CAPE

Latest GEFSX and Euro weeklies have a similar pattern progression beyond mid month, with the deep trough along the west coast splitting off from the negative anomalies over AK as a ridge develops. This causes the trough to progress eastward into the western/central US as the lower heights near AK retrograde into a more favorable position near the Aleutians. Pretty good agreement and a decent h5 look for the east coast.

We know where Bob Chill will be if this is close to reality.

1-2 ft for central NC to Central VA lol.

The 4 day is almost identical east of the highlands.

I just went back and looked at previous runs and it never looked even close to this.

Also potential huge impacts on the Bills-Chiefs seeding. Bills beat the Chiefs head to head, but by playing one less game(if they both win their final game), Chiefs have the better win % and Bills would have to travel to KC for a playoff game. That just isn't right.

Better surface depiction than the last several runs.

It didn't cut though. It wobbled around like a drunken sailor and ended up off the SE coast. You are partly correct- we need to have a mechanism for confluence to our north or HP is going to exit stage right. The big picture issues are the progressive flow regime and lack of true cold air.

I am more of a glass half full guy as I get older. I enjoy tracking interesting weather, and I find the physics to be very cool, but it's just not a game changer for me if I don't get snow. It is not some life changing deal lol. Weather does what it does. If I really need a fix, I have been known to chase.

MC forcing is pretty much the norm for a Nina. Not sure it is that much of a game changer if we have other indices in our favor. Latest ens guidance indicates the AO and NAO will be neutral/trending slightly negative beyond mid month. Imo it's up in the air what transpires on the Pac side going forward. Yeah we will warm again for a time after whatever happens mid month, but the GEFS in the LR significantly weakens the trough along the west coast and is suggesting a ridge may develop.

At least Ji is getting his digital blue fix.

You forgot the ugly.

The early January snowstorm. I know it didn't work out for everyone in the subforum, but I first saw the potential when we were in the so called "blinds closed" Dec torch pattern, and even though it waxed and waned over about a 10 day period, the general idea remained on guidance. The "Cape storm" actually did produce in my yard (9.5"), so that was satisfying. It melted some but then we had another event a few days later- snow on snow. January as a whole was memorable and eastern areas had one more major event at the end of the month. The beaches really cleaned up on that one with a foot+ blizzard, and I ended up with 6+ inches here.

That sounds reasonable. This is the one that always had some sneaky potential imo. What mostly makes it work is that NS shortwave digs a bit more it moves across Hudson Bay. I mentioned yesterday it was a little too flat and north, but if it tracked a bit further south we might get a little colder and a better track.

And exactly what one takes comfort in is location dependent ofc.

Time to start a thread.

6z GFS brought back the minor snow deal for Sunday night. 6z Euro has it too at the end of the run. With marginal cold, should it occur the overnight timing might allow for a little stickage.

We are still at the 'general idea' stage. Low pressure developing off the SE coast, with marginally cold air available. Going forward as the models figure out the subtle interactions between the key features, we will get a better idea of exactly where low pressure will form/whether there will there be multiple lows involved/will there be enough cold air available for the lowlands etc.

0z EPS. Pretty steady compared to the last couple GFS/GEFS runs.

This is a pretty cool interactive resource. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/mjoanalogs.html

this is pretty decent. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Trust me, no shell here. And I am a teacher.

18z GEFS a bit further south, offshore, slightly weaker signal than 12z. Noise. On to the next cycle.

Ok sorry if I misinterpreted, but calling a deterministic model atrocious and asking about validation scores based on one op run 10 days out makes it sound like you are worried, despite explicitly saying you aren't immediately after.