CAPE
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In progress.
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At this juncture the depiction on the means is reasonably close to what we want, but plenty of details that will determine the ultimate outcome remain unresolved.
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A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS.
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Pretty epic run. A weak wave with some light snow on Xmas day, and it has the storm on the 27th.
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Verbatim it's a big hit along I-95 and east. NW burbs would see several inches.
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6z GFS does things with the initial vortex- more symmetrical and turns it under the block instead of it sliding out towards 50-50. A piece of energy rotating down phases with the main shortwave.
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2.12" total.
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The initial wave sliding east under the NAO ridge towards 50-50 is weaker, and more energy is dumped into the main shortwave- so a stronger shortwave with less resistance above and it doesn't dig as far south. Fairly subtle differences in the wave interactions can make big differences in the outcome.
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Somewhere up that way. Near Allentown iirc.
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Damn I remember him. That was before we had sub forums. PA dude right?
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Once some get a sniff of the good stuff, concern sets in that it can't be real, and rationalization begins.
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I would say there would have to be significant error in the modeled PNA state to end up with a classic cutter.
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Whenever I make an intentionally dense post I think of him for inspiration.
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Seen it plenty of times in our prime backloaded winters. Snow otg in early March survives nicely when temps are in the mid to upper 20s on a sunny day. Ofc at most that lasts one day.
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Even that cannot overcome the searing hot Feb sun bleeding through the dense clouds.
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Imagine not understanding that our inability to stay cold at this latitude is why snow never sticks around long.
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Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.
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True soaker. Overflowing ditches and water laying everywhere. Need this ground to dry up some so all that moist soil doesn't eat all the snow to come next week. 1.77" so far
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That is one iteration among many other disparate runs in that timeframe.
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I doubt it too. Yes could happen that way, but seems a bit unusual. More likely part of the 'figuring it out' process. Just looking at h5 vorticity and the nature of the main Shortwave diving SE in conjunction with the wave coming in further south under the western ridge, it would seem much of that southern energy would get absorbed (phase with) the main wave digging south, and the rest would be left behind, with very little energy shooting out ahead to help induce that initial coastal low.
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All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one.. eta- by 'next one' I mean next model cycle lol. Both runs are good.
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Hell of a look for a follow up HECS (Feb 2010) LOL.. just need a few adjustments to get the shortwave as advertised more neutral and we got something.
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That's sort of where the constant analysis and especially the damn snow maps (with the runs that have weenie outcomes) can skew expectations. This is a sick ass good pattern and it will be more mature by next week. That said, a solid warning criteria event is much more realistic in December than a KU.
