CAPE

Triggered by Tony Pann lol.

Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies?

Big -EPO with cross polar flow in a progressive regime. Legit cold air with baroclinic boundary just offshore. When that doesn't happen for several years the immediate coast won't see snow.

We did pretty good with a storm in March of 18, and I believe that was also a Nina transitioning neutral.

I still think the 22nd presents a chance. GEFS is a tad warm but has had a strong signal. Both the EPS and CMC ens are colder and suggest a suppressed wave.

lol you would think. Waves running the boundary with cold pressing seems to be the simplest way given the pattern progression as depicted. Pretty persistent hints of that on the means beyond the 20th. Eff anything complicated or amped.

Agreed. Wrt the SER and WAR 'concern' posts, there is going to be some degree of that without a doubt. Some -NAO action will help counter it.

I am sure the gloom and doom meter will be higher once folks see the latest ens means in the LR lol. It's way out there, but probably the most likely progression, and the extended products have been depicting it. Not an awful look(typical Nina), and it is just a smoothed mean- the actual longwave pattern will vary. We aren't likely going to see some classically favorable h5 pattern lock in at this juncture. Chances will come in the usual ways- well timed wave on the the backside of a bigger storm with the boundary pulled south, front end snow to mix etc.

Typical Nina. Take a look at the current SST anomalies. Favors convection closer to the MC.

The period around the 22nd is still worth keeping an eye on for first a chance at something. CMC ens has low pressure off the coast and is colder.

Yep they all look reasonably favorable going forward, and we are getting into prime snow climo. There should be chances if something close to those h5 looks verify. Beyond that, we just can't know.

The chances have looked slim at best based on the reports. Huntley didn't throw today, but was at practice. He has shoulder tendonitis, and should be able to play with that. I think they are just getting him as much rest as possible, but he probably needs to be more involved tomorrow if he is is going to start. The only chance the Ravens have is for the D to be dominant, the run game to be dominant and eat clock, while scoring 20, don't turn it over, and get a takeaway or 2. Tall order.

It was started specifically because the other one was a disaster. Oh shit!

Low of 25 and very frosty.

Agree, but it looks better than previous runs because it has the TPV in that location and oriented that way. Would expect it to be colder at the surface given that look, so that part 'worries' me. Marginal cold has not worked for the coastal plain nearly as well in recent winters.

As discussed yesterday, the EPS is somewhat less robust with the -EPO, and doesn't get as much cold into our nearby source region, but still has a very favorable look in the LR. The TPV over N Canada is stretched southeastward with time. It will be interesting to watch the trends wrt the specifics of the pattern evolution over the next several model cycles.

Active look on the GEFS beyond the 20th. Remains to be seen how quickly colder air would bleed east and exactly where the thermal boundary will be. Signal for the 22nd is pretty strong but might be a little too soon to get a favorable track. Beyond that, there should be chances with colder air pressing.

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar.

Could be, but this represents the earliest possibility based on latest guidance. Several runs ago the odds of something interesting for this timeframe seemed remote.

I thought this morning based on the latest ens guidance our first crack at something could be as early as around 10 days away, the 20th or so. The latest GEFS suggests a chance of a wave moving along the boundary around the 22nd with cold pressing SE. A simple path to victory in a pattern evolving as currently advertised.

Imagine what these poor people must go through. Snow starts in late November, and continually accumulates without melting, through the end of February. Like clockwork, every winter. There will be 4 times this amount otg in another month. Actually doesn't bother them at all. I don't think they ever treat the roads- just plow them when there is a heavier snow and just drive on the light accumulation. Let the sun do the rest.

We had a decaying east coast ridge with flat ridging located not far off the coast when the early Jan 22 storm hit. Not much of an issue if we have some legit cold pressing in from the NW. That would tend to keep the thermal boundary suppressed further SE. Difficult to glean such details off of an h5 mean from an extended product.

Not sure if it was posted as I have been a tad busy, but this is yesterday's Euro weeklies into early Feb. Looks good well into the month fwiw.

Weather happens quick. A microcosm of life. If you wanna slow things down and savor it a bit, maybe try a little weed.

^His presence has also allowed Patrick Queen to go from a somewhat underachieving high round pick, to unlocking his true potential and becoming the dominant force the Ravens envisioned. So for those who think that contract is a bit too lucrative, it isn't at all.