CAPE

Because it goes against the Nina background state, which tends to favor convection near the MC.

Latest Euro weeklies were meh too. CFS has an impressive -EPO towards the end of Dec. Patience. Wonder if DT is still woofing about early Dec. He was basing that on the GEFSX lol.

Nice late December-like day today. Hopefully we get a couple in December.

Tonight tho.

Imagine if the reload never comes.

Low of 30. Temp rising a bit early this morning ahead of the cold front. 32 now.

I just took a look at the latest MJO forecast plots heading into Dec, and most guidance has the forcing progressing into phase 7. The Euro ensemble dissipates it there, and appears headed for reemergence back towards the MC. Euro ext keeps it in phase 7(does a loop into and out of COD), GEFS and GEFSX keep it at a decent amplitude and heading towards phase 8. Other guidance is mixed but tendency is into phase 7 then COD. Ideally we want the forcing to progress into Ph 8, 1 to help offset the Nina background state and encourage reshuffling of the Pacific pattern to something more serviceable, with the Pac ridge shifted eastward/poleward over AK.

Almost every "good" pattern we can conceive of is wasted in November. That same pattern in mid Jan into Feb would be impressively cold. Probably bone dry too lol.

Chill. It's just an observation based on current model guidance depiction over the next couple weeks. Not rocket science. If it locks in for the next 3 months, so be it. Everyone will survive.

Low of 27 again.

^excellent post.

Snippet from NWS Buffalo AFD this morning- .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Continues... Two intense plumes of lake effect snow with snowfall rates of at least 3 inches per hour will continue northeast of the Lakes today and tonight. Thundersnow will remain possible near the lakes through tonight as well as blowing snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. With this update will shift the axis of heaviest snow off Lake Erie a few miles southward. Areas to the north of the City of Buffalo and the airport will likely receive little to no additional accumulation through the day. The heaviest snow will be along a line from Lackawanna and Hamburg inland towards West Seneca and Cheektowaga and Lancaster.

Low of 27. Coldest so far this Fall.

Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking.

That ramped up quick. The ground was bare with some light snow falling when I posted that link.

Thundersnow there already. Saw several flashes of lightning on that cam only watching for a few mins.

Happens all the time in November.

Snowing in Buffalo now. Looks to get serious pretty quickly.

Definitely Miller B flavor on the GEFS. Colder as the coastal gets going is implied, so maybe rain to snow deal.

That trailing energy looks like fun for the Allegheny front.

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

Oh its different aright lol.

You pay attention to them, but at this range you give much more weight to the ens runs to minimize the uncertainty associated with the deterministic guidance.

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.