CAPE

Everything is out of whack with the setup for this one to produce rain in our region. Nice writeup from Mount Holly- Sunday morning`s 12Z sounding from Upton, NY had a PWAT value of 0.70" approaching the 10th percentile value for August 14th of 0.67". The 12Z sounding from Sterling, VA was relatively closer to normal for August 14th, 1.10" as compared to a median value of 1.27". The difference between these two soundings help depict the gradient of moisture that exists across the region, with slightly below normal values further south towards Delmarva and well below normal values further north towards northern New Jersey. This overall lack of moisture is a key factor in the near term forecast. A short wave embedded in an upper-level trough will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. While PVA associated with this wave will increase forcing, the moisture advection with this wave will not be sufficient to overcome the amount of dry air currently in place. An increase in cloud coverage is expected overnight associated with the increase in instability but the dry air will prevent precipitation from occurring through much of the earlier hours on Monday. With the initial short wave offshore, the upper-level trough will dig further south resulting in largely easterly onshore flow at the surface. While a relative increase in surface moisture can be expected with the onshore flow, PVA will be forced further south by the trough and the best forcing will be further south along with it. The decrease in forcing combined with continued dry air in the lower levels above the surface has led to further decreased rain chances for Monday. Chance PoPs remain in the areas most likely to receive precipitation (Delmarva and the Lehigh Valley) but may need to be reduced further given the drier trend. For Tuesday, the surface low will push offshore and make a turn to the north, sliding up the coast. In the mid-levels, a 500 mb low will close off during the day on Tuesday across Pennsylvania. Previous runs of the GFS had been trying to pull the surface low closer to shore and strengthen it more than other guidance. However, the 14/12z deterministic and its ensembles have reverted back in line with the ECMWF and Canadian favoring a path further offshore, albeit still a bit deeper of a low. With consensus now keeping the track of the low offshore again, precipitation chances are subsequently decreasing and becoming more confined to the Jersey shore and southern parts of Delaware. In addition, the closed 500 mb low positioning is also likely acting to reduce precipitation amounts with the core of the low progged to sit over top of us. This will act to limit large scale ascent as vorticity rounds the base of the trough off to our south and east.

For those wanting a mostly dry period this week, the trend is your friend. 12z GFS has next to nothing for the eastern third of the region.

A flock of geese flew overhead while I was outside working on the lawn this morning. Seems a tad early to see them in flight, but I am no expert.

It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up.

The bay definitely impacts climo locally. I especially notice it in Fall and early winter driving from my house in the interior to Easton and points west. Always several degrees warmer there, and later frost/freeze.

Some abnormally dry in eastern DE, with a small area of moderate drought at the immediate coast around Rehoboth.

Pretty big differences between the GFS and EURO wrt the evolution of the upper low and eventual coastal surface low track. Trend is somewhat drier overall, but best chances for significant rain in our region appear to be further inland and more towards the SW portion, with the coastal low further offshore. Folks in NE in the drought stricken areas will love the GFS, while the EURO says enjoy the nice dry weather.

57 here. Heading outside to do yardwork shortly.

For those who have La Nina winter doom, the forecast is still for the Nina to generally weaken through winter. Equal chances of Nina or Neutral by the latter half. From the CPC ENSO discussion updated yesterday:

The weekend looks glorious. Perfect for reseeding.

I was just looking at that. Thinking the same thing. Could be good for here early Jan.

Major pattern change in progress. Looks like highs mostly in the upper 70s-low 80s over the weekend and next week. Probably some shower chances too. Bring it.

Barely a quarter inch here.

Outside of a Modoki Nino with persistent HL blocking, getting snow is a crapshoot, and we mostly score with fluky/well timed events east of the highlands. The big EPO ridge winter of 2013-14 was fluky, despite having some significant cold around. Could have easily been a lot of cold and dry, mild and wet with a general lack of NA blocking. The coastal plain doing well last Jan when the pattern shifted to colder (while inland NW areas mostly missed out) was pretty fluky. Multiple scrapers that could have easily been fish storms and complete misses everywhere. We just can't know, esp not now lol.

There will be a threat for warning criteria snowfall, and you will track it.

What do you think lol? It's August and we want a tool that gives us an idea of what the general pattern will be in January. Outside of Enso, there isn't much else that's worth a damn at this juncture.

CFS is on one of its good runs lately. There's hope!!

87/73 here currently. High was 90.

A local AFD will feature the phrase "uncomfortably dry".

I got weenied a few weeks back by a couple posters in the July LR thread for suggesting that late July/early August would likely feature typical peak summer weather, and nothing extreme. Warminstas be serious about the big heat tho, even when it only 'exists' on a GFS op run 300 hours out.

87/72 Sultry.

Yeah pretty typical heat the last few weeks. More humid than hot. I think I hit 94 one day here, but other than that its been mostly mid to upper 80s and a few low 90s. The high dews make it gross if you have to be outside physically doing something.

Perhaps an extended period of normal/below normal temps, and some days with reasonable dew points for mid month period.

This looks refreshing.