CAPE

34 here now and still overcast. Was looking forward to the forecast of partly sunny and near 40.

There's your front end thump for the northwest crew.

It was interesting/eye opening, but in the here and now, we have to deal with the reality of similar h5 patterns producing somewhat different(less desirable) results.

I was looking at h5 composites for the winters of the 1960s this morning, which were mostly -NAO, and a mixture of neutral/Nina/Nino. Holy crap the negative anomalies into the mid latitudes many of those years were nuts. Hard to imagine seeing something like that today.

The chances for frozen will likely come when a more amplified low (or 2) track up towards the GLs and drag the thermal boundary southeastward behind, and we get a well timed wave- like you showed earlier on the 6z GFS. It tried to do the same thing for the 23rd but the trailing wave damped as the spacing was a bit too tight.

Low solar activity and a lot of -NAO years.

It just can't know yet.

Triggered by Tony Pann lol.

Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies?

Big -EPO with cross polar flow in a progressive regime. Legit cold air with baroclinic boundary just offshore. When that doesn't happen for several years the immediate coast won't see snow.

We did pretty good with a storm in March of 18, and I believe that was also a Nina transitioning neutral.

I still think the 22nd presents a chance. GEFS is a tad warm but has had a strong signal. Both the EPS and CMC ens are colder and suggest a suppressed wave.

lol you would think. Waves running the boundary with cold pressing seems to be the simplest way given the pattern progression as depicted. Pretty persistent hints of that on the means beyond the 20th. Eff anything complicated or amped.

Agreed. Wrt the SER and WAR 'concern' posts, there is going to be some degree of that without a doubt. Some -NAO action will help counter it.

I am sure the gloom and doom meter will be higher once folks see the latest ens means in the LR lol. It's way out there, but probably the most likely progression, and the extended products have been depicting it. Not an awful look(typical Nina), and it is just a smoothed mean- the actual longwave pattern will vary. We aren't likely going to see some classically favorable h5 pattern lock in at this juncture. Chances will come in the usual ways- well timed wave on the the backside of a bigger storm with the boundary pulled south, front end snow to mix etc.

Typical Nina. Take a look at the current SST anomalies. Favors convection closer to the MC.

The period around the 22nd is still worth keeping an eye on for first a chance at something. CMC ens has low pressure off the coast and is colder.

Yep they all look reasonably favorable going forward, and we are getting into prime snow climo. There should be chances if something close to those h5 looks verify. Beyond that, we just can't know.

The chances have looked slim at best based on the reports. Huntley didn't throw today, but was at practice. He has shoulder tendonitis, and should be able to play with that. I think they are just getting him as much rest as possible, but he probably needs to be more involved tomorrow if he is is going to start. The only chance the Ravens have is for the D to be dominant, the run game to be dominant and eat clock, while scoring 20, don't turn it over, and get a takeaway or 2. Tall order.

It was started specifically because the other one was a disaster. Oh shit!

Low of 25 and very frosty.

Agree, but it looks better than previous runs because it has the TPV in that location and oriented that way. Would expect it to be colder at the surface given that look, so that part 'worries' me. Marginal cold has not worked for the coastal plain nearly as well in recent winters.

As discussed yesterday, the EPS is somewhat less robust with the -EPO, and doesn't get as much cold into our nearby source region, but still has a very favorable look in the LR. The TPV over N Canada is stretched southeastward with time. It will be interesting to watch the trends wrt the specifics of the pattern evolution over the next several model cycles.

Active look on the GEFS beyond the 20th. Remains to be seen how quickly colder air would bleed east and exactly where the thermal boundary will be. Signal for the 22nd is pretty strong but might be a little too soon to get a favorable track. Beyond that, there should be chances with colder air pressing.

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar.