CAPE

The NAM looks much more realistic than the GFS, but even that is probably overdone with snow behind the front. Every other model depicts the typical outcome in these situations.

It's good to see the tendency for +Heights continuing over Greenland on the means. Mostly just need to get the Pacific resorted.

You can always just ignore it and hope the epic pattern will continue.

Pattern shift. Instead of reds in the HL and blues in the mid lats, it's inverted. If the extended guidance is to be believed, this is a brief reshuffle and then back to a more favorable look by mid Jan.

This is why I am not really enthused for a winter storm chance around the 28th. As the EPO ridge breaks down, the Aleutian trough morphs into a monstrous TPV and shifts over AK, and the cold pattern rapidly breaks down as Pacific puke takes hold and heights build over the central and eastern US. We will see how long it lasts but right now New Years into the beginning of Jan looks quite mild.

That's true, but they still need a functional passing game to compete with the top tier AFC teams. Right now, it isn't even close.

Hopefully Watkins can avoid the same fate for a game or 2 lol. His history suggests a minor miracle is in order.

Brought some firewood up under the front porch for the cold weekend, and now sipping a 120. Heading to Rehoboth tomorrow and no work until next Tuesday. My fav time of year, regardless of whether or not it's cold or snows.

GFS still looks decent for some widespread snow showers.

Well damn, didn't think it would happen, but the reason it did is because Duvernay now has a foot injury lol. Ravens can't win. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10059294-ravens-rumors-sammy-watkins-claimed-on-waivers-after-packers-release

Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places.

Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze? Friday Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 17.

Not quite as bullish as I was several days ago. Has the look of cold moderating/retreating, and will need some upstream cooperation in order for the wave to not get shunted offshore. The Canadian has had the best evolution and strongest signal on the ens mean, but today it looked weaker/offshore. Still time.

It's the Tony Pann coastal low!!!

lol

Euro/CMC vs. GFS again? I'm just rooting for that little sliver of gray to shift north a bit for mby flizzard. CMC has it too and its even more pronounced.

Progressive flow and the position/orientation of the upstream ridge are key factors influencing the ability of the shortwave to gain latitude before heading off the coast. CMC gets it done by having the ridge axis further west at the point the shortwave drops down. Another factor is the position and strength of the northern stream vortex over eastern Canada- it's stronger and digs further south on the Euro/EPS with a more amplified ridge.

Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban This is p funny coming from the dude who has a shit fit on the reg when a 15 day op run doesn't show blue in your yard.

Good plan, but wtf is a self respecting snow starved weenie supposed to do when there's nothing inside 7 days?

Ravens might want to put in a claim. No risk at all, and given the utter mediocrity of their current WR corps, what's there to lose? He knows the system, not that anyone couldn't know Roman's 'system' in about 5 mins.

We just can't know yet. More pattern tracking.

ENSO is forecast to trend neutral mid to late winter, so what we end up with for a longwave pattern is a bit of a wildcard. Certainly not out of the question it could lean more Nino-like. Kind of seeing that already.

Fwiw. Aligns pretty well with the pattern progression on the GEFSX.

Oh was Pann the weenie he went after? lmao if so.

Sounds like he said something that pissed off the edgy NE snow weenies.