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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    High of 43 Coldest high temp of the Fall so far Currently 41.
  2. CAPE
    UHI ftl
  3. CAPE
  4. CAPE
    There are still indications for a storm on the ensembles for around Dec 6. As advertised there is a pretty classic west based -NAO with lower h5 heights off of Atlantic Canada, but because the Pacific is just transitioning to a more favorable configuration, cold air availability looks limited for this period. An OV track with some sort of coastal transfer would make sense. Highest potential for frozen would be places inland should there be a storm. We should get colder in the days that follow.
  5. CAPE
    27
  6. CAPE
    All the guidance says it's coming. Lets see of we can get the Pacific right at the same time. Good trends.
  7. CAPE
    The ens means continue the idea of trending the PNA positive (to varying degrees) by Dec 7th. They also indicate the EPO trending into negative territory just beyond that.
  8. CAPE
    As advertised this is a textbook -NAO. Higher than normal pressure near Iceland(weak sub-polar low), lower than normal pressure near the Azores(weaker subtropical high). Amplified longwave pattern with anomalous trough-ridge-trough across the N Atlantic. If that longwave pattern locks in for an extended period, then it is considered an atmospheric block.
  9. CAPE
    Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah its the same as the extended runs now on the GEFS.
  11. CAPE
    It used to be the shit. Lately I am not sure, esp for the coastal plain. Seems over here we do better with -EPO/cross polar flow. Doesn't always work out so well for the Fall line points west though.
  12. CAPE
    Ok now you are kind of ruining it.
  13. CAPE
    It is on the ens mean.
  14. CAPE
    The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.
  15. CAPE
    Pretty good post from you. More please.
  16. CAPE
    Just for fun, the Black Friday edition of the Euro Weeklies for late Dec, centered on Xmas.
  17. CAPE
    No rock throwing lol. Sounds impressive. Probably a bit too much detail on the analysis for 10 days out though.
  18. CAPE
    This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.
  19. CAPE
    The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.
  20. CAPE
    Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up over the next 3 months.
  21. CAPE
    This would be a good sign heading into early winter.
  22. CAPE
    If the trends continue we might see legit below avg temps by Dec 10th.
  23. CAPE
    All 3 ensemble means have the PNA trending positive by December 7th now.
  24. CAPE
    The general idea on the latest ensemble runs is the primary storm track remains to our northwest through about December 3. Beyond that there are indications of low pressure development along/off the MA coast. We shouldn't expect to see guidance lock in on anything specific at this range, but over multiple runs there are hints from Dec 4 onward. With an active southern jet there should be chances. The advertised pattern looks seasonably chilly for the east, but not especially cold.
  25. CAPE
    These 3 panels should give everyone here a good feeling with winter a week away.
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