CAPE

There are always a range of possible outcomes for every pattern- some will be "good" even in those patterns that are less than ideal. This was the h5 pattern leading up to the big snowstorm for the lowlands of the MA early Jan last winter. Typical Nina Aleutian ridge, but displaced somewhat poleward, not the greatest trough position, with some SE ridge, and a transient/bootleg -NAO.

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

Are we still closing the blinds?

Love me some avocado. On/with anything, anytime.

Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown.

Might not drop a lot of snow, but this would be fun AF.

That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS.

Ji bought it.

If one particular poster didn't post, that other poster would not have had the chance to reply. Doesn't take much to get an avalanche started.

Hi!

The strongest indication for an event across guidance within our upcoming 'favorable window' is currently late next week into the weekend. As @Cobaltmentioned in his post, there is a pretty nice signal on the EPS. CMC ens holds the main trough and core of the cold back a bit, with some ridging out in front, and indicates a more messy looking scenario with initial low tracking NW. The timing is somewhat different. Weaker signal on the GEFS, but it is there, and it looks more like the EPS with a broader trough and initial colder air mass in place.

Having a -NAO does not always equal a block. A true sustained block in the atmosphere at h5 features a persistent dipole(upper low and high, ideally cutoff from the main flow). My more practical gauge is to see how lows(upper level vortices) behave as they progress eastward into the 50-50 region. If they essentially zoom through there and up into the NA, that's not a block imo. Not to say that situation isn't useful, but it is more indicative of a progressive flow and timing is critical.

The first chance of something trackable is early/mid next week as the trough digs underneath the sprawling Upper ridging across Canada. A wave off the Pacific takes the southern route underneath the PNA ridge. A lot of ways this could play out depending on the timing/location of the main features, but there is a path for a modest event. Here is the wave on the GEFS- The location/timing/orientation of the trough allows the wave to stay more intact on the GEFS depiction with a chance it can gain some latitude as the trough initially digs a bit more westward. Euro/EPS shears it out under the NS vortex. Beyond that it still looks something more significant may transpire around Christmas.

I was referring to ''stealing your thunder' lol. These snow maps are pretty useless at this range imo, thus the eye roll for ME posting it. That said, I like seeing the moisture focused more along the coast plus the advertised negative temp anomalies. It gives confidence that this will indeed be a colder period with the baroclinic boundary predominately to our SE, and waves taking a more favorable track. This idea has been pretty consistent on the ens means over recent runs.

^Snow mean for the period sort of matches. Like seeing more to the SE at this juncture. Yeah I know. Sorry WW!

Certainly doesn't give the indication of cutters during this period. Maybe not a big storm but it looks cold and there is some moisture.

Latest edition of the Euro Weeklies for the first week of Jan. Very similar to the GEFSX for the same period.

He is pretty steady with posting the snow maps, so probably not needed lol.

I actually predicted that this is what you would post right before you posted the snow probs and total snow map lol.

Some of that for the NW areas is for the late week deal, which we know is going to be slop.

Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th.

Fwiw the GEFS extended keeps the same general longwave pattern in place with below average temps through the end of the run- mid Jan.

Outside of possible freezing/frozen at onset for NW areas, this looks like a potentially heavy rain event with 1-2", and the wind- especially for eastern areas- could gust to 40 mph.

After the late week event this looks like the most active period leading up to Christmas on the latest GEFS. Given the cold look, decent chance this would be frozen.

He admitted he was terrible today. Peters hasn't been good lately either. Need those two to tighten things up.