CAPE

87/71 Pretty gross. Still looks like we get a couple days with a refreshing airmass featuring normal temps and dewpoints in the 50s the end of the week, but the warm and sultry conditions look to return pretty quickly. Embrace MA extended summer.

Oak tree blight has been common on the eastern shore for years, but not sure what the cause is- probably multiple factors. Primary symptom is the tree doesn't fully leaf out, and the following year basically nothing, so its dead standing. Some info here from UMD- https://extension.umd.edu/resource/why-oak-trees-are-declining-or-dying The photo at that link is what the trees here look like up top before they rapidly deteriorate. I have a big one over my parking area with several dead branches and just had it cleaned up a week ago. Temporary fix as the tree will likely have to come down next year. I have 3 that are dead standing out back and the insects and woodpeckers are having at those, but they are far enough back that I will probably let nature take its course. The oak tree that fell a few weeks ago during a storm was a victim of carpenter ants- it had a weird extended trunk at the base with an opening that probably gave them access.

I teach everything from sensors- RTDs and thermocouples, pressure and flow measurement methods etc, PLC programming and troubleshooting, PID control/tuning, to industrial networks that are found on modern vessels. In general we provide technical and regulatory/safety training to US Merchant marines, MSC, US Navy, Cruise ship industry, dredging and marine services.

Gas hydraulic splitter here. Bought it in 2005 after clearing part of the lot for the building site. Its held up well. I think I bought firewood twice in all the years since. With 6 acres of hardwoods and oak tree disease pretty common here, usually no shortage of wood to harvest for fuel.

I teach all aspects of industrial automation/process control to Marine engineers. You can probably figure out where knowing generally where I live and letting Google help a little.

I love technical, and much of what I teach is probably considered esoteric, but I struggle with his content at times- although I appreciate it. I dig fluid mechanics, but I am kinda hanging on when I read some of his tweets.

No dead/dying/fallen trees on all that land to harvest firewood? I have a couple winters worth of wood stacked up that needs to be split- combo of fallen trees and dead standing ones that I cut. I'll get the log splitter going in the Fall (so November) when it feels more like firewood season. I'll never pay for firewood again. Overpriced, mostly green, never cut to the right size, and with other crap mixed in despite being advertised as seasoned hardwood.

Impressive outflow triggering more cells/more outflow. Pretty cool depiction on DOV radar.

That never works. August-September and even later is the best time. I like to get it established before the leaves come down.

Area of Abnormally dry just NE of my area now, although it seems like that is consistently where the rain goes when it misses my yard lately lol. Moderate drought continues for coastal DE. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

4.3" for the month here, but 3 of it came in one event early in the month. Was just outside watering all the plants and the new grass. Where I don't water the soil is powder. eta- the moles are now coming out of the woods and looking for food in the wet oasis that is the new grass area. Just can't win with grass here lol.

October-December are our Fall months.

Extended summer is annoying but has become the norm. I escaped much of it with my trip to the UK last September, but I was still able to 'enjoy' the warm and muggy weather when I got back for the latter third of the month.

Went to bed not expecting much, but picked up some decent rain overnight. 0.68". Looks like there is an area of heavier rain with some training south of here. I can still hear the thunder. Places just south of Denton have received 2"+.

Patterns like that can bring the cold, but if the AO/NAO is predominately neutral/positive then timing is more critical as the flow is progressive. We lucked into some nice events those winters. The Atlantic wasn't exactly 'garbage' either. Still, pretty fluky. Could have easily been more of the cold and dry/mild and wet type deal. A +PNA pattern can also be on the dry side. The data clearly shows the importance of a -AO for the DC area to get above avg snowfall. We need the Pac to not be completely hostile, and at this latitude a pronounced STJ is important as well. Thus why the combo of Moderate Nino -AO/-NAO is the holy grail. In that scenario the Pac will at least be serviceable, a strong southern stream will bring the juice, and HL blocking will encourage a mean storm track further south with cold feeding in from the N/NE.

I saw the radar then looked at the HRRR. I figured it would be dead on.

Yeah there is a difference between grass going dormant, and completely losing its roots and going to thatch. I have the latter with about 50% of mine. Harsh here in the woods, plus well drained soil. A bit of work and it will be back and look nice again until the growing season ends around Jan 1.

Pretty typical for late summer. Trees dropping plenty of leaves. About half my grass always gives up, and won't come back. Started reseeding last weekend. Already have seedlings after 7 days from stage 1. Warm August soil with lowering sun angle. Just have to provide the water until it rains.

The usual annual grass reseeding project. Soil was dry and powdery when I loosened it up on Saturday. Been dry over here the last couple weeks.

Picked up a half inch with a cell that moved through earlier this afternoon. Won't have to water for a day or 2.

^It hasn't rained there much lately.

Yeah that is the good winter scenario for here that I was speaking of. Most people understand that. We also can do ok with various other ENSO states, but it's more of a crapshoot. A persistent -AO/-NAO has the highest correlation to cold/ above avg snow here, and HL blocking concurrent with a C. Pac based Nino gives us the best odds.

What other choice is there other than letting it play out? The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

Low of 58 here. Super nice stretch of weather. Could use some rain here, but since I am reseeding, controlled watering with the sprinkler is ok for now.

One can only hope.