CAPE

Stanley inactive and now Mekari is hurt and questionable to return.

My pick for the Ravens game today- Broncos 5, Ravens 3

The ens runs of 5-7 days ago did have that ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK, sending a TPV lobe southward while bridging with the developing -NAO ridge over GL. That progression was in error, but at the time it looked as though we might be set up for at least a modest event in the Dec 8-12 window. Even if that had worked out climo was always going to be an issue.

My sense for the window around the 9th was a shot at something minor- a chance for some to get on the board early with the initial step down to a colder pattern. Despite the usual can kicking on guidance, that chance is actually still there. Not sure about your 70 call though. Maybe 60.

It was so close, and the overall h5 look was about as good as it gets in a Nina. Devil in the details.

The overall look on the EPS- the pattern progression, especially in the PNA/EPO domains, the orientation of the NAO block, pretty much everything-is a little better than the GEFS. Hopefully it ends up being closer to reality. Agreed the pattern needs some time to 'mature'. Probably looking at beyond mid month for any significant frozen potential for the MA lowlands.

Wrt the end of week event.. We have discussed the general setup here for awhile, and while not as cold a period as was suggested 4-5 days ago, there is still potential for a little frozen (for some). A strong HP building over eastern Canada should allow some colder air to push southward ahead of the approaching shortwave. The shortwave/ associated surface low generally looks to track NW into the OV on most guidance, GFS being further NW. At this point it appears redevelopment may occur off the MA coast- more likely if that HP is stronger/stays in place longer. It's a complex setup but one that could produce some frozen at least for a time, further N being favored ofc. That high will be sliding northeastward (quicker on the GFS) and this is right at the beginning stages of a major pattern change with limited cold available, so keep expectations in check lol. Using the Euro(better outcome) for illustrative purposes-

Yeah I get it, but we end up getting what we get regardless lol. As you know we can luck into a good event or two even if the overall pattern is crap. If the NA blocking ends up short lived, maybe we can roll the dice with an EPO ridge, as some of the extended guidance is suggesting heading into Jan. A bit of help(well timed) in the NA can work if we have a mechanism to get the cold here. This is mostly how we roll. Modeled 'perfect' patterns don't materialize or are short lived, and we get our snow in a pattern with warts.

The pattern was never going to just switch. Major pattern changes happen in steps. It is going to take a bit longer than originally modeled, which is pretty common. Better to have the pattern 'mature' in mid to late December or even a bit later when we are moving into more favorable climo for snow. Why waste a nice pattern in a period where it will most likely produce cold rain or slop.

The crazy wave breaking between the Okhotsk/Siberian TPV and the Aleutian ridge is what the guidance missed several days ago. That TPV lobe remains stronger than was previously depicted and ends up digging south and breaking the ridge bridge, thus enhancing the -PNA. Probably related to -EAMT/ NPJ retraction. Compared to the same period several days ago-

0.65" total here. It has been pretty wet lately. Wind picking up now.

Ji should be along soon to declare the 6z GFS run a disaster.

..and we have a new page.

why post one link when you can embed entire threads?

^I knew that was coming at some point.

Thanks Chuck. What a total buzzkill on my buzz.

They so drool worthy tho. Better than reality.

My post just above this one is suggestive of exactly this, but largely because of the conflicting signals.(-PNA teleconnects to eastern ridge, -NAO to eastern trough)

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath. It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

The GFS simply can't resolve the battle between the Nina tendency of a -PNA, and a developing -NAO at this range. There will be some wild stuff from run to run that will change on a dime. The solutions will be all over the place. GEFS will be a little steadier, but the majority of members seem to cluster around the deterministic solution from each cycle. Not too helpful in reducing the uncertainty.

Here is your Friday Happy hour pick-me-up(along with a drink) for those who are in need. Right where we want it.

-AO. It fundamentally increases the chances that cold air masses can (frequently) move from the high latitude source regions and migrate into the midlatitudes. That is how it increases snow chances- we need the cold. A -EPO can also bring cold, but can also tend to be on the dry side and absent a -AO/NAO, the pattern is more progressive with lots of variability in storm tracks. We have to then consider the other indices, such as ENSO state and PNA phase, along with climo, to determine how much our snow chances are increased.

You mean the epic pattern won't be in place by then? But it was supposed to be, i'm sure. DELAYED MEANS DENIED!!!!

You can do whatever you want. Don is great and his posts add lots of value to discussions. I only mentioned it before because you made 3 or 4 reposts of WB maps and they had already been posted and discussed at length in the thread here.

21 here A bit colder than I was expecting this morning.