CAPE
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Not the signal!! What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side has degraded on the means over the last several runs. I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on..
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0.27" for this first bout of rain. Temp rose a bit overnight. Currently 50 and murky.
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Not worried about the PNA phase. It's going to vary in a Nino. The most critical index at this juncture is the AO, and we have that in our favor.
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Well yeah. It's not there by accident. A proper -NAO/50-50 low generally places HP right where we want it. That was the point.
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It's probably a bit of both(SPV state/MJO progression). My wag is we see some improvement in the advertised pattern on the means over the next several runs for the mid month+ period.
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Judah has some thoughts
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Seems to be a lot of spread among the members for mid month. On the mean the h5 look out west has certainly degraded, and the overall pattern implies very mild weather for central and eastern US. I took a look at the surface temp panels on the 0z EPS and about 23 of the 50 have below normal temps for the east. A chunk of those are well below normal.
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Op run disclaimer, but the 6z GFS setup is how it can snow with a less than ideal Pacific pattern. Pretty textbook in the NA. There have been indications on the means for something mid month. Verbatim this would take care of the PSU correlation issue and then some. This is close to an ideal surface pressure configuration, and the result of a well timed upper ridge over Greenland with an h5 vortex near the 50-50 position.
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I generally pay little to no attention to op run solutions beyond day 7 unless there is ensemble support over multiple model cycles.
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Faint signal Modest signal Strong signal Hint? Suggestion? Indication? What it's fucking saying?
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Latest GEFS and Euro MJO forecasts have the enhanced convection well into Phase 7 and approaching phase 8 at mid month.
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S I G N A L ! ! !
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I'm just glad the Mount PSU snow correlation doesn't apply to my yard.
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I mean, it is the Canadian, but there was also a hint for something on the EPS and the GEFS actually south of us.
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I noticed earlier today the GEPS has a bit of a signal for east coast snow mid month. The general look is actually pretty good with a -NAO and lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Pacific is serviceable.
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The GEFS members run at higher resolution since the FV3 upgrade a few years ago, so they can resolve more detail than previously. The primary purpose of the ensembles is to quantify the uncertainty, which is always higher at longer range. There is general support for a 'small' system among the members, pretty much in line with the latest the op runs, but nothing like the 12z op run of yesterday. That outcome was/is pretty unlikely.
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Generally good trends in the LR wrt the longwave pattern, specifically in the NA. Continuing to see heights build into Greenland from Scandinavia. The Pacific isn't quite there yet, but that should sort itself out as the MJO progresses into the better phases.
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Clipper for mid next week is on life support on the means. Looked at the 6z GEFS members and there is some light precip on many, but no suggestion of snow east of the mountains. Without the early dig via shortwaves phasing, any surface development is relatively weak and too late, so not cold enough. Still time but the trends aren't great.
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Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good.
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The flow is chaotic as hell. Good opportunity for you to sharpen your skills on upper level analysis instead of focusing on the pretty digital blue colors(or lack there of) at the surface.
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Sorry for cursing but I'm high and drinking an old fashioned. It is HH. On to the the next run!
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It's the lack of interaction between shortwaves right here that's the difference. The whole thing is fucked after that. The difference in ridge amplitude/orientation/position is negligible.
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Only a problem when temps are marginal with pathetic rates. If that's the case next week we can all enjoy snow tv. Better than nothing.
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It was around 60 the day before the early Jan storm 2 years ago. It started snowing 8 hours later, and the temp was in the mid 20s with snow falling most of the next day. Not too much of a problem.
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Just took a quick look at the 12z GEFS and EPS members. Luke warm on the idea of any snow in our region east of the mountains, with the GEFS maybe a little more enthused than the EPS. Still time!
