CAPE

I remember. I think that was the winter where we had a really good set up in one particular event with a -NAO, lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes and it snowed in the NW burbs with marginal temps and rained on the coastal plain. That would have historically been a mostly snow event for the entire region.

The GL low wrecks our chances at 18z. As for the general set up- being just underneath a TPV sliding eastward with relatively weak elongated vorticity ribbons ejecting eastward underneath in fast moving flow, the area of 'enhanced' precip is going to be skinny N to S and stretched W to E. And only part of that is going to be frozen.

HH GEFS initial wave-

It was clear a few panels earlier than what I posted.

All our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on random interplay and timing between waves. What a dumb fucking hobby.

The extra dig in the NS vorticity right here- ..induces LP at the surface. We cooked at that point.

Not uncommon with a persistent western US trough. Puts those areas at times on the cold side of the thermal boundary. They might be souther, but its the wester that helps them in this case.

Getting primed for HH King.

Friday HH is upon us. Crucial runs. 120 time for me. LFG!

Mine was an all natural cocktail . You should give it a go. I started using it for muscle recovery (and deep sleep) after workouts. Might not be as effective as meds for everyone. I like going the natural supp route when possible.

Anything goes until HH?

Plenty of stuff helps lol. I was simply offering another option and something I have used for years.

Zinc picolinate, Magnesium Glycinate, B6, and add 2-3 mg of Melatonin if needed. Great all natural supplement cocktail for muscle recovery and a deep sleep with some wild ass dreams.

The initial wave has actually trended colder overall from a few days ago. Cold comes in just ahead/during vs behind. That is a signal for 1-3" for N MD as it stands now, with places further south ending as snow.

Yum. Much better than the stuff H20 is into lol.

How about this- The western ridge amps up, folds over, and the avocado of doom tracks southward over NE bringing single digit temps to the MA and snow to Charleston SC.

A 5-day anomaly doesn't tell the story here though. The initial wave gets precip further north, but the cold air is just advancing southward through our area- comes in towards the tail end. For the second wave colder air is entrenched and the wave tracks further south. Both waves are relatively weak, and the lower res ensembles might not be accurately depicting the degree of lift into the cold air. With a tight thermal boundary even a weakish wave can generate some decent precip.

Not sure it will play out that way. You have the WDI going up that way, along with better snow climo.

Pretty much lol. Still a ways to go. The initial wave could be better for northern areas, and the second one more suppressed, leaving places in between in the jip zone. That scenario is depicted on some of the ens members.

It is looking decidedly more winter-like for next week, with colder air pressing southeastward and placing the thermal boundary clearly in a more favorable position for the first time since probably late December. We have tracked this period for many days and it is now on the doorstep. My expectations were not for some super juiced up wave with a foot+ of snow, but rather a few chances at light to moderate events- we normally need a few shots in any favorable window to hit on one. Signal has been there on the means, and the op runs are now in a range where we can get a better idea on the specifics of how this will evolve. A warning level snow event looks possible next week somewhere in the MA. Hopefully we see a flush hit right across our region.

That's the nature of this setup with the TPV sliding eastward. The exact position and timing of that feature in conjunction with the disturbances moving east underneath is everything.

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

Too much NS vorticity right on top so not much of a chance this run.

0z EPS generally favors areas to our north(PA-SNE) for frozen for the Feb 1 wave, but cold presses south during the period while precip is falling so some frozen through our area. It all looks pretty light. Next wave for late next week has colder air in place, with some snow suggested through much of MD and VA but again looks light, with heavier precip further south. 0z GEFS is similar- for both waves the better precip is to our south in NC, with some frozen on the northern edge of the precip shield. Wave 2 has snow focused more to our south over VA and N NC. Again, looks light. The theme for next week- modest waves, moisture overrunning colder air, with a couple 1-3 maybe 2-4 chances on the means.

Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week.