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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    There was a similar post in that thread a few days ago and the RR-signal went out. He rarely misses.
  2. CAPE
    Awesome. I bet you were ready given all the discussion about atmospheric blocking and ENSO on this forum. That pic is a composite from Dec 1 to Feb 15 iirc, during the epic 2009-10 season ofc.
  3. CAPE
    The 0z EPS looks quite active around the 28th too. When I made the original posts early this morning that run had not completed yet.
  4. CAPE
    SPV is forecast to be somewhat perturbed going forward. Can see a nice stretch and on the temp anomaly panel it looks a bit toasty. Forecast strength and position of the SPV at 10 and 50 mb, along with TPV locations at h5-
  5. CAPE
    GEPS has it too- a bit further south.
  6. CAPE
    Nice signal on the 0z GEFS with a discrete shortwave that tracks NE to the MA coast on the 28th.
  7. CAPE
    Don't forget the -h5 height anomalies across the mid south/SE up into the MA. Classic Nino.
  8. CAPE
    A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years.
  9. CAPE
    The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter.
  10. CAPE
    HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow.
  11. CAPE
    A model based on collecting a ton of data from satellites combined with AI/machine learning
  12. CAPE
    Spire lookin good
  13. CAPE
    Faint signal on the GEFS for the 28th. A long way off, but the 26th seems to be the beginning of the window of interest based on current guidance. Much of the heavier precip is along the SE coast and offshore on the mean from the 26th- 29th.
  14. CAPE
    Canadian has the ridge bridge. Impressive -NAO.
  15. CAPE
    That would be a wet Thanksgiving eve.
  16. CAPE
    We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state.
  17. CAPE
    Yeah latest GEFS has it progressing through phase 2 at low amplitude, then into phase 3 but pretty weak. Other guidance has it weaker and then into the COD before progressing into phase 3. We shall see. Probably will have a mild period in December regardless, and the state of the SPV going forward is a wildcard.
  18. CAPE
    The latest extended products depict the continuation of a respectable to favorable longwave pattern into Dec. Both the Euro weeklies and GEFS ext maintain the same general h5 look, with normal to below normal temps for eastern US the entire month verbatim. Certainly no suggestion of a hostile pattern or a 2 week+ torch. Mid to late month actually looks the best on both, a pretty classic Nino look with lower heights across the south/southeast US (fwiw).
  19. CAPE
    Sure does. And the pattern reloading at the end of the run. The SPV becomes quite perturbed on the GFS beginning next week, so this is likely influencing what is being depicted at h5.
  20. CAPE
    That's not some random, poorly timed GL low messing up our mid levels. That is a piece of TPV energy dropping southward as it gets pinched off with the amplifying ridge out west. The pattern is just evolving at this point. That TPV lobe(or multiple pieces) phasing with/deepening the existing trough near the Canadian maritimes is what sets up any potential NA blocking heading into the last week of the month. Imo that period probably offers the better potential for snow chances east of the mountains as the pattern will be more established with a colder air mass more entrenched.
  21. CAPE
    Op run I know but this is only a week or so out. Look at the amplitude of that EPO ridge. All sorts of wave interaction/wave breaking going on. Another TPV vorticity lobe gets pinched off the under the anticyclonic wave break and drops south.
  22. CAPE
    A red pepper bridge with avocado underneath. Looks like a cold Thanksgiving.
  23. CAPE
    Verbatim places NW of the Fall line see a little snow. A coating to as much as 2" in the northern hills of Carroll County.
  24. CAPE
    Winter may be saved!
  25. CAPE
    Mount PSU special on the 18z GFS for next week. A couple inches.
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