CAPE

This is a pretty cool interactive resource. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/mjoanalogs.html

this is pretty decent. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Trust me, no shell here. And I am a teacher.

18z GEFS a bit further south, offshore, slightly weaker signal than 12z. Noise. On to the next cycle.

Ok sorry if I misinterpreted, but calling a deterministic model atrocious and asking about validation scores based on one op run 10 days out makes it sound like you are worried, despite explicitly saying you aren't immediately after.

You seem a little skittish. Atrocious model? Validation chart? lol it's an op run 10 days out. Chill.

No lol. Had around 20" here, almost all of it in Jan. The beaches did better.

Just had a bit of a downpour that bumped the total up to 0.14"

I am all about getting snow that I can go out in and experience and enjoy. That means having at least a few days of actual cold. Even a few inches will do. Last Jan was fantastic for that here. We pretty much know when we are in for a biggie as the signal on guidance typically locks in within 5 days, and in most cases that involves a Nino.

Weather weenies, like most people, get caught up in the emotion of the moment. It was pretty clear at the time that the advertised pattern was not close to a 'can't miss'.

The warmth underperformed a bit I suppose? High of 61, and not much rain at all here. Less than a tenth. Not complaining- the soil is plenty wet. Need it to dry out a little so it doesn't eat all the snow that's coming.

When most here speak of 'big ones' it's usually in reference to a KU. Well, except for ravensrule that is.

He knows this.

There is literally no other viable solution. They have done away with the bye week before, so they can certainly do it now given the circumstances.

EPS lays out the test case for the Hudson Bay High lol.

Pretty classic surface depiction for a MA snowstorm.

I was just pointing out that there are more issues with timing and spacing in a progressive flow regime, with vortices on the move through the 50-50 space. Just saw that to a degree with the Euro run.

A couple things to consider wrt the pattern progression from mid month forward. Guidance has the MJO moving into 'favorable' phases for Jan-Feb. We have these 2 areas of anomalously low h5 heights in close proximity(a trough bridge), which seems unsustainable. Natural progression is for a ridge to develop in between, and that aligns with what is typically expected given the MJO forecast. The GEFS appears to be doing just that at the end of the run. I mentioned this in my post earlier, as the GEFS extended continues that progression to a more favorable h5 look for the last week of Jan. Who knows if this is correct, but it seems at least as plausible as looking at a snapshot from a mean and claiming another torch is coming.

I think they will have to given the likely impacts on seeding/home field. Probably cancel the useless pro bowl and shift the playoffs back a week.

Getting a useful 50-50 low in a progressive pattern is a bit of a crapshoot. Not the same has having a low there stuck under a block.

The late Sunday into Monday wave has some potential for a little frozen for the northern edge of our region. A little adjustment in that NS vorticity sliding across Hudson Bay and this could be a little colder/further south.

Agree. That is an active look verbatim, and even better if we get a little help in the NAO domain.

Not sure on that, but it has been pretty consistent with a signal around mid month, as has the GEFS. The mean low position is a tad offshore which is pretty typical in a progressive pattern. The exact position/amplitude of the western ridge as it shifts east will be critical.

Latest GEFSX indicates that the persistent trough off the west coast will shift eastward with a ridge building in the PNA/EPO space for late Jan. There are hints of that at the end of the latest GEFS runs. Perhaps an indication of the MJO forcing shifting into the western Pac, with some modulation of the Pacific jet. The general HL look is also better, with hints of a -NAO.