CAPE

Still going. 1.27". All the rain here has come from this localized band.

That east to west training band has been persistent here. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Looks like it is starting to shift south.

Da bomb cyclone! That was a great storm but unfortunately it shut everything down by the next morning in Rehoboth. The 2017 storm didn't have as much wind and plenty of the good places were open for foodies and drinks. More enjoyable overall for me.

0.75" here so far. Just over 3" for the month. Goldilocks.

Recent Ninas have been good to the MA coast. 2 blizzards and a big snow storm (that was a bit short on wind) since Jan of 17.

winter is coming.

Getting some moderate to heavy rain here now. Interesting to see the general westerly flow on radar but the storms build westward/backbuild. Convergence along the front with some vorticity moving through aloft.

Next to nothing over here. Looks like that enhanced area of lift with the heavy rain will gradually weaken/ shift southward with the front today.

Been missing the bonus rains that have fallen along/adjacent to the bay the last 2 weeks, but still done ok here. Over 3". Nice to not have to water plants but no amount of rain keeps the grass from doing the usual transformation to thatch this time of year. I will start reseeding in early August.

Most of the overnight stuff missed here. Getting a downpour now. Another day of soup.

1.07" here today, almost all of it falling in the last hour or so.

Absolutely pouring here. No thunder. No wind.

Nice AFD from Mount Holly- We continue to monitor the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening. As is usually the case in northwest flow patterns, the severe weather potential today is highly uncertain. Most pressingly, it`s not clear what the forcing mechanism for convection would be. While the MCS to our west this morning probably won`t impact us with severe weather, it`s possible new cells could develop on its outflow. We will also have a cold front approaching by late today or tonight. This could also lead to convective development, but it`s not a very strong front and the column aloft also starts to become drier with time this evening. PoPs for the next 24 hours were derived from a broad-based blend of global and CAM guidance. They generally maximize at chance to likely values, and are highest from late afternoon through mid to late evening. In a probabilistic sense, the most likely scenario appears to be that we get little if any in the way of severe weather today. It doesn`t seem likely that our moisture levels will recover in time to generate significant surface based instability, not to mention the cloud cover potentially keeping temperatures down. Lack of instability will be a big inhibitor considering the nebulous forcing. Most guidance does indicate a ribbon of some instability developing by late today over portions of Delmarva and east-central Pennsylvania, in the neighborhood of 500 to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. But with poor mid-level lapse rates and drier air advecting in aloft, it will be difficult to sustain robust updrafts in that sort of environment. The shear profiles are certainly interesting though, between the rather backed surface winds and strong mid-level flow. Should any sustained deep convective cells develop, which would be more likely if instability ends up greater than forecast, then there would be a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado considering impressive SRH values by later today. Will definitely be a day where monitoring real time observations as well as trends in the CAMs is important.

Latest from Mount Holly- Attention in the near term remains on the potential for severe thunderstorms in the area during the day on Tuesday. There remains a good bit of uncertainty on the timing and progression of the aforementioned remnant convection from upstream across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. The timing and track of these remnants will determine if we get any new convection developing and moving into our area, and if so, the degree of the intensity and coverage of the storms. The latest suite of CAM guidance suggests a consensus favoring severe convection developing in the early afternoon to our west across the Pennsylvania Capital Region and southwest into central Maryland and northern Virgina then moving east and impacting the southern half of the forecast area. This consensus will almost certainly change in future runs though depending on the progression of the upstream convection once any complexes begin to mature. In any case, if storms do develop and move through our area during a favorable time in the afternoon to evening, severe thunderstorms would be probable given the environment in place. Deep layer effective shear around 40 kts, MLCAPE in the 1,000-2,000 J/kg range, and effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 will be in play if we have enough time to destabilize. If an initial round moves through the area early enough in the day, a second round could be possible later in the afternoon or evening as well.

Chuck?

And it continues. After a couple days of warm and muggy this week, heat gets knocked back as another trough digs in over eastern Canada, with an upper ridge building well to our west. Looks a bit unsettled Friday with a potential disturbance moving along the front, possibly lingering into Saturday. Potentially a really nice weekend with temps in the low 80s.

Looks like a really nice fourth with temps well into the 80s and dewpoints in the low 50s.

Probably not much that can be done about it other than place it where the wind is blocked. I am in the woods so I have tree branches that hang over the gauge no matter where I put it. Tends to catch lower than actual, but not by much. I use this link to compare. https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours You can zoom right in over your yard and click to get the rainfall. It tends to be a bit higher than my gauge especially when trees are leafed out, which makes sense. Always pretty close though- usually within 0.15".

There was some decent T&L with the storms that moved through last evening, but the line was weakening as it approached. On and off showers overnight into this morning bumped the rain total up to 0.68".

from CPC/NCEP- In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance.. Most likely we are looking at a weak Nina for Fall/early Winter, trending neutral towards early 2023.

It's a bit early for this lol. Chill.

I wonder how much it costs the Canadians to run the CanSIPS? New edition implies a 'close the shades' type winter. Has the broad, flat Pacific ridge south of the Aleutians and +AO/NAO for the entire winter. Lucky for us the CFS is not as bad.

Next week looks potentially active with a frontal boundary in the area and a series of subtle shortwaves moving through the northwesterly flow aloft.

I've seen worse patterns heading into the heart of summer. This look would likely produce temps around average for the MA.

57 here.