CAPE

Re: last winter. Jan into early Feb was a pretty cold period, and there were 3 all-snow events for eastern areas during January. Other areas in our region got in on at least one of those. The pattern was progressive, and favorable for late/offshore coastal development with legit cold air and the thermal boundary displaced eastward, but it wasn't just one lucky/fluky wave. For the region overall I suppose you can say it was god awful, but areas to the NW did at least okay in Feb and March iirc. It was the the in-between areas along I-95 that mostly missed out, and as you have said- that's pretty typical in a Nina. It's ultimately an IMBY deal, so yes I remember it as a pretty good winter even though Feb/March yielded nothing of significance. Could have easily ended up with 25-30".

He already informed me lol. Lets just get some snow up in here.

lol no. I know full well the reality but prefer to track the chances when they present themselves. I know what the odds are and the ways it can't work. No fun beating that dead horse.

Bad trends!!

Nah that was just for you.

Remember I claimed all storms in the Feb 1-8 window. Most y'all think its dead anyway lol.

Interesting look.

Not really seeing it outside of run to run noise. The window is still roughly the first 8-10 days of Feb. Better h5 look than 12z yesterday imo.

Some snow mainly for places just to our SE.

Low solar and many -NAO years that decade. I did a year by year analysis of the h5 composites and many of those winters were impressively cold in the midlatitudes- some Nina, some Nino, some Neutral. Some of those looks.. just hard to imagine seeing them today.

Didn't realize he was predicting a +PNA. That's a switch lol. But yeah we shall see if the hints on the latest guidance of a +PNA is a mirage. If that's real, the mid month period might be workable. Most extended products have the NAO trending towards neutral/negative just after mid month fwiw.

But it's been clear the rest of Jan was toast minus front end slop chances for the NW crew this week. You have been honking about Feb 4-7 for days now. Well yeah, that is still 10 days out. The ens means continue to advertise chances for early February.

I missed that one lol. If we have a ++NAO, that likely means there is a +AO, so that's not favorable for cold and snow chances here. There are exceptions, like a -EPO/+PNA driven pattern, which can bring the cold but frozen events tend to be light to moderate from weaker waves, and amped systems tend to track inland or cut west.

It's not complicated, so that's a plus. We always have the failure modes.

There is a neutral PNA look towards the end of the EPS and GEPS runs, with hints of it trending positive. GEFS suggestive of this too. Have to see how that plays out. Looks like the NPJ retracts a bit but haven't looked into it enough to get an idea if that is something of persistence going forward. It sure would help the mid month period.

Not much has changed on the means. The GEFS and GEPS hint at an initial wave on Feb 1, then another one right on its heels a day later with colder air involved. I didn't dig into the members so it could just be timing differences, but the upshot is there is a chance for some frozen as the cold arrives in the Feb 1-3 window. There are other chances beyond that with colder air in place. We begin to moderate around the 10th as the TPV lifts out and the NAO trends significantly positive.

You own a mountain dude.

That is different for sure. At least we have an alternative failure mode on the table. The cutter thing got boring ages ago.

I get it. This 'song and dance' happens almost every winter though. At least the ensembles provide some degree of stability when tracking patterns in the LR. Lay off the op runs lol.

For this threat window. Go play video games if you don't want to properly participate in the discussion lol.

12z EPS has a similar look with a wave and cold pressing

First chance.

The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop?

Lets review: The modeled period of interest with actual cold in place for days now has been Feb 1 at the earliest, to perhaps the 10th. Strongest signal for a wave or 2 has been the 2nd through the 8th. That really has not changed.

Aligns well with recent runs of the ens mean.