CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go.
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Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day.
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We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore.
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There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig.
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Soaker
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33 and rain!
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A little offshore but nice to see a signal at this range for a coastal with plenty of cold in place.
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There we go.
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I'm thinking maybe that wave drops SE and becomes the trigger for the following coastal storm around the 27th.
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Kind of an ideal look leading up to an east coast snowstorm, other than a chunk of the PV is coming with it lol.
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Shit at least give me some rain followed by a flash freeze or something.
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Many more iterations to come. It can only get better from cold and dry.
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Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.
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The Mean looks almost exactly like the GEFS at 6z. 12z not so much.
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Who said we can't?
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36/21 Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.
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The 23rd should be interesting, even if it doesn't produce much snow. Not sure we won't see some significant changes from what's currently being depicted. Kinda hoping to see something a bit unusual, with at least a little shot of snow.
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I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.
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As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.
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Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.
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Looking beyond next week there would appear to be another storm chance around the 27th on the GEFS. The cold should be entrenched at this point with increased chances for a more favorable track. Might be a bit too offshore if anything. Pretty nice h5 look.
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Even if the EPS is more correct we can still get a good outcome. Would be a more convoluted setup, but the cold coming in looks legit. Worst case is we ridge and warm some out in front, get an inland track with rain, then cold and dry behind. That is always a default fail mode for us lol.
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5 day mean ending on the 27th. Pretty decent given we have something trackable in that window.
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The way things look we may get a good test next winter with a possible moderate CP based Nino, which typically has a favorable HL pattern and storm track with active STJ, but not very cold. Historically our bread and butter for above avg snow.
