CAPE

James has a torn Achilles again. Exactly what I suspected when I saw the replay.

Didn't escape the injuries though. Fuller looks like he might have a serious knee injury late on a trash time play. James has an ankle injury(as reported during the game), and that didn't look too good. Hopefully Ronnie Stanley is ready.

Basically a preseason game for the Ravens. Not pretty, but the starters got in some good reps and knocked some rust off.

That was a pretty play. And needed. Ravens really to get Stanley back in there. That James injury didn't look good. Looked like a potential Achilles injury again.

Wholly unimpressive here. Drizzle and a few light showers so far. 0.08" Maybe this evening. Or tomorrow.

I use EZ Straw seeding mulch to cover. Great stuff.

I have been doing mine in stages. Started mid August. Mostly reseeding in the usual places that burn to hell in mid summer, plus some overseeding. Cool season tall fescue does fine with the warmer soil. The Black Beauty germinates in 6-7 days this time of year. I like to get it established before the leaves start coming down in earnest.

You mean next weekend? 0z GFS had something but stays SE on the 6z run. Ensemble mean offshore.

57 here this morning.

Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 11 2022 - 12Z Mon Sep 12 2022 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN WISCONSIN... ...Mid-Atlantic & Ohio Valley... The disturbance that has been dawdling in the Lower Mississippi Valley for several days will finally be picked up by the amplifying trough heading for the Great Lakes and sent into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon. The region will also become positioned closer to the diffluent right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak orienting itself along the spine of the Appalachians. There will be no shortage of atmospheric moisture from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic with a steady dose of 850mb moisture flux and PWs ranging between 2.0-2.25". PWs in the Mid-Atlantic are right around, if not slightly above, the 90th climatological percentile for the date. The best instability will be found from northern Florida to the Virginia Tidewater where ~1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE is expected Sunday afternoon. Storm motions will be rather progressive, but deep warm cloud layers of ~12,000' AGL will allow for storms to be efficient rainfall producers. It has also been a relatively wet 7-day period from Pennsylvania on south through the central and southern Appalachians with AHPS 7-day rainfall totals ranging between 300-600% of normal. With antecedent soil moisture conditions more saturated than normal and heavy thunderstorms expected to contain torrential downpours at times, a Slight Risk has been maintained from northern North Carolina to the Lower Delaware and Susquehanna Valleys. Poor drainage areas with sensitive soils and residing within urbanized communities are most at-risk to flash flooding.

This should probably be in the October-September LR thread. Or maybe not. Ask Chuck. No other global model has it, nor does the GEFS, so we shall see. Most likely stays disorganized/offshore.

The lower eastern shore and S DE keep missing the good rain. Actually a small area of severe drought now in the Lewes - Rehoboth area. Abnormally dry for much of the mid to upper eastern shore, despite the rain earlier in the week.

58. So nice out this morning.

NFL is back tonight! Super excited. Great opening game and there is no other sport even close for entertainment value. NFL is KING. FALL IS HERE! Ravens seem to be pretty healthy after last seasons injury debacle, and they made some key additions. Lamar is motivated. Lets go!!

I did Dolly Sods in May. Amazing. Would be way more amazing in Fall. Rough, slow drive up there, so be prepared. Totally worth it. It is like another world. (eastern Canada). The trails aren't very well marked so best to have something like AllTrails app, and not the free version, as chances of getting a connection there is not good.

meh.

No chance of rain here for 4 days!! Nothing but sunshine, normal temps, and comfortable humidity levels.

Some pretty darn nice weather on tap for the next 3-4 days. Seasonable, with pretty comfortable dew points. Looks potentially active again for early next week.

Cloudy and drizzle here. Temp right around 70 all day.

If one must have an expectation going in, median is reasonable. For the lowlands at our latitude snowfall can vary quite a bit from winter to winter depending on the overall pattern and luck, but in general we suck.

Because certain folks here need to 'mentally prepare' for the devastation of not getting much snow, in a region where snow is always a challenge. If only everyone had reasonable expectations based on their climo lol.

The general gloom and doom is a bit dramatic/emotional imo. The Strat water vapor impacts are highly uncertain for the upcoming winter, and the influence of QBO phase is nebulous wrt tropospheric impacts/ HL blocking. ENSO most likely will be trending neutral mid to late winter..

Latest CFS runs implying a pretty favorable look for December and Jan with +heights up top, and the PAC ridge is displaced more eastward towards the west coast for Jan. Neutral to +PNA.

Ended up with 1.52 inches. The last half inch was nickel and dime showers on the back side over a longer duration. No sun here today. Socked in, and it feels coolish. Currently 69.

Seeing some scattered showers here on the backside of the low. Up to 1.2".