CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm.
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Could this be the first 'period of interest' for something wintry? Climo is hostile so a longshot for the lowlands, but a pretty interesting look as advertised. Amplified longwave pattern, anomalous cold already in place for much of the US, with more NS energy dropping in and an eastbound southern disturbance in the central US. GFS op has been giving some digital snow around the 18th in recent runs. Something to keep an eye on mostly for the western highlands.
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Seeing enough on the extended guidance over the past week or so that this sort of progression would seem plausible. If these tools have any skill at all, they should be able to sniff out the general h5 look 3-4 weeks out.
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Latest GEFS Extended for the first week in December. Inside of a month now.
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Good point. So far he has really only been active in this thread, which will quickly die as we get into actual winter(soon). If he starts crapping up the more pertinent discussion/storm threads with his shtick, well..
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I gave in and turned the AC on last evening when it was still 68 at 8pm. Low of 64.
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Models are in fairly good agreement that the trough interacts with that low moving westward towards Florida. CMC turns it NE quicker and keeps most of the action off the coast. Someone should bump the tropical thread.
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Remember last December? The 'shades down' pattern? No way out! Except 2 weeks later..
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Can we at least keep this dude in his own sub? He contributes nothing substantive, so no reason for him to come here and constantly shit up the place.
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This is why you are post limited. It's a seasonal mean ffs. Just stop.
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End of the 12z EPS run has the beginnings of the pattern being advertised on the much of the extended guidance heading into Dec. Building heights into Greenland, lower heights (TPV lobes) underneath, -EPO/neutral PNA.
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77 here now. Only tolerable because of the breeze, but if you are in direct sun actually doing something.. btw you can say fuck.
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He doesn't do analysis. He perpetually parrots Twitter randos who post stuff that aligns with his narrative.
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Yeah looks like I kinda wasted my time this morning lol. Getting breezy out there now and they are dumping. I have to do it in stages here or they pile up to the point I have to use the rake more than the blower.
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Perpetual leaf fall has commenced over the last few days, unaided by wind. Definitely earlier than usual. Typically right about peak now and the leaf dump is more towards mid November.
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Not snow, but puking leaves here now. Accumulating rapidly, despite my removal efforts.
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Nina
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It's trying to involve a tropical wave (which it moves into the Gulf) with the front, way later than the other models. Verbatim it's a miss here and snow for the coast of NE lol.
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Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays.
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Refreshing early June morning. 58.
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GFS op doing its thing in the LR.
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Next weekend looks decidedly more chilly than this one behind the late week frontal passage. Instead of approaching 80, it appears temps will struggle to hit 50. Upper 20s/30s for lows Sunday night.
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Temp anomaly is around -3F at the surface for that period verbatim. Take it fwiw, and best to glean only the very general idea with these overly smoothed super LR tools. Ofc the actual h5 pattern for that timeframe could always end up the antithesis of what is currently being advertised.
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Latest LR/extended guidance suggests a brief period of +PNA, but then it trends back neutral/negative. Generally seasonable temps for mid to late month looks like a good bet right now. Remains to be seen if we get some NAO help by the end of the month. Euro weeklies still suggestive of higher heights building over Greenland for early December.
