CAPE

Much of the extended guidance is suggesting a developing -NAO towards the end of November. Fwiw ofc. Would also need some changes in the EPAC wrt the Nina dominant ridge strength/position to get us to a more favorable pattern. Extended GEFS for shits and giggles..

Yeah I am not really expecting it either. I guess maybe we will see what Jackson has left in 9 days. They believe in using multiple TEs as receivers, and they have plenty lol. Kolar might be close to coming back, so add another.

No. Mosquitoes aren't active when temps are below about 50, but many species survive winter by hibernating. The females lay eggs when it warms in the Spring.

This run was vintage Lamar. Great call by Al Michaels. Maybe lay off the Xanax.

The Ravens OL is getting it together. Linderbaum was dominant. Lets hope Gus just has a hamstring tweak. He is the perfect type of back for this offense. Just gets yards and almost never tackled for a loss. They have plenty of down time the next few weeks with the bye coming up. They need a more formidable passing game, and imo that means making a move. Hell of a second half though with both Bateman and Andrews out. Lamar was very efficient.

No Andrews or Bateman in second half, Lamar goes 8 for 8. They ran the ball down the Buc's throats, and the D stuffed their run game. Usually a winning formula for the Ravens. Now DeCosta needs to do his job and make a deadline deal. They need another receiver. Bateman has shown us he can't stay healthy. Ravens have a long week off, one game, then a bye. Good time to get healthy, and should have some reinforcements back on the defense in the coming weeks.

I watch the MJO, ONI, etc, and follow the LR ensembles to see how the longwave pattern may progress. Speculating on what h5 will look like 8 weeks down the road is out of my lane, and is pretty much a crapshoot for those who consider themselves more skilled. I enjoy the weather we get in Fall/early winter regardless, outside of these stagnant damp/dreary periods. Love being outside with no bugs and chilly temps.

That didn't last long.

Whoa a bit of sun peaking through the murk.

Sure that is a tasty look, but probably pretty unlikely given where we are currently with the key indices. Just a little more work here and a bit more there and then if this happens.. I find the twitter dweeb speculative posts about 'possible' winter outcomes completely boring anymore.

Might be a bit of clearing ahead of the trough lifting NE this afternoon, but probably still mostly cloudy, especially for eastern areas. Finally we get some nice Fall weather back tomorrow and through most of the weekend courtesy of High pressure building over eastern Canada behind the front. Low 60s for highs/40s for lows and plenty of sun. Yes, bring that.

More work needed.. just a little work, and with some luck, Dec might resemble that silly analog composite posted right there.

The means don't have the tendency to do a 'complete flip' like the higher res op runs can within a couple runs. Relying on the lower resolution ensembles at range over a series of cycles reduces uncertainty about the general outcome for a given future window, and that's basically the point.

Not sure why anyone pays any attention to any op run 10 days out. By nature they are prone to completely different outcomes from run to run. I rarely if ever give consideration to a LR op run, or use them in a post, unless its in context to the ensemble solutions.

Models all struggled with this one. The NAMs juiced up at 12z yesterday. More recent runs of the Euro had decent rain over this way, as did the CMC but it also extended it up towards your area. It appears to have done the best among the globals. Ended up with 0.68" here. Forecast was a tenth or less Sunday and ditto Sunday night. Mount Holly's thinking early yesterday based on guidance was the half inch+ amounts would be confined to the immediate coast. Give me a similar 'surprise' outcome with cold in place and a low tracking north off the coast in January.

Agree. Coached up but the way they have been winning suggests there is probably a 3 game losing streak in their near future.

Some decent showers here. 0.21".

LOL GB. Heinicke!

Ravens sure still need work. Offense and Defense are perfectly synchronous in the second half with a lead lol. Got a little lucky today, or the outcome may have been familiar.

Don't let Caldwell leave town after the 2012 SB anniversary pregame celebration.

Great to see Gus back and running well. Good timing with Dobbins not quite right and back out for 4weeks+ with more surgery to remove scar tissue.

Cloudy and mild with flow coming off the Ocean. Temp up to 52. Probably just a cloudy day but mostly dry. Remains to be seen if any legit showers make it here later. Models still don't agree, and the setup is not conducive to significant rain outside of areas right near the coast.

Well you know he wants it to, but his 'opinions' will depend on what the hand picked twitter dweebs are saying at that point.

36 this morning. Cooler than forecast. Should be a 30 degree rise in temperature, and another gorgeous day. With a shift in the pattern, won't be seeing 30s and frost for awhile.