CAPE
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Slightly + temp anomalies over much of Canada is cold enough as we move towards mid Jan. Temps in our region are below avg by the 10th verbatim on that run. Maybe look at the actual temp panels. Looks pretty cold.
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Just hit 32. Still an 'Arctic' airmass feel out there, despite the moderating temps. Plenty of ice on the Choptank River between Greensboro and Denton.
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It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow Bad timing and bad luck. Bad climo. So much to overcome.
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That would be kinda funny if it snowed in January after the extreme December hype December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.
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Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.
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low of 12 here this morning.
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Except for the chance of rain that comes with the warmth.
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Guidance doesn't appear to be 'can kicking' this time. This period is looking better.
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Not verbatim per an op run, but at the beginning stages of a pattern change, yeah this general idea is how it could work.
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The 0z GFS shows how it could work for that period, with a couple storms that track NW, incrementally bringing some colder air southward, followed by a trailing wave that digs further south on the 10th.
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I think Weather Will is 'willing' this one into existence lol. I just pointed out how it could work based on ensemble model depiction of h5 progression. Latest guidance still hinting things could get a little more interesting as early as the 8-10 window. My guess is mid month is probably more realistic, esp for the lowlands.
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Love hiking when the soil is frozen. Having clean shoes are nice, but the feel/sound of walking on it just adds to the whole experience of being out in a crisp, cold airmass that originated way up north.
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lol Just effing with HI-Z a bit. He has a tendency to pop in here and make posts without reading any of the thread convo that came prior. If he had, I bet he would have made a different post- one that adds something to what has already been discussed.
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I see a forecast low of 15 for your area. 13 for here.
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Moderating Arctic Chill. High of 28.
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Thanks! None of us had a clue there could be any potential for this period. It has not been discussed at all here.
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Plus there actually is still a light coating of snow in places. Went to the store yesterday a few miles SW of my yard and by the looks of it, the flizzard there was clearly a little heavier.
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Same here. Quite pretty.
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For the period just beyond the GEFS run. Continuation of the improving pattern depicted on the ens mean. From there it gets better. (see above)
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Latest GEFSX for mid to late Jan. I'll take that pattern for prime cold/snow climo period.
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It only goes out to the 10th lol. And as advertised on the 6z GEFS temps are right about average at that point, with colder air lurking in central Canada. -EPO/WPO and +PNA h5 look.
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Low of 9.
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I guess we should take solace knowing that SNE also got skunked. That really doesn't work for me lol.
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December is now eternally a Fall month here. Sure we get an Arctic blast with a few days of anomalous cold, but it could only happen with mild rain ahead of it, and cold and dry behind. We excel at this.
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14 here coming up on 7pm. Was just outside bringing in more firewood, and it is pretty darn nice now that the wind has died down. I could stand out there and sip on a bourbon. If only there was a few inches of snow otg. Temp would easily drop to zero tonight.
