CAPE

Brought some firewood up under the front porch for the cold weekend, and now sipping a 120. Heading to Rehoboth tomorrow and no work until next Tuesday. My fav time of year, regardless of whether or not it's cold or snows.

GFS still looks decent for some widespread snow showers.

Well damn, didn't think it would happen, but the reason it did is because Duvernay now has a foot injury lol. Ravens can't win. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10059294-ravens-rumors-sammy-watkins-claimed-on-waivers-after-packers-release

Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places.

Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze? Friday Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 17.

Not quite as bullish as I was several days ago. Has the look of cold moderating/retreating, and will need some upstream cooperation in order for the wave to not get shunted offshore. The Canadian has had the best evolution and strongest signal on the ens mean, but today it looked weaker/offshore. Still time.

It's the Tony Pann coastal low!!!

lol

Euro/CMC vs. GFS again? I'm just rooting for that little sliver of gray to shift north a bit for mby flizzard. CMC has it too and its even more pronounced.

Progressive flow and the position/orientation of the upstream ridge are key factors influencing the ability of the shortwave to gain latitude before heading off the coast. CMC gets it done by having the ridge axis further west at the point the shortwave drops down. Another factor is the position and strength of the northern stream vortex over eastern Canada- it's stronger and digs further south on the Euro/EPS with a more amplified ridge.

Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban This is p funny coming from the dude who has a shit fit on the reg when a 15 day op run doesn't show blue in your yard.

Good plan, but wtf is a self respecting snow starved weenie supposed to do when there's nothing inside 7 days?

Ravens might want to put in a claim. No risk at all, and given the utter mediocrity of their current WR corps, what's there to lose? He knows the system, not that anyone couldn't know Roman's 'system' in about 5 mins.

We just can't know yet. More pattern tracking.

ENSO is forecast to trend neutral mid to late winter, so what we end up with for a longwave pattern is a bit of a wildcard. Certainly not out of the question it could lean more Nino-like. Kind of seeing that already.

Fwiw. Aligns pretty well with the pattern progression on the GEFSX.

Oh was Pann the weenie he went after? lmao if so.

Sounds like he said something that pissed off the edgy NE snow weenies.

lol. yes we know John.

Whatever gets people to read his blog. Ofc Siberia is anomalously 'warm' with a massive upper ridge in the WPO/EPO space. That feature is key for getting the air from up there to transfer down into the midlatitudes- the incoming anomalous cold. That ridge will be trending weaker over the next week or so, to be replaced by a TPV, so Siberia will actually be getting colder into early Jan. His choice of words plus that specific map implies something different.

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

Yeah it's a progressive look, and with the western ridge shifting east and breaking overtop as advertised it would be tough.

Canadian ens has been pretty consistent with a signal for a modest wave tracking under us around the 27-28th. GEFS has had it too at times over the past few days.

Harbs will dig in. Unless it comes from up top, zero chance anything happens until the offseason.

Had a solid 3" here from that one. Plus the mini whiteout at the end. That was fun and doesn't happen often.