CAPE
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12z EPS Super impressive and a colder look. Classic -NAO dipole. Also hinting at something trackable around the 8th.
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You need to post more dude. Things are looking promising. We are on the doorstep of Dec and the advertised look is stellar for a change. Sure all sorts of shit can go wrong, but rather the guidance be teasing us with something favorable vs the usual shutout look lol.
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I noticed that too. That TPV near the sea of Okhotsk has been a strong/stable feature, and as advertised has been periodically knocking down the EPO ridge. It seems to weaken and retro a bit in the LR on today's GEFS, morphing into more of an Aleutian low and allowing the -EPO to remain more intact. That feature is critical in dictating the character of the Pac ridge imo.
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Yeah that's the way to mitigate it. -EPO, -AO, -NAO. It might work for us with waves taking the southern route and ejecting eastward, which is sometimes difficult to achieve in a Nina.
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12z GEFS suggests a trackable wave around the 8th.
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This is the clean, uncomplicated way we get on the board as the favorable pattern is unfolding. Monster west based -NAO with a quasi-stationary vortex underneath- a bit too southwestward displaced so the wave ends up somewhat suppressed here. Overall a classic look up top though. Guidance should be spitting out more looks like this going forward.
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Maybe this one? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/history-does-not-support-a-terribly-snow-winter-in-dc/2012/11/20/06411868-333f-11e2-9cfa- Also found this.. e41bac906cc9_blog.htmlhttp://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/11/why_was_last_year_so_snowy_par.html
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A persistent -AO is probably the number one index for increased chances of a fun winter in the MA. I usually post this once every winter because it is such a great CWG article by Wes detailing the most important indices and combos for cold/snow in the DC area. Every MA snow weenie should read this at least once. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/
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WDI?
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This is a really nice look up top, and might be the period where something of interest could transpire.
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The -NAO on the EPS has looked more impressive and with better placement(further south across GL) than the GEFS on recent runs. Lets hope the Europeans are more correct here. We are likely going to need a stout block to overcome early-mid Dec climo and ofc Nina tendencies.
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Agree that period has looked interesting on the ens runs, with colder air bleeding south behind a wave around the 4-5th. GEFS has been hinting at additional pieces of energy riding along the boundary in the days that follow, with colder air in place.
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That's not the only repost from the NE forum over the past few days, just to give a broader context. And I am glad you found it helpful!
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Makes sense. I was thinking GodDamn, didn't score.
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I watched the whole match but no idea if a draw is good for the US at this point. Very entertaining though.
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To be clear, I am referring to reposting of redundant model guidance maps that have literally just been posted and discussed by folks in this thread. Seems like it should add some new insight/a unique perspective.
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Not sure, but most guidance is suppressing it in ph7 or just as it progresses to ph8. The general tendency in a Nina is for convection to not progress far into the western Pac, ofc that is somewhat dependent on the specific location of the SST anomalies.
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The advertised looks on both the EPS and GEFS are acceptable at this range- the differences are probably related to the MJO wave progression, with the EPS moving it more quickly through phase 7 then dissipating it.
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Reposting stuff like this from the NE forum really doesn't add value to the discussion here tbh.
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Probably a little soon the way things look now. Maybe more towards the 10th. I agree with @WxUSAF that a bit of can kicking with peak RELOAD towards mid to late month wouldn't be a bad thing.
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It's a prominent feature of a Nina. Keeping it somewhat in check is a constant battle for our purposes. Ideally it would be more poleward over AK rather than broad and flat south of the Aleutians. What the models are depicting is a bit of both over the next 10 days or so, and the vortex near Okhotsk will continue to influence the character of that ridge. We need the -NAO to be legit and west based to counter the tendency for a trough out west and to keep the SE ridge flat.
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You know the drill with the LR guidance.
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This panel captures the inversion pretty well.
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28 here too Looks like a good chance of hitting 60+ today. High yesterday was 58.
