CAPE
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Should see those fireworks tents pop up in another month.
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This process is how it works in many cases, and in particular when there isn't an existing block in place.
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Next up- There is an indication of a wave tracking across the Gulf states for the 7-8th. Pretty far out, but there is an indication of another storm around the 11th as energy drops southeastward ahead of a developing ridge off the west coast. It shouldn't be boring over the next couple weeks. Impressive -NAO signal on the means.
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The shortwave energy in the southern stream flow looks healthy for the 4-5th window. Need to watch the timing of NS energy dropping southward to see what influence it may have. This period still seems like the first legitimate chance for something with some decent cold available.
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I like the wave timing for that window with the predecessor low in a good spot and HP just west/sw of there where we want it. It's one of those simple paths to victory with a well timed discrete shortwave tracking underneath and a favorable look in the NA. Cold enough verbatim. Just need it a little further north.
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The 4-5th window is realistically the first chance for something other than rain for the MA lowlands.
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And as is that's a cold look across most of the US.
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Yeah you're missing something. Not a surprise.
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Check out the GEPS
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Everyone else as in our regulars here? WW was in a bit of a panic about -PNA until I reassured him, and then there is always EJ..
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Was just going to mention this. For all the hand wringing about a crappy Pacific/-PNA/ 'disappearing' Aleutian low, it looks to be more brief than expected. Nino forcing ultimately overwhelms any temporary MJO modulation/NPAC jet retraction.
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I think most here do see it. You kinda beat this dead horse constantly though. Snow climo sucks worse than it used to, and it has never been great in the lowlands at our latitude. So we accept it and adjust expectations. Other options include relocating.
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Pretty nice surface look for this far out.
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The 4th-5th has consistently looked like the beginning of the window where snow possibilities increase outside of the mountains.
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Locate the cold. Show me the mechanism to get a N/NW flow into the storm. LP over the GLs and HP over Atlantic Canada. Not a good setup.
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6z GEFS for the 2nd
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Yep. Surface up to 850 mb is too warm with that track. Ofc the Euro tracks the low off the SC coast for that window. Perhaps something a bit in between.
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Ravens felt dissed, and they did what they had to do. Best news is it looks like Hamilton is ok. Now on to the important game at home next week. Also, way too much MVP talk/debate. Annoying.
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And exactly one loss to an NFC team in his career.
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Looks like the AFC top seed is between the Ravens and Dolphins. The Chiefs have issues, and Mahomes just doesn't look right. Given that, a Raven's loss tonight isn't really a big deal. But they will need to beat the Dolphins at home next week.
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12z EPS still likes the 4-5th.
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A strong Aleutian ridge is a feature of La Nina. We in a Nino Chuck.
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I'm just identifying possible discrete threat windows each model cycle, and discussing the possibilities and trends. No bold predictions from me. My shining moment came in identifying the early Jan 2022 storm threat 2 weeks out when we were in the hopeless shit the blinds pattern. That was the CAPE storm. I retired after that.
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The 12z GFS gave us a KU for the around the 9th. GEFS? You have to squint a little, but there is a bit of a signal there.
