CAPE
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I would say there would have to be significant error in the modeled PNA state to end up with a classic cutter.
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Whenever I make an intentionally dense post I think of him for inspiration.
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Seen it plenty of times in our prime backloaded winters. Snow otg in early March survives nicely when temps are in the mid to upper 20s on a sunny day. Ofc at most that lasts one day.
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Even that cannot overcome the searing hot Feb sun bleeding through the dense clouds.
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Imagine not understanding that our inability to stay cold at this latitude is why snow never sticks around long.
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Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.
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True soaker. Overflowing ditches and water laying everywhere. Need this ground to dry up some so all that moist soil doesn't eat all the snow to come next week. 1.77" so far
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That is one iteration among many other disparate runs in that timeframe.
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I doubt it too. Yes could happen that way, but seems a bit unusual. More likely part of the 'figuring it out' process. Just looking at h5 vorticity and the nature of the main Shortwave diving SE in conjunction with the wave coming in further south under the western ridge, it would seem much of that southern energy would get absorbed (phase with) the main wave digging south, and the rest would be left behind, with very little energy shooting out ahead to help induce that initial coastal low.
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All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one.. eta- by 'next one' I mean next model cycle lol. Both runs are good.
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Hell of a look for a follow up HECS (Feb 2010) LOL.. just need a few adjustments to get the shortwave as advertised more neutral and we got something.
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That's sort of where the constant analysis and especially the damn snow maps (with the runs that have weenie outcomes) can skew expectations. This is a sick ass good pattern and it will be more mature by next week. That said, a solid warning criteria event is much more realistic in December than a KU.
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We in the game now man. But sort of like the Seahawks are in the game.. they really need to win tonight.
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Disjointed with a later phase but good outcome esp for places inland. Sort of evolves more like the Euro but comes together quicker, so better at our latitude.
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Not as clean a phase so more energy from the southern wave runs out ahead this run, similar to the Euro.
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That is more Nino-ish. Nina tendency is for a ridge in that area.
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Here comes the wind. 1.12" here so far.
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Very close. On the GFS the main shortwave digging down the east side of the ridge is sharper and involves some of the energy from the shortwave coming in off the Pac under the PNA ridge. The Euro doesn't dig as sharply or as far west, which allows a vorticity ribbon from that southern wave to run out ahead and induce the lead coastal low. Just a bit out of sync.
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Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm. Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one.
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h5 primed for storm 2.
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The shortwave that gets it done shoots SE out of an EPO ridge wave break, after a lead piece comes out and moves into the 50-50 position. The 0z run did this, but 12z did it better. (The 6z run brought too much energy out in the lead wave, with not much trailing energy). PNA ridge axis is perfect. Beautiful progression.
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Make this happen lol
