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Actually the 1989 storm around Thanksgiving was the last significant Nov storm I recall. It was actually better for eastern areas I think- had a solid 6 inches here. We have had a few coatings here and there since but mostly we just fail lol. We due!
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Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.
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12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z in the big picture. Has a coastal storm with a decent look up top. It's not perfect but we rarely do perfect. The primary issue on the mean is not quite cold enough this run.
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Volatile. Weeeeeee!
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Close the shades y'all. It's over.
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That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.
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Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.
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^Just in case some context was needed to go along with the invaluable snow maps posted in isolation above.
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EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there.
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The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.
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Latest on the LES event. Looks like there will still be snow showers during the game on Sunday, but most of the snow will have fallen by then. Let's see how efficient they are at removal at the stadium.
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Yeah as advertised that is just the -NAO keeping us a tad on the cool side at best. If he wants to use an extended tool to WOOF over that period, he could make a better case using the 12z CFS depiction.
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It only has like 6 different lows lol. But yeah its a mild rain storm with cold coming in behind verbatim. Has it raining Thanksgiving evening into Friday.
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At 200+ hours out it's probably not worth posting individual panels for snow/p-type every run. The general idea is the same as the previous run and the biggest question at this juncture, should there be a storm, is how much cold can get involved.
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Getting the AK ridge more eastward and poleward is a big deal in a Nina. If we get that feature in a favorable position with some persistence we can get cold and keep the SE ridge suppressed. We shall see about the AO/NAO, but it appears the HL will be favorable for a time at least.
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We really just can't know beyond a couple weeks. Keep an eye on the advertised look on the ens means, the MJO forecast, and what the Pacific jet is doing. The Extended/weekly tools going out 4-6 weeks are what they are. Fun to look at when they show something nice, but high uncertainty and prone to flip-flopping over a few runs.
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Generally yes on both. Biggest issue is still going to be climo for the lowlands.
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Signal for something during that timeframe on the EPS too. Looks like a Miller B type evolution, which isn't surprising. Yes the general pattern for that period is decent enough as advertised, esp the developing -NAO and 50-50 low.
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Potential post Turkey Day storm on the GEFS. A handful of members are semi-interesting.
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These snowfall forecasts are always the generic NW to SE gradient. Hard to predict what specific area might get 'bonus' snow. That said, it is pretty typical to see a bit of a dead zone in the I-95 corridor of the MA in a Nina, and ofc DC itself generally struggles to get snow more than immediate surrounding areas.
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0.92"
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That was a super close miss for I-95. It worked out pretty well for places east, esp the immediate coast. Hard to do better than that setup in a Nina. Always take that pattern and let the chips fall.
