thinking at the time this might be the first game Philly wins comfortably lol.
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I think it was 3 injuries but I generally agree. Hell the Ravens are always down multiple starters- at one point they had 7 out. They are one of the best at building a deep roster though, so that's also a factor in overcoming injuries. Another consideration is the type of QB they have really requires their key playmakers to be effective. He is smart and has the intangibles but is mediocre athletically.
