CAPE

The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!

He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions.

Chuck is pretty smart tbh. He doesn't troll on purpose.

Probably a snowman19 sock.

Ravens cut Mike Davis, activate JK Dobbins. Will we finally have Gus and JK in the backfield at the same time, with Ronnie Stanley at LT? Bring that shiz.

Still hints of low pressure developing near the gulf for this period. This sort of look could produce a low tracking up along but somewhat off the coast, potentially better for the lowlands.

lol I am no expert, but I guess I have learned enough over the years to identify the important features and their interactions in a given setup. Large scale fluid mechanics. Cool stuff and complex. I actually enjoy it.

Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do.

Pretty much the same. No one here cares about rain this time of year though.

A shame we cant get someone to post a few 12z Euro maps in the LR thread.

An op run snow map at this range is clown either way dude.

The mean is not bad. Temps super marginal verbatim, but it implies colder air coming in as precip is still going(that always works!) It would probably be good enough to get the NW crew on the board for sure.

That's the big difference. The ejecting low has more separation from the trough digging along the west coast and thus is stronger over the central US. Primary holds on too long.

You're doing ok. At this range with a discrete threat on guidance, the maps on the means become more useful.

There will be more and different iterations to come. The 6z GFS was quite different from previous runs, with the initial weaker attempt at coastal redevelopment, then dropping that vort in behind with another attempt over the weekend.

I suppose it's debatable how much value they have at range, but the context of my post in response to WxUSAF's post was more about expectations.

Nice overview of the late week system/potential from Mount Holly in their morning AFD. I now have the generic rain/snow in my forecast Wed night into Friday. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.. Looking at the larger scale big picture, the main story for the long range will be a continuing blocking pattern remaining in place over the north Atlantic. This will help keep surface high pressure dominant over eastern Canada which will also have a tendency to force more of a southern storm track as (as opposed to storms riding up to our north and west). In terms of the forecast details, Tuesday through Wednesday look to remain dry and on the cool side with a continuing northerly flow due to the high to our north. Looking towards late next week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast especially with regards to a potential storm system. The deterministic GFS really downplays the storm potential as it shears out approaching shortwave energy approaching from the west. Meanwhile the GEM Global, ECMWF, and some of the GFS ensemble perturbations depict a large lumbering upper level trough approaching from the central CONUS with an associated surface low over the Great Lakes giving way to secondary low development off the coast. If this were to verify, it could mean a fairly significant coastal storm affecting the region by next Thursday into Friday. But even then, there are still questions regarding precip types (rain vs. snow) as temperatures will be marginal. The bottom line, late week storm threat still in play but a lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast. We continued to stay close to the NBM with this forecast update and carry likely POPs for Thursday into Thursday night.

Looks cold for Christmas behind our coastal storm.

It's a potential MILLER A!!

Agreed, and posting those ridiculous clown snow maps wont help lol.

I am mostly looking ahead(for my yard). The late week deal might work out for some, most likely inland and north I think ultimately.

It doesn't quite come together in time at the surface for our region but there is more space/less squash, so more coastal development.

On the 6z GFS, the vort that was previously coming in behind the ocean low(50-50) and helping to squash the main wave, now misses and slides SW under the Canadian ridge and comes in behind our wave of interest.

Thanks! Yeah I'm with ya. Although I have become slightly intrigued with the late next week event, I know the setup, the date, and my climo lol. One or more will be the likely cause of failure. With the advertised pattern progression, just beyond that threat- around the 20th and beyond- looks like the best window for much of this region to possibly get on the board. Could be fun in mid/late December for a change.