Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,898

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    One thing of note- the weeklies initialized off the 0z run, which had a more promising look at the end in the HL and hinted at a -NAO developing. The 12z run today took a step back, looking like more of the same rather than some sort of a meaningful pattern change getting underway. Not sure I would put much faith in this edition of the weeklies. Need to see more persistent hints of a favorable shift in the pattern towards the end of the month over the next few ensemble model cycles.
  2. CAPE
    It might have the coldest rain for this one.
  3. CAPE
    There is a pretty strong signal on the ensembles for yet another storm cutting NW for the 16- 17th. Just beyond that there may be the possibility for a wave along the boundary around the 18th or so with colder air in its wake. Something to keep an eye on as we try again lol.
  4. CAPE
    Always fun when randos from other subs pop in here to tell us all how things are.
  5. CAPE
    Deep!
  6. CAPE
    It was 60 today and I didn't hate it at all. Really tired of moderately chilly and dry, followed by mild rain though.
  7. CAPE
    The terms are sometimes used interchangeably, but that doesn't make it technically correct.
  8. CAPE
    They aren't necessarily the same. A cutoff low is completely separated from the general westerly flow. A cutoff will tend to stall/meander around for a period of time in a particular region. This particular situation is not that.
  9. CAPE
    Winter is coming. Delayed but not denied. March is our time.
  10. CAPE
    Quality trolling. Wonder where she gets that from.
  11. CAPE
    Don't blame the creation of this thread for the apparent death of this wretched 'threat'. Was on life support the instant it showed up on guidance.
  12. CAPE
    It's fun to track this because there isn't anything else, but it has always looked like an inland/at elevation deal for snow imo.
  13. CAPE
    0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US.
  14. CAPE
    Probably more likely to shift the other way given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge behind.
  15. CAPE
    Agreed. The depiction of the actual mean I think is probably close to the best outcome in this case. It would get good precip into the favored areas for frozen. The scenarios that keep the better precip more southeastward or have a weaker system overall would likely just produce rain/slop.
  16. CAPE
    The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands.
  17. CAPE
    Nah. Still locked in the perpetual 'we completely suck for snow' portion.
  18. CAPE
    Da mean fwiw
  19. CAPE
    Ends as light rain on WB. TT ptype is awful for a snow weenie lol.
  20. CAPE
    The signal for frozen on the 6z GEFS(east of the mountains) ticked up a bit- 'highest' in VA west and south of DC. There are 7 members that suggest measurable snow in our general region, with differences in the exact placement. Clearly places inland at elevation would be favored in such a marginal setup- if it actually precipitates at a decent rate in those areas.
  21. CAPE
    Polar Vortex destruction!
  22. CAPE
    It's a long shot. You got that part right. Head to the western highlands if you want a legit shot at a white SB Sunday. That has consistently been the signal for this period on the means. Nothing has changed.
  23. CAPE
    Hell of a signal on the GEFS.
  24. CAPE
    A couple photos from Terrapin yesterday. Bit of ice from the brief cold shot. Won't be seeing this again anytime soon as it looks now.
  25. CAPE
    Be sure to check out his latest blog this week to find out!
×
×
  • Create New...