CAPE

I suppose it's debatable how much value they have at range, but the context of my post in response to WxUSAF's post was more about expectations.

Nice overview of the late week system/potential from Mount Holly in their morning AFD. I now have the generic rain/snow in my forecast Wed night into Friday. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.. Looking at the larger scale big picture, the main story for the long range will be a continuing blocking pattern remaining in place over the north Atlantic. This will help keep surface high pressure dominant over eastern Canada which will also have a tendency to force more of a southern storm track as (as opposed to storms riding up to our north and west). In terms of the forecast details, Tuesday through Wednesday look to remain dry and on the cool side with a continuing northerly flow due to the high to our north. Looking towards late next week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast especially with regards to a potential storm system. The deterministic GFS really downplays the storm potential as it shears out approaching shortwave energy approaching from the west. Meanwhile the GEM Global, ECMWF, and some of the GFS ensemble perturbations depict a large lumbering upper level trough approaching from the central CONUS with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes giving way to secondary low development off the coast. If this were to verify, it could mean a fairly significant coastal storm affecting the region by next Thursday into Friday. But even then, there are still questions regarding precip types (rain vs. snow) as temperatures will be marginal. The bottom line, late week storm threat still in play but a lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast. We continued to stay close to the NBM with this forecast update and carry likely POPs for Thursday into Thursday night.

Looks cold for Christmas behind our coastal storm.

It's a potential MILLER A!!

Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol.

I am mostly looking ahead(for my yard). The late week deal might work out for some, most likely inland and north I think ultimately.

It doesn't quite come together in time at the surface for our region but there is more space/less squash, so more coastal development.

On the 6z GFS, the vort that was previously coming in behind the ocean low(50-50) and helping to squash the main wave, now misses and slides SW under the Canadian ridge and comes in behind our wave of interest.

Thanks! Yeah I'm with ya. Although I have become slightly intrigued with the late next week event, I know the setup, the date, and my climo lol. One or more will be the likely cause of failure. With the advertised pattern progression, just beyond that threat- around the 20th and beyond- looks like the best window for much of this region to possibly get on the board. Could be fun in mid/late December for a change.

Pretty nice Xmas eve h5 look on the 18z GEFS-

It's not very useful unless looking beyond day15. The current ens runs go out to the 25th. Also based on the 0z run, 3 cycles ago.

Yeah especially after a month+ of pattern chasing.

Exactly. Perfectly stated.

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

Slightly off the peak. When will the zero crossing be?

Ok enough of the negativity dude. Your Eagles are 11-1.

The GFS simulation likely isn't the ultimate outcome. That setup at the surface tho. I mean, the wall of HP with the low off the Canadian Maritimes. Goddamn. Slight adjustments..

If this were to be the ultimate outcome, I will take an inch or 2 at this juncture.

Basically the same outcome on the 18z GFS. Not enough spacing between the (would be) 50-50 low, and our wave of interest. Too much upper confluence/convergence on the backside of that vortex and it kills the lift.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD. They don't have a clue what's going to transpire later this week and aren't afraid to admit it. Love it. Guidance has grown more inconsistent regarding the next system expected to affect our weather later in the week. This is likely due in part to uncertainty regarding movement of blocking systems ahead of it, similar to what occurred at the end of this present week. 12Z GFS now suppresses the entire system to our south, keeping us dry and chilly. GGEM is fastest of all, spreading precip across the region Wednesday night through Thursday, with low pressure slowly pushing to our northeast Friday. ECMWF is slowest, holding precip back until later Thursday and holding it around through Friday. For this reason, held pops back somewhat, keeping them capped at low end likely, with the highest odds of precip being late Thursday. Enough cold air may persist from our strong high to the north to result in some onset wintry mix, but odds still favor a change to rain for most. However, this system`s outlook is in a considerable state of flux, so its something we`ll be watching closely over the next few days. GGEM and ECMWF do both share the theme of developing a strong, coast-hugging low pressure which could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, perhaps some coastal flooding, so its a system to keep plenty of eyes on...to say nothing of the 6Z GFS`s snowy depiction. Lots of uncertainty on this one, to say the least.

Where we are today in the Med/LR thread.

You talking pure Miller B, Modified? Hybrid? Semi-hybrid? I'll say this, a singular gulf coast low that tracks up the east coast(Miller A) doesn't happen that often, so all these other events that give us snow must be called something else. Miller C? Personally, I hate these labels. Not very useful.

I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy.