CAPE

Pretty nice Xmas eve h5 look on the 18z GEFS-

It's not very useful unless looking beyond day15. The current ens runs go out to the 25th. Also based on the 0z run, 3 cycles ago.

Yeah especially after a month+ of pattern chasing.

Exactly. Perfectly stated.

Ultimately more separation between our wave of interest, and the vortex off the NE coast that is heading for 50-50. Also don't want all of the energy sucked out of the low when it's in the plains, so better timing upstream as well. As always, it is mostly wave timing. All our hopes and dreams are based on quite random events lol.

That's not a kicker though. It's the opposite really. It's so close on the heels that it is absorbing much of the energy from the low(the storm) out ahead of it. That leaves a weaker, strung out vorticity ribbon ejected eastward that is then weakened/absorbed by the vortex off the NE coast.

Slightly off the peak. When will the zero crossing be?

Ok enough of the negativity dude. Your Eagles are 11-1.

The GFS simulation likely isn't the ultimate outcome. That setup at the surface tho. I mean, the wall of HP with the low off the Canadian Maritimes. Goddamn. Slight adjustments..

If this were to be the ultimate outcome, I will take an inch or 2 at this juncture.

Basically the same outcome on the 18z GFS. Not enough spacing between the (would be) 50-50 low, and our wave of interest. Too much upper confluence/convergence on the backside of that vortex and it kills the lift.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD. They don't have a clue what's going to transpire later this week and aren't afraid to admit it. Love it. Guidance has grown more inconsistent regarding the next system expected to affect our weather later in the week. This is likely due in part to uncertainty regarding movement of blocking systems ahead of it, similar to what occurred at the end of this present week. 12Z GFS now suppresses the entire system to our south, keeping us dry and chilly. GGEM is fastest of all, spreading precip across the region Wednesday night through Thursday, with low pressure slowly pushing to our northeast Friday. ECMWF is slowest, holding precip back until later Thursday and holding it around through Friday. For this reason, held pops back somewhat, keeping them capped at low end likely, with the highest odds of precip being late Thursday. Enough cold air may persist from our strong high to the north to result in some onset wintry mix, but odds still favor a change to rain for most. However, this system`s outlook is in a considerable state of flux, so its something we`ll be watching closely over the next few days. GGEM and ECMWF do both share the theme of developing a strong, coast-hugging low pressure which could bring heavy rain and gusty winds, perhaps some coastal flooding, so its a system to keep plenty of eyes on...to say nothing of the 6Z GFS`s snowy depiction. Lots of uncertainty on this one, to say the least.

Where we are today in the Med/LR thread.

You talking pure Miller B, Modified? Hybrid? Semi-hybrid? I'll say this, a singular gulf coast low that tracks up the east coast(Miller A) doesn't happen that often, so all these other events that give us snow must be called something else. Miller C? Personally, I hate these labels. Not very useful.

I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy.

A little more spread and a bit further offshore than 6z but not bad.

Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens.

Not exactly this, but in general lol.

Yeah I kinda like where this is at. I am getting slightly interested.

Ice storm in central NC.. on the north fringe of snow here lol. That HP is a wall.

Damn..

There are some fundamental elements in place that we want ahead of a potential winter storm.. Massive strong HP to the north of the Great Lakes- not no stinking GL low- with lower pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes.

Come on man, post the more weenie p-type map.