CAPE

12z GEFS for NYE. Would be pretty comfy in Times Square.

I gotta ride this one till its dead. @WxUSAF has pegged it #CAPEstorm22 (second edition)

Da fuk is going on in Minnesota? Is this team a paper tiger?

Not a bad look tbh. I could see this being a nice little scraper with 2-4 here, leaving Ji land high and dry.

Ok, I chuckled. No chance it's a bomb, but even you would be happy with 1-3" at this point.

Yeah the goal here is different. Give me a few solid snow events and I'm good. I'll chase. If/when we get persistent blocking in a mod Nino, I will have higher expectations.

A little back end snow on the 12z Euro, and looks like it may have a little something around the 27th.

These advertised "epic blocking" periods have produced very little other than rain in my yard since 2016. Have done much better with fairly mediocre progressive patterns where there is a mechanism to deliver some legit cold. Yep luck and timing are key but lately it has worked out(here) and don't we always need luck and timing?

That TPV won't be getting stuck. Things look to transition pretty quickly with some shakeup in the pattern. The boundary will be close enough to our SE for a time. The 0z CMC ens has a pretty strong signal for the 27-28th, and there is some indication on the EPS. Not KU hunting here lol, but a modest wave with enough cold still in place could get some of us on the board.

We get a cold Xmas regardless. Time to focus on the 27th.

This is what I have been doing for awhile now. Oddly the best local snow chases recently have been to my east lol.

The Dolphins have lost a couple in a row. Tua has looked mediocre. Not sure how they have much success in Buffalo today. Maybe Hill will go crazy and the DBs will slip and fall a lot in the snow.

Looks like Ojabo will finally get some action today for the Ravens. It will be interesting to see how they utilize him.

Saying the pattern isn't favorable is based on a model simulation, and if he chose to hug the GFS instead, well the pattern it's depicting is favorable.

The complications in the evolution of this event are related to the highly amplified nature of the pattern- mostly the massive EPO ridge in conjunction with the NAO ridge. Some of this at the infancy stage has been discussed, but it is interesting to see the differences later in the process. There are 2 anticyclonic wave breaks that bridge the 2 ridges and influence the TPV that is 'squeezed' out underneath. Throw in the deep Aleutian trough and amplifying PNA ridge.. Notice the TPV being absorbed into the Aleutian trough, and the character of the PNA ridge as it bridges with the NAO ridge on the GEFS. The trough that is our storm is being influenced by the NAO ridge and the vortex underneath. Favorable for the desired outcome. Look at the EURO ens(CMC similar). PNA ridge bridge with the EPO, and the NW Canada TPV is interacting with the trough(the storm) downstream; the vortex/lower heights under the NAO ridge are largely absent, and the NAO ridge connects to the amped ridge ahead of the trough. Not what we want. The deep trough rotates back north as there is little resistance. Needless to say these are pretty significant differences at the time the storm is developing.

The way the coastal evolves on the 6z GEFS is literally as good as it gets in this set up.

Done whinging for a few hours now?

No idea if the GFS is more correct, but historically when we have this HL set up its depiction is what should happen. A classic (and useful) block looks like this.

6z GEFS lead wave

The GFS has been hinting at a weak wave on Christmas day for multiple runs. There is still a chance for a more significant storm on the 27th.

FSS take the whining to banter.

Like I said the other day, it will be interesting to see how this goes if we have a moderate Nino next winter. We usually see HL blocking and it has historically brought us more snow than avg in conjunction with an active STJ. If that combo can't work anymore then its time to move north I guess.

Some here didn't like that solution lol. Give me a consolidated big low even if it cuts.. front end thump!

The 6z GFS gave us a path to victory. The answer is a more significant vortex under the NAO ridge.

It's supposed to be a rare thing not to have a 50 50 low when their is a west based -nao....frustrating that this could be another spine runner Here is your puny '50-50' low squirting out into the NA as a ridge builds ahead of the deep upper low. This is how a "block" becomes ineffective.