CAPE

Need a little phase shift.

A couple downpours today added up to 0.35" Up to 3.1" since last evening.

A shot I took about a half mile from my house driving home from Centreville. Ended up with a quarter inch from this pulser that mostly missed to my SW.

Lost an oak tree last night. Snapped off a couple feet from the ground. The wind was probably 40 mph at most, so it had some issue. I already have 2 stacks of wood that are seasoned and need to be split. Plenty of firewood for the next couple years.

Had another round behind the main event. Total of 2.76". After getting next to nothing over a 2+ week span with multiple high probability chances for significant rain, this happens on a day where the forecast called for a 30% chance of a tenth or less lol.

Its been nice not having any skeeters. The late summer variety can be nasty and stick around through our second summer well into October. Delicate balance here.

2.35" Tomorrow is supposed have the much higher chance for heavy rain here. Might have to root for failure now.

1.85" and still going. Might be time to start the annual grass reseeding project this weekend.

Super impressive lightning with this. Maybe the best of the summer here. Pouring too. A bit of a surprise. Models weren't all that impressed this morning. Seemed it would be more isolated and pulsy.

Getting noisy out there. A deluge would be nice. Been pretty boring lately.

Had a random, sudden downpour around 2am. Lasted maybe 5 mins, resulting in 0.15".

0.11" we drought.

Second summer begins in one month.

My teaching load is variable, but this summer and early Fall it is higher than its been since COVID started. Plus I am developing a new course. Looking forward to November and December more than usual.

I'm about to go out and water all the plants. Maybe that will make it rain.

Mount Holly dropped the D word. A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region.

Yeah, like you, the Euro has given me multiple inches of rain over several events that in reality added up to a tenth or so.

12z suite shows rain shield remaining activated for my area for the fourth consecutive event.

The location of the upper ridge on the 12z Euro, and the surface high off the Atlantic coast, produces mid and lower level wind trajectory that is ideal for downslope /compressional heating for eastern/southern NE. At least that's the way it looks to me.

Our next opportunity for failure begins tomorrow night. Also, not good for the folks in parts of Kentucky. Disco from WPC excessive rainfall discussion for day 2- Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic... There is a growing signal for repeating storms to develop along a stalled frontal boundary that could potentially yield several inches of rain across middle Tennessee, far southern Kentucky and areas back towards the Missouri Bootheel. During this period much of the southern tier of the country will have pooled Gulf moisture with PWs upwards of 2 inches (+1- +2 sigma) along with nearly parallel low level flow (20-25 kts) to the W-E orientated frontal boundary. This is a favorable setup for very efficient rainfall. Even with another set of model guidance...the exact location of the frontal boundary along with when it starts to lift northward dampens confidence as to whether or not a Moderate Risk will need to be introduced over areas soaked by recent excessive rainfall events. Much like yesterday...opted to use a broader brush for the Slight Risk area than usual for what may well be modest rainfall amounts across the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians. There is still some possibility that some heavy rain could develop along east of the Appalachians later Sunday night into early Monday as a shortwave induces low pressure to form along a front that extends from Virginia out over the Atlantic. The model agreement is not unanimous but the NCEP guidance has started to reflect the idea began by the UKMET 24 hours ago. Made only minor adjustments to the on-going outlook there.

Less than a tenth since the middle of last week. I think it was that Tuesday I had a miracle cell pop on my doorstep and dump an inch plus. No hint that ever occurred now. Like a desert. I can start reseeding in another week.

Lets hope not. I got lucky a week ago Tuesday I think, when something popped up on the doorstep just as it looked like another miss north. Since then, stuck in-between in the zone of nothing, despite a forecast of a half inch+ 3 times.

Just made a post in the other thread. Uncanny how the last 2-3 including today have evolved the same way.

The current radar looks familiar. So does the 3k NAM simulation. Might make it 0 for the last 3 'high probability' precip events. If the HRRR is correct, might see some drizzle.

You focus too much on Nina as the root cause of your lack of snow. Last winter areas south and east did well in Jan, and places further west of you did pretty good later in winter. You were unlucky. In general, Ninas are not big snow winters for the MA, but neither are most Ninos. Outside of the inland areas at elevation, this is a terrible place to live if significant annual snowfall is high on your list of priorities.