CAPE

Front end of the window for an uncomplicated modest wave riding along the boundary just to our south imo. This may not a big deal(or could be nothing), but a chance of flakes falling to maybe a couple inch type deal. A bigger ticket potential lies few days beyond this, maybe as soon as the 13th.

A ton of snow for coastal DE. Dry at BWI.

Check out the amplitude of the EPO ridge at the very end of the GEFSX run. In conjunction with the -AO/NAO. That trifecta is pretty rare, and maybe a meteorologically impossible occurrence according to at least one on this site. @psuhoffman

I'll take this look leading up to Xmas. I mean, I'd roll with it anytime between now and March.

Something a little interesting on the 0z Euro ens, in the window where we might expect to see a colder event with the favorable pattern established.

Lolz Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize.

Get well soon friend!

It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest.

Decent rain event. 0.57"

As crappy as the offense was, the defense blew that one. 7 point lead, 2 mins left. 4th down and forever. Just terrible.

Well deserved loss for the Ravens. They needed it. Can't keep winning ugly against bad teams and thinking its all good. Changes are needed.

How many TD passes does Lamar have in the last 4+ games? 2? QBs on bad teams manage to throw 1 or 2 by accident lol. Fucking Roman is bad but the receivers are also nonexistent.

Wonder if the FO will ever get tired of Roman and his pee wee level offense. What a joke.

Latest GEFSX fwiw. Good overall look mid to late month, and apparently we are getting a white Christmas.

Actually pouring here now. NINA!!!!

I wouldn't say its a shame lol. The deterministic guidance should be depicting the good stuff if its going to be real- the specific details will just shift all over the place from run to run at this range.

After seeing drizzle/light rain earlier, raining moderately now. 0.15" We shall see if the half to three quarters forecast was a good one.

That will be a toasty period, relatively speaking. Easily could see a couple days into the 60s.

Suppressed wave on the 12z GFS with some snow across NC on the 10th. Saw a similar outcome on the 12z GFS yesterday, although it got some light snow into the southern part of our area. Good sign imo seeing waves producing frozen to our south on guidance at this juncture. Hopefully we see more of these type outcomes over the next several days.

If the pattern evolves as currently depicted, realistically any frozen potential is beyond day 10. Continuing to see indications of waves sliding along the boundary in the Dec 8-12 window, but its pretty scattered wrt timing among ensemble members as expected this far out.

Well we have tracked the hell out of this advertised upcoming pattern, so I suppose now we keep checking to see if it holds or morphs, and eventually materializes. Then we will see if it actually delivers.

High of 57 here. Lovely day to be outside doing whatever. Tomorrow looks like a washout. Good day to be inside watching the Ravens dominate the lowly Jags.

He already started a thread in the NE subforum.

Except for the high desert of Denver lol. Downsloping ftl.

We overdue for a wire to wire winter of HL blocking. Get it established early. In addition to climo, I am a believer in persistence.