Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,898

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It develops a low offshore when the NS energy dives in and interacts with the vorticity ribbon stretched out overtop the ridge. Its a weird looking setup for us to get frozen from. SNE gets a little snow from it this run.
  2. CAPE
    We have a strong suspicion lol.
  3. CAPE
    By definition an atmospheric block involves both a high and low that are nearly stationary, thus forcing the flow to divert poleward/equatorward. I suppose the strictest definition would require a closed contour at h5 for both the High and the Low. For practical purposes, what we are seeing advertised currently on the means is a block. It could still morph into something else at this range.
  4. CAPE
    There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet.
  5. CAPE
    12z GEFS for next weekend. There is no block yet so this is a timing deal to get some frozen with HP on the move. Looks minor at this point but something.
  6. CAPE
    I'm not sure about all these 'timing rules' for tropospheric impacts associated with SSW events. Above my pay grade. My guess is it's a crapshoot like the rest of this stuff. So having said that, IF the longwave pattern currently being advertised on the means for early March verify(especially the EPS), we should have a chance or 2 before mid month when climo becomes really hostile for the lowlands.
  7. CAPE
    The SPV experts say- its happening!
  8. CAPE
    Seems like something has been happening up there. Looks pretty uncomfortable for a polar vortex.
  9. CAPE
    Maybe the SSW is having a favorable impact that will improve our prospects for once. Encouraging to see the depicted transition in the high latitudes on guidance. Once again we wait and see if it actually materializes in a meaningful way.
  10. CAPE
    Stronger signal on the 0z EPS for low pressure tracking underneath and off the coast for the 28th window. Modest signal for frozen in our region. Hints of the block getting into a position where it can encourage a more southward storm track.
  11. CAPE
    It's always possible given the persistent deep trough out west. As I have said, it is likely going to take a strong west-based -NAO to inhibit that. Latest EPS runs are getting it done. Suppresses the SE ridge more so than the GEFS with a well positioned, strong block the end of Feb into March. Retrogrades it into an ideal position by the 5th.
  12. CAPE
    This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA. eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west.
  13. CAPE
    The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).
  14. CAPE
    18z GFS has a similar outcome to the Euro for the 28th. Upstairs is somewhat different though. The way it looks now, the timing and amount of dig with that northern stream energy coming south will have a lot to do with how this goes.
  15. CAPE
    But you keep taking the bait. Stop.
  16. CAPE
    It has been pretty persistent. The 12z Canadian was further south than previous run and similar to the GFS. Euro op has been north, and all 3 ensembles have had a relatively weak signal for our region and stronger to our north.
  17. CAPE
    You are doing better with your posts, but you need to stop doing this. Just ignore it.
  18. CAPE
    Yeah in general 3 or 4 days out seems reasonable. Unless the Med-LR is super busy with tracking possible threats, which it absolutely isn't this winter.
  19. CAPE
    Just about as silly as the jinx thing.
  20. CAPE
    Rare winterish feeling day today. Low of 26 and a high of 41. Here we go 50s/60s and probably a 70 over the next 5-6 days.
  21. CAPE
    Just one 6" snowfall would salvage this wreck of a winter for me. That would put me at roughly a third of average, but I will take it. Most here would, but for those further NW I get that it would still suck relative to their average. We are all beggars at this point.
  22. CAPE
    In general I agree, but a bit less -PNA would be better. Seeing some signs of a slightly weaker Aleutian ridge on the means by early March.
  23. CAPE
    ^Slightly ninja'd lol. Great minds.
  24. CAPE
    Pretty workable look for early March on the EPS. Legit -NAO dipole mitigating the awful Pacific enough to erase the SE ridge.
  25. CAPE
    A bit of a signal showing on the mean but a ton of spread among the members with lows all over the place. Still a ways out there obviously, but the look at H5 has cold pressing, suggesting the boundary may be to our south- a rare occurrence this winter and a necessary first step. Flatten that fucking SE ridge.
×
×
  • Create New...