Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    33,899

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Alright.
  2. CAPE
    I really would like to complete this sale, and I can clearly see that you want to buy the product. Tell me how we can get this deal done today!
  3. CAPE
    GEFS + GEPS > EPS
  4. CAPE
    There are always legit concerns of one sort or another when it comes to getting snow in these parts, regardless of ENSO state.
  5. CAPE
    12z EPS keeps the vortex around Siberia stronger/more consolidated, so not quite as cold a look. Not earth shattering but something to keep an eye on.
  6. CAPE
    Third run in a row hinting, but this is a bit more robust. We track until it morphs lol.
  7. CAPE
    Just for the hell of it- since everyone is in a cheery mood on Turkey-day eve, not working/ at work pretending to work.
  8. CAPE
    Too much of a good thing. Ridge bridge with TPV lobes shedding off underneath and dropping south can act like a wrecking ball, crushing eastbound shortwaves taking the southern route. If this pattern is legit, we are going to see all sorts of wild outcomes on the op runs over the next week.
  9. CAPE
    GEFSx looks solid right through Xmas. I would expect the next run to look even better given the last few runs of the GEFS.
  10. CAPE
    Yep an uncomplicated path for a frozen event, possibly for much of the region. Given the looks, southern VA into NC might be in the game. We may be seeing some fringed posts lol.
  11. CAPE
    A long way off and we know the op runs are not very useful for any sort of detail, but ya gotta like the h5 looks we are seeing on the means the last several runs. if it ends up being close to real, some early Dec frozen is on the table. Just not on the 10th ofc.
  12. CAPE
    It was another perfect radiational cooling set up, but might have been a bit more mixing of the air towards sunrise esp in the higher spots. I bet the lower areas near you were colder.
  13. CAPE
    Down to 27 at 6am
  14. CAPE
    28 here this morning
  15. CAPE
    The 0z GFS snows on us on the 7th with a wave tracking to our south and cold air pressing. Not out of the question given the advertised h5 look on the ens mean.
  16. CAPE
    Yeah, but that's a year away.
  17. CAPE
    We are due for a persistently blocky winter. Why not in a Nina to boot? Eff the QBO and Strat water vapor BS lol. Nebulous shit.
  18. CAPE
    Guidance has been waffling a bit from run to run, but seems to be moving towards a pretty favorable look. Pac jet configuration and MJO progression are no doubt big factors, along with default Nina tendencies.
  19. CAPE
    Ofc we have. And we know it is highly unlikely we see anything close to the 'ideal pattern' in a Nina. But we can dream. And the guidance teasing us with this is kinda fun as we head into Met winter. Luckily we can score in a flawed set up.
  20. CAPE
    Well maybe 2 then.
  21. CAPE
    This is pretty hot.
  22. CAPE
    I know of one who won't be interjecting.
  23. CAPE
    So much optimism about the pattern progression. Where are the debs speculating about what could go wrong?
  24. CAPE
    That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave.
  25. CAPE
    I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look.
×
×
  • Create New...