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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It's solid. Always easy to find too.
  2. CAPE
    Well there is some disagreement on the pattern progression. EPS keeps us on the mild side, while the GEPS is more like the GEFS but not as cold for the east. That said, we always know what he is gonna push.
  3. CAPE
    Seeing that TPV fall apart is a good sign. The last thing we want at this juncture is a strong, consolidated SPV, especially with a reflection at h5 in that location.
  4. CAPE
    Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.
  5. CAPE
    Upstream is clearly important regardless of the strength/persistence of any NA blocking. More so these days. We torched last year during that blocking episode because of a SER induced by a deep US western trough, itself induced by an impressive Aleutian ridge, courtesy of La Nina.
  6. CAPE
    This would be a pretty good look at range (a month later) if it persisted over multiple ens runs.
  7. CAPE
    Probably. While the upper ridge in the NAO space is there on that run, it's impotent as advertised, and it will probably be completely gone at 0z. Let me see it persist over multiple runs and on the means. Sometimes we see heights rise in the NAO domain briefly, but need perfect timing with a wave. What I like to see- and is most useful esp in a Nino- is a sustained blocking pattern(dipole) where we just wait for a legit wave to track underneath. Also snow chances suck regardless because it is November.
  8. CAPE
    To me, it means not useful/ not a sustained atmospheric blocking pattern. A transient -NAO is a crapshoot at best for our purposes. An actual(and more useful) sustained negative NAO is difficult to identify from a random op run or 2. A true NA blocking pattern is usually something that becomes evident over multiple ens runs.
  9. CAPE
    Thought he was more semi-retired. He is a legend in local forecasting. There surely is work for him if/when he wants it. His contributions are always value adding.
  10. CAPE
    It's bootleg and couples with an amplifying anomalous eastern US upper ridge, as a deep trough digs out west. Same thing we saw multiple times last winter. Just another random GFS op run though.
  11. CAPE
    Sipping on a 2022 BCBS for HH. So nice.
  12. CAPE
    That's 40 days away. Not a chance in hell these extended products have a clue what the NAO domain will actually look like. More likely the Pacific will be somewhat close to reality- looks Nino-ish. That said, I agree with you. NA blocking hasn't produced much here lately. Cross polar flow with advancing cold and a well timed wave along the thermal boundary has.
  13. CAPE
    The article with numbers is posted in the November LR thread.
  14. CAPE
  15. CAPE
    I think maybe too much attention is paid to the SST anomalies in attempting to characterize ENSO events, instead of the actual temperatures. Look at where the highest SSTs are, and that aligns with the location of strongest forcing- albeit relatively weak.
  16. CAPE
    The NPAC gyre and associated currents affect the PDO and the (warm) SSTs near Japan, but understanding all the variables and intricacies is beyond the scope of my interest lol. I have other things to do.
  17. CAPE
    Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive.
  18. CAPE
    Maybe you have finally figured it out. I doubt it though. I predict many Ji "disaster" posts based on LR GFS op runs.
  19. CAPE
    6z GFS: Hi Nina
  20. CAPE
    We need some precip. Soil is parched. Blowing leaves kicks up a lot of dust. The farmers doing their Fall thing create ground level dust storms.
  21. CAPE
    Not sure about that, but it should be a little better than an inch or whatever fell there last winter lol.
  22. CAPE
    Yeah, let it be mild in Nov. Who cares. Only point I am making is the longwave pattern can look like crap in mid to late Nov in a developing Nino, and there is not much to be gleaned from that wrt the character of winter as a whole. I really don't expect this Dec to be anything like 2009, but it could be decent. My thinking is mid Jan through Feb will be the favorable period where we may get just enough cold with a more favorable HL look, in conjunction with an established STJ.
  23. CAPE
    Not saying this is how it will go, but this is where we are at h5 on the means roughly 10 days from now.. Compare it to around the same time Nov of 2009- And this is where the pattern ended up a few weeks later-
  24. CAPE
    The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.
  25. CAPE
    High of 72 here, but temps dropped into the 60s mid/late afternoon with some clouds moving in. Currently 60.
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