CAPE

Guidance has been waffling a bit from run to run, but seems to be moving towards a pretty favorable look. Pac jet configuration and MJO progression are no doubt big factors, along with default Nina tendencies.

Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up.

Well maybe 2 then.

This is pretty hot.

I know of one who won't be interjecting.

So much optimism about the pattern progression. Where are the debs speculating about what could go wrong?

That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave.

I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look.

Low of 25

Latest edition of the Euro weeklies at h5 plus surface temp anomalies, one week beyond the 0z EPS run it initialized off of. We see the Okhotsk vortex continue to weaken, and the pattern progressing accordingly with +heights building in the EPO domain, and ditto in the NAO domain. A pretty nice look. Worth noting the 12z EPS took a slight step back in weakening that vortex as compared to the 0z run.

Yeah pretty solid. Ideal radiational cooling conditions with low dews, no wind, clear skies. Air mass of Canadian continental origin. Always radiate well imy with no UHI and proximity away from either bay. Temp of 23 here in Easton closer to the water is also solid.

Towards the end of the 0z EPS run the vortex near Okhotsk Sea appears to weaken/split, and the Pac pattern shows improvement. Meanwhile a nicely positioned ridge in the NAO domain is depicted. GEFS seems to be heading in the same direction with the h5 pattern.

19 at 4am. Kept the wood stove going all night. Heat pump hasn't kicked on once.

The actual highlands lol. Allegheny front. Legit microclimate. I lived up your way for 10+ years, and it's nice compared to the lowlands and cities, but its a far cry from places like Canaan and Deep Creek.

A travesty the offense looked so inefficient with so much time to rest players and prepare for an inferior team at home. Lamar won't sniff MVP numbers in this offense, so I guess that works in the favor of the Raven's front office in negotiations. When Caldwell was in the building a few weeks ago, they should have made him an offer he couldn't refuse. He took over for a shitty OC and a struggling offense in mid season once, and they won a SB. Made Flacco look like Joe Montana, and earned him the big payday. A 7-3 record and a fairly easy schedule going forward can lure you into thinking this team can go deep into the playoffs, but it won't happen unless the D is historically good. This offense is not equipped to beat the Chiefs or Bills. Best case is we get Gus and Dobbins back and can dominate on the ground and use the TEs ala 2019. That formula didn't get them far in the post season though.

High of 36 early. Currently 31. Forecast low of 22 tonight, up from 20 in this mornings forecast. We'll see.

It's still November though, and its way too warm for frozen on those maps you posted. It has looked that way for many runs. I guess "cold around" is subjective. It has looked like a possibility of at least some snow for the western highlands on the backside for awhile now, but it's a different world out there.

Ugly win, but a win. Lamar was efficient passing, despite the pass limited offensive 'scheme' of you know who. Good news is the defense is trustworthy again, and might be on the way to being a dominant unit(they will need to be). Bad news- Roman is still the OC, and Stanley appears to have reinjured his twice surgically repaired ankle. Hoping for the best for him.

His offense is all run the ball/control the clock/set up some easy passes. Beyond that.. nothin.

Greg Roman

They need to win this game at home though. This was supposed to be an easy one( lol). Signs of life from the offense might be a good start..

Ravens look flat so far. Playing one game in 20+ days sounds good for getting guys healthy, but maybe not so much for staying sharp.

I have the same sort of 'intuition' you do wrt this Oct being the antithesis of last year, and the pattern for the most part has maintained the tendency to be chilly in the east and for warm periods to not lock in. Ofc boilerplate Nina says we are fighting a trough out west. NA blocking can offset that to a degree but best case is the NPAC ridge is displaced east and poleward more times than not. Give me a -EPO with a neutral AO/NAO and I will take my chances. Recent Ninas have found ways to snow in the MA lowlands with progressive patterns that bring the cold.

Just did a hike at Tuckahoe. Invigorating. Mostly in the woods so the wind wasn't awful. Currently 35.

Yeah I have accepted December is prime Fall weather here. Just give me cool to chilly weather. Love doing outdoor projects and pre Spring yard work now through Xmas. So much better than dealing with warm/humid and bugs.