CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Winter is better regardless. No bugs. Comfortable temps. Weak sun. Everything brown and inactive. If only it could last for 12 months, even if it never snowed.
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I generally prefer indica, but it sometimes doesn't work quite right for me doing physical activity lol.
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This is as far as you can get from ideal up top on the Atlantic side for MA snow. Completely inverted. I'm off to enjoy some fresh air before it gets dark.
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I am having a beer, then a bit of sativa, then going on a nice hike. Get out and enjoy nature. Beautiful and peaceful, even without snow.
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I am beginning to think a highly amplified but progressive pattern with much of NA devoid of cold is not the best way for us to get snow. More timing and luck than usual required.
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We ready for a reload? I might get loaded.
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Yes clearly the lack of available cold IS the core issue. My post is predicated on that. Sure the High has to move, but the airmass behind it matters. The flow on the backside of the departing High in conjunction the flow around the low matters. Especially when the airmass is barely cold enough to start with. More specifically, the panel where Ji was whining about no CAD didn't make any sense. At that point the low was on top of us. Sometimes you way overthink this stuff lol.
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It's a mean and 7 days out. The general idea and placement of features make this a nice run. Getting enough cold air involved is likely going to be problematic to some degree.
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Baby steps. Still a week out. There was a Euro run or 2 that got some legit cold involved.
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Just ignore the surface temps.
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Not hating this run.
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I guess I was more responding to Ji and Psu than you lol. I was agreeing with you there should be CAD initially.
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And there is CAD at the beginning, although not super strong. I guess I see things differently but with no blocking, a transient 50-50 low hauling ass up into the NA, and a wound up low hugging the coast, not sure how HP is supposed to just sit there.
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Count the lows. thought I was looking at a GEFS member low location panel for a minute.
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Russet fan myself.
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And a wound up coastal hugger.
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That might do the job.
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Yep I posted about this last evening. Aligns with the GEFSX.
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We have had a 'bad' set of runs, which ultimately determines nothing. We also know the current pattern is problematic(lack of cold, progressive flow), so a lot of elements need to fall in place for this to work out. Still a week out so..
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It's actually pretty simple. With the pattern in place, the flow off the Pacific continues to be strong, and is essentially overwhelming other factors. Canada is flooded with relatively mild air. The pattern is a progressive one(no atmospheric blocking in the NA), so the only way to get enough of the already modified cold from up there to down here relies on a well timed, perfectly positioned, but transient NS vortex passing through or near the 50-50 region.
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I guess given the circumstances, and the NFL being unwilling to give up the bye week to replay the game, sure a coin flip will do lol. Not that I think the Ravens have much of a chance to beat the Bengals to even force the issue. https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/coin-flip-home-playoff-game-ravens-bengals
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The AO is negative now, and forecast to trend towards neutral by mid month. That isn't the issue.
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0z EPS- not a bad look beyond mid month, and has our next trackable threat.
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I made a post about this yesterday. The answer is yes there is some hope for that, but it is based on the depicted pattern progression on the latest ensemble runs in the LR plus the extended products, all highly subject to change ofc.
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Oh you mean this isn't good?
