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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    not a Barney fan?
  2. CAPE
    Awesome only 240 hours out! Pretty much on schedule. This has been the time frame for a chance of something (other than mild rain) per guidance for awhile.
  3. CAPE
    Pumped up HH run. Got me a 120 now.
  4. CAPE
    12z Euro and 18z GFS rolling out on WB at the same time. I need some weed.
  5. CAPE
    12z GEFS depicts a few minor disturbances moving through after the cold comes in with the wave around the 2nd, and then a more significant one for the 7th.
  6. CAPE
    Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means.
  7. CAPE
    HP is always on the move with progressive flow. That thing largely owes its existence to confluence from the strong TPV lobe rotating through, and there is nothing to slow its progress either.
  8. CAPE
    Fwiw the latest edition of the Euro weeklies suggest a transition to a workable h5 look for the last week of Feb. Maybe we bookend the month with crap in the middle.
  9. CAPE
    If that pattern locks in for the rest of the month then sure, but that isn't the point I was making. If the pattern improves moving towards the end of Feb, specifically on the Atlantic side, then still having some cold close by in Canada would be better than it being flooded with Pacific air with a +EPO/-PNA combo.
  10. CAPE
    That's been the general expectation as the TPV shifts more into the NAO domain and it goes impressively positive. For now it doesn't look like we torch, but definitely some moderation towards mid month. The Pacific side as currently modeled doesn't go hostile at least, with a ridge forecast to persist in the EPO/WPO space. That should keep our source region cold.
  11. CAPE
    Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3rd-4th with an actual cold airmass in place.
  12. CAPE
    Sleet-fest here. Pass.
  13. CAPE
    Not expecting it 2 weeks later either.
  14. CAPE
    The general idea has been there on the ens mean..
  15. CAPE
    It looks pretty decent as depicted. We are still in a Nina so not expecting PD 3 lol.
  16. CAPE
    GFS/GEFS and to some extent the CMC have looked interesting for around Feb 1-2. Might be a tad early, but I think it is probably the first/earliest trackable threat window.
  17. CAPE
    If that is close to reality probably the only failure modes are congrats SVA/NC, or bone dry. The latter seems less likely.
  18. CAPE
    Impressively cold look on the 12z EPS into the first week of Feb. No clear signal for precip at any given point yet, but overall suggestive of multiple chances with the boundary in a favorable spot.
  19. CAPE
    Still looks like colder air in place and active look on the GEFS beginning Feb 1-2 timeframe.
  20. CAPE
    Guess I'll skip that one lol.
  21. CAPE
    Which one.....he's had so many storms get delayed ive lost count haha I'm claiming all storms between Feb 1 and 8.
  22. CAPE
    Had 2 at the very beginning.
  23. CAPE
    Get a real OC, sign Lamar, a legit WR, and we good to go next season!
  24. CAPE
    Good to know the Ravens D is top tier I guess. Bills are helpless against that offense.
  25. CAPE
    Snow is coming down good now too.
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