CAPE

Volatile. Weeeeeee!

Close the shades y'all. It's over.

That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.

Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.

^Just in case some context was needed to go along with the invaluable snow maps posted in isolation above.

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there.

The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.

Latest on the LES event. Looks like there will still be snow showers during the game on Sunday, but most of the snow will have fallen by then. Let's see how efficient they are at removal at the stadium.

Yeah as advertised that is just the -NAO keeping us a tad on the cool side at best. If he wants to use an extended tool to WOOF over that period, he could make a better case using the 12z CFS depiction.

It only has like 6 different lows lol. But yeah its a mild rain storm with cold coming in behind verbatim. Has it raining Thanksgiving evening into Friday.

At 200+ hours out it's probably not worth posting individual panels for snow/p-type every run. The general idea is the same as the previous run and the biggest question at this juncture, should there be a storm, is how much cold can get involved.

Getting the AK ridge more eastward and poleward is a big deal in a Nina. If we get that feature in a favorable position with some persistence we can get cold and keep the SE ridge suppressed. We shall see about the AO/NAO, but it appears the HL will be favorable for a time at least.

We really just can't know beyond a couple weeks. Keep an eye on the advertised look on the ens means, the MJO forecast, and what the Pacific jet is doing. The Extended/weekly tools going out 4-6 weeks are what they are. Fun to look at when they show something nice, but high uncertainty and prone to flip-flopping over a few runs.

Generally yes on both. Biggest issue is still going to be climo for the lowlands.

Signal for something during that timeframe on the EPS too. Looks like a Miller B type evolution, which isn't surprising. Yes the general pattern for that period is decent enough as advertised, esp the developing -NAO and 50-50 low.

Potential post Turkey Day storm on the GEFS. A handful of members are semi-interesting.

These snowfall forecasts are always the generic NW to SE gradient. Hard to predict what specific area might get 'bonus' snow. That said, it is pretty typical to see a bit of a dead zone in the I-95 corridor of the MA in a Nina, and ofc DC itself generally struggles to get snow more than immediate surrounding areas.

0.92"

That was a super close miss for I-95. It worked out pretty well for places east, esp the immediate coast. Hard to do better than that setup in a Nina. Always take that pattern and let the chips fall.

It would be more accurate to say that these 'perfect' patterns depicted on LR guidance rarely materialize. Ofc we know that, and in most cases we end up seeing winter storms in patterns that are not ideal.

Temp was 30 at midnight. Radiated well last evening. Warmed a tad this morning. 32 at 5am.

The Bills are home Sunday against the Browns.

Discussion from NWS Buffalo Anyone gonna chase? .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.

Eagles are a solid team, but they weren't going undefeated. Their D is a little suspect. Nice ball control game plan by the Commanders, and forced turnovers.