CAPE

The next threat beyond the initial threat on the on the means. Differences between the EPS and GEFS on how things evolve 10 days out, but seeing a signal for storm potential with coastal development.

You gotta love the look at the end of the 0z EPS run. The trifecta up top with ideal west based -NAO, and just entering the better snow climo window at that point for the MA lowlands.

0z Euro ens and GEFS both have the wave for Dec 9-10. A decent setup as advertised. In both cases the wave weakens as it moves eastward towards the coast, more so on the EPS. Indications of another wave on its heels, esp on the EPS, which aligns with the 0z Euro op- it weakens the initial wave with a more significant one developing in the south central US and moving east a couple days later. Just at the initial stage in the evolution of the pattern at this point, and my sense on this period has been that it might offer a chance to get on the board early for some. At this point it looks like places further inland/southwest in our region might have the best shot.

Worse with the GFS/GEFS apparently. Dumpster fire and stuff. It must be right.

I suppose it is arbitrary whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about the evolution of the upcoming advertised pattern. If one is pessimistic they are probably now at the stage of nitpicking details that may or may not be valid or even matter, and headed for full on perpetually telling us about everything that can(will) go wrong. In the end, nothing anyone thinks will happen has any influence on actual outcome. Given that, sure seems like having an optimistic outlook is a heck of a lot more healthy and fun.

The newbs are getting a tad panicky over how the pattern might have some unfavorable characteristic as it evolves. Don't we always get the perfect pattern in a Nina?

The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS.

The pattern might just morph from one favorable configuration to another, like the CFS is suggesting. Not typically how things roll, but this could be one of those winters.

I mentioned Miller B so probably at least one on edge.

Caldwell is available I believe..

Please make it happen. Probably the only way we can get rid of him.

0z EPS for the 12-13th window where a more significant event could materialize involving a coastal low. A decent signal has been there in recent runs on the means. This one may be more complex.. Miller B-ish.

0z Euro runs a wave to our south on the 10th and snows on VA. Near hit. Clean and simple. The setup is nice. Highs and lows positioned where we want them for a frozen event. Low pressure ideally would be further NE off the Maritimes to avoid damping/suppressing the wave as it heads towards the coast, but it is an op run that shows the generally favorable setups we can get with a legit -NAO. 0z GFS has a modest wave with a similar outcome in the same window, a bit earlier.

Well that similarity IS there, but yes, unusual.

I loved interacting with him here, and it would be great if he decided to come back and contribute, but that is his decision. He chooses not to post here dude. None of my business as to why.

Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up here over the next 3 months.

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.

I've talked to him several times by message here, and he seems content. I see him liking posts here. If he has some reason for not wanting to make posts that's his decision and its fine. To the casual observer it looks like you have an axe to grind and it has nothing to do with Mitch.

Textbook definition of a true west based block from around hour 160 through 342. Thing of beauty with the TPV vortices just shedding off and rotating underneath. Nowhere to go. I tried making an animated gif on WB but no idea how to save it lol.

It's radical. These kind of looks were seemingly extinct. This shiz needs to verify.

A bit too far south- snows on NC- but guidance continues to flash the potential around the 12th now. This might not be a big dog, for those who are hunting that sort of thing, but looking like a window for possibly a solid event. Starting to see some wild runs now and more to come. Fun times(for a change) in Dec.

CFS sniffed out the blocky look that now appears imminent pretty early. There isn't much not to like about that look. Can even see the indication of energy taking the southern route under the ridge and ejecting eastward.

CFS also going Aleutian low/ amped EPO ridge at the end of Dec into Jan. This would bring legit cold.

Based on the advertised progression that makes some sense. We haven't done big Dec snow often, esp lately, so we shall see how much a milder climo factors in. These patterns don't tend to be super cold, but generally just cold enough, which in the past has worked out pretty well.

Seeing some hints among the members for something around the 12th-13th. These blocky patterns sometimes have to mature a bit before we get our chances, but this timeframe might be the first shot at a significant event for the MA. 6 hour panels so there are a few others prior to and after this window.