CAPE

Maybe go back and read Psu's post again.

Replenishing the cold into our source region can happen pretty quickly once the TPV over AK retrogrades towards the Aleutians, in combination with ridge development in the PNA/EPO domains.

Marked improvement in the advertised h5 pattern towards the end of the 0z GEFS, especially out west. Hopefully the reshuffle/mild period lasts only about a week.

I have always found the TNH impacts on our weather to be a bit nebulous. Anecdotally if either phase is strong it can have negative impacts wrt the desired outcome of cold/snow in our region, and it seems be more problematic in combination with a Nina.

Snippets from Mount Holly AFD this AM- A strong line of showers is expected to accompany right along or just ahead of the front as it passes through. Also, there will be another surge of southerly winds in tandem with a 50-70 knot low level jet ahead of the front. All of this will be in response to the incredible amount of forcing and energy this system will have. Expect the front to move through the area quickly with it likely arriving in our western zones by around 8-9am, the I-95 metro around 10-11am, and then clearing the coast in the early afternoon. Expect there will be widespread winds gusting 40-50 mph through the day Friday, first out of the south ahead of the front and then sharply turning westerly behind it. The aforementioned line of showers along the front may be able to tap into the accelerated winds not far off the surface and mix down some higher gusts in the 50-60 mph range increasing the threat for wind damage and power outages. Right on the backside of the front, hi-res guidance and model soundings are favoring a transition from rain to a quick burst of snow as the temperatures plummet below freezing. The other concern we ave associated with the rapid introduction of a very cold airmass is the potential for a quick freezing of wet surfaces causing widespread icy conditions. One factor we may have in our favor to combat a significant flash freeze is the few hours of precip-free conditions leading up to the frontal passage, thus surfaces may not have a lot of antecedent moisture. It is also possible that there may be a brief time lag between the frontal passage/rain and when temperatures plunge below freezing; a short timespan between those two occurrences coupled with elevated winds may allow some surfaces to dry and limit freezing potential. But with all that said, the potential for dangerous, icy conditions and slick surfaces is certainly there and we will continue to closely monitor through the morning. By late day, as temperatures continue to plunge, dangerously cold conditions will become the primary hazard. So all in all, still expecting a wild day weather-wise. It`s worth noting that the combined impacts of any power outages due to the strong winds plus the extreme cold to follow could be significant.

Temp of 46 at 5am. Wind ramping up some. 0.62" of rain so far. Not much at all overnight. Quite a bit less than forecast.

Miles and Wye river crabs though... I will say the best blue crabs on earth come from the rivers on the eastern shore of MD.

It's pertinent given the likelihood it will not have snowed in DC by Jan 1, and the advertised pattern the week or so beyond that looks highly unfavorable.

52 here. I won't be using mine until tomorrow afternoon.

The size/layout/openness of my house plus location of ceiling fans and thermostat make it all work. Nice convection. Spare bedroom and workout room can get a little cold but not a problem in most cases.

Power outages just ahead of Arctic cold would not be good. I am gonna have the wood stove heating the whole place all weekend. Heat pump should never kick on if I keep it going.

Y'all just can't help yourselves.

Drank a DFH Fruit-full Fort. Now sipping a heavily spiked eggnog. Have a 2016 DFH WWS I am saving for Xmas eve.

FIRE GREG ROMAN FIRE GREG ROMAN FIRE GREG ROMAN

Banter reset. More heavily spiked egg nog. Shit. Something.

Yep. If they would have stuck to that last week..

Ravens game should be fun on Sat with temps around 20 and winds gusting to 30.

Last legit flash freeze I experienced was way back in the mid 80s in Carroll County with the thundersnow along the strong cold front. Instant whiteout and rapid temp drop. Incredible.

Latest forecast here has a low of 10 tomorrow night and a high of 22 on Sat. Legit cold for late Dec. A midday flizzard would be cool, and the latest guidance is still suggesting the possibility.

Looks like things are heading the right way towards the end of the latest ens runs. The extended guidance gives a bit of confidence this is the case.

Latest edition of the Euro weeklies. Pretty much the same pattern progression as other extended products on the Pacific side. NAO neutral/slightly+. Around the 10th and esp beyond, the pattern turns colder/ more favorable.

Glad I'm one of the few.

Probably not. But I will settle for a change at OC.

You are new here. Simple advice that always works- read the room and tread lightly.

Might be a good thing actually. Change is needed, bigly.