CAPE

Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week.

I was kinda leaving out that part.

Love me some high gravity ales!

Not hating it at all given the GFS bias of crushing cold southward. Not likely happening, esp not this winter.

Yup a bit too heavy with the TPV. Nice cold HP positioned well for places south.

Squashed in the wake of the NS vort. Timing and placement is super critical with progressive flow.

Half way through one of these.

Sounds like a reach..

My thinking has been the latter half of Feb into March has potential, but the early Feb window should be good enough for 2-3 chances to legit get on the board(beyond a dusting). Because the pattern is so progressive with so many moving parts, it isn't very likely the same locations will get hit twice with frozen. At least one of the waves will probably dampen to nothing. Just give me one to get on the board properly. The initial wave around Feb 1 probably has the best chance as it looks now.

Agreed the pattern leading up to mid month is looking more favorable on the latest EPS and CMC ens runs, and rolling it forward gives hope for the latter third of the month. That said, I think the first week of Feb still offers a couple chances for a light to moderate event. Not a big storm pattern- never has been imo. I would be thrilled with a modest, well timed wave for 2-4.

Not sure I wanna know what that grayish stuff is.

lol

Not a bad place to be a week out on an op run considering the winter tendencies.

He is mostly right. The depicted look in the LR on the 6z GEFS isn't very good. I suppose in the interest of keeping hopes and dreams alive, positive vibes, etc (theme of the thread) there are other ways to say it. I did it in a post earlier by saying to root for the advertised look on the EPS and GEPS in the LR, rather than saying the GEFS looks like shit lol. That said, Chuck's post doesn't bother me at all.

Already been discussed. Chances for frozen on the means increases Feb 2-3 timeframe.

Root for the EPS and CMC ens in the LR heading towards mid month. Respectable h5 look with ridging along the west coast( neutral/slightly +PNA) and up over AK.

Yeah March of 18 was a nice event here. If you look at the mean (without the anomalies) for the period leading up you can see more clearly there was a bit of a ridge out west though. PNA looks neutral/slightly positive.

The second wave is in alignment with what the ens means have been advertising as the initial chance for something other than rain for days now. This place would be a lot less bipolar if folks paid less attention/didn't react to every model cycle of the operational runs at long leads. eta- the ensembles will have some run-to- run variability, but it won't be the wild swings that we see with the higher res operational models. The basic idea is to use them as a tool to reduce the uncertainty in the long range for a given outcome at a specific time.

We are in the range now where the operational models are beginning to flash the potential for the period beginning early February that has been depicted on the ensembles for several days. Currently the means suggest the chances for frozen increase around Feb 2nd.

6z GFS has more confluence to our north with the timing of the NS shortwave, as a bit of energy ejects eastward out of the southwest. Brings a band of snow across the area.

The propensity for ridging to develop along the east coast even with a -NAO is problematic lately. TNH + Nina + warmer SSTs might be contributing to that recently. I still want to see what happens when we get a moderate Nino with legitimate blocking. In the past a significant number of our big snow events in a Nino have occurred when the PNA was 'unfavorable', but I am pretty sure recently (2009-10 and 2016) all the events had some semblance of a PNA ridge leading in. Ofc there is more of a tendency for a +PNA during a Nino historically. With -PNA seemingly more prevalent now overall, the -NAO/-PNA combo during a CP based Nino needs to be "tested" .

Yes and the GEPS does to a lesser degree too. Pretty nice look here on the EPS for the Feb 2 potential.

Nice signal for a wave moving along the boundary on all 3 global ens means, with cold coming in with/behind the predecessor wave.

But there were 3 waves, and you probably ended up with more snow than any of those areas. In most cases if you post an anomaly map like that for a given MA winter the NW areas will be closer to (or exceed) mean snowfall. More typical. It just didn't work out that way last winter, but many areas still got some snow despite being below average. I doubt that becomes the new bar for what is 'good' lol.

Of the big 3 global ensembles, the EPS overall has had the driest look with the cold in place.