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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Agreed. If the beaches at this latitude are able to get multiple big snows in that stretch, including 2 blizzards, that implies bad luck with wave timing more than anything else. The cold was obviously available.
  2. CAPE
    Most of that action was east of me. I got in on all those events but only the storm in early Jan 22 produced over 8" here. Outside of the 2 clunker winters, it's been quite a run for coastal DE since 2017 relative to avg snowfall there.
  3. CAPE
    It's not about DC. At least 1-2" of slop over the next 10 days at Mt PSU is a must have. Failure could portend a disastrous outcome for actual winter.
  4. CAPE
    That winter featured a Monster GoA low iirc. Our source region was flooded with Pacific air most of the time.
  5. CAPE
    it's been months since we have seen a WPC qpf map like this.
  6. CAPE
    or shit the blinds?
  7. CAPE
    29 here this morning
  8. CAPE
    The longwave pattern on the means continues to look interesting and it's easy to see the potential. It's also a 'busy' one with shortwaves from the NPac riding over the western ridge and dropping southward, combined with spokes of vorticity rotating southward on the west side of the TPV. There is also energy moving eastward in the flow underneath the ridge. This type of (split flow) pattern will feature plenty of wave interactions, and the models will likely struggle more than usual at range. Given enough cold pressing southward, the easy path to victory early in the season would be a healthy shortwave ejecting eastward from the SW and tracking along the thermal boundary. Would need favorable timing/spacing between a southern wave and any NS energy dropping southeastward in the flow between the western ridge and the TPV.
  9. CAPE
    Browns to bring in Flacco for a workout. Good move by them. Perplexing on the surface why the Jets didn't sign him immediately after Rodgers went down, knowing Wilson is a terrible QB, and the Jets have a good running game and great defense. The answer ofc is the shitty GM who drafted Wilson still wants to 'prove' he is a legit starting QB. Browns and Jets fans are so tortured.
  10. CAPE
    Met winter. Each season is 3 months. Logical.
  11. CAPE
    Technically it's 13 days away.
  12. CAPE
    Take it fwiw, but recent runs of the weeklies/extended products continue the same general h5 look well into Dec. Realistically the pattern will be variable with milder spells, but it's nice to see the guidance continue to advertise a favorable pattern overall.
  13. CAPE
    maybe a bit longer
  14. CAPE
    Nice s****l for a D10 mean.
  15. CAPE
    I looked at the EPS members this morning and there were a few that had the GFS idea of developing another low. Something to keep any eye on over the next couple model cycles.
  16. CAPE
    Front moving through now. Wind has kicked up with an increase in clouds. No rain ofc, but it sounds like it with all the leaves plopping on the roof.
  17. CAPE
    Snippet from Mount Holly AFD wrt Thanksgiving day- However, some models/ensemble members, most notably the 00Z GFS, depict another closed mid level low developing, resulting in surface cyclogenesis, with another round of precipitation possible on Thursday as the low slides off shore over Delmarva. For now, I`ve stayed close to a consensus blend that doesn`t include the GFS as I can`t recall another event with an evolution like this, and so far this seems to be an outlier solution. Therefore, the forecast keeps Thanksgiving dry with temperatures slightly below normal.
  18. CAPE
    There is a fairly persistent indication(I won't say signal) on the ensembles in the LR for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. This varies from run to run ofc. The 27th -30th seems to be the window. Verbatim on the 0z EPS this would be a light snow, mostly falling to our south over S VA/NC.
  19. CAPE
    Remains to be seen if anything materializes during this period, but the advertised h5 look is pretty damn nice. Rather see it a month later though.
  20. CAPE
    Da hell is going in in here? Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas.
  21. CAPE
    A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe.
  22. CAPE
    KC was a winner last night. With Bengals falling to 5-5, losing Burrow for at least a couple games, and the Andrews injury, they are (once again) clearly in the driver's seat.
  23. CAPE
    Losing Andrews is a big blow to any SB aspirations imo. He is that valuable. Always money, and Lamar's security blanket. Is what it is though. That style of tackling needs to be looked at, but in today's NFL it's already hard enough for defenders to make 'clean' hits and tackles.
  24. CAPE
    Some cold Nov rain would make me happy. Dust bowl out there.
  25. CAPE
    Looks like it will be chilly for a spell. The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see. Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.
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