CAPE
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End of the 12z EPS run has the beginnings of the pattern being advertised on the much of the extended guidance heading into Dec. Building heights into Greenland, lower heights (TPV lobes) underneath, -EPO/neutral PNA.
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77 here now. Only tolerable because of the breeze, but if you are in direct sun actually doing something.. btw you can say fuck.
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He doesn't do analysis. He perpetually parrots Twitter randos who post stuff that aligns with his narrative.
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Yeah looks like I kinda wasted my time this morning lol. Getting breezy out there now and they are dumping. I have to do it in stages here or they pile up to the point I have to use the rake more than the blower.
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Perpetual leaf fall has commenced over the last few days, unaided by wind. Definitely earlier than usual. Typically right about peak now and the leaf dump is more towards mid November.
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Not snow, but puking leaves here now. Accumulating rapidly, despite my removal efforts.
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Nina
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It's trying to involve a tropical wave (which it moves into the Gulf) with the front, way later than the other models. Verbatim it's a miss here and snow for the coast of NE lol.
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Latest CFS for early-mid Dec. Similar to latest Euro weeklies. This would be a heck of a pattern leading up to the holidays.
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Refreshing early June morning. 58.
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GFS op doing its thing in the LR.
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Next weekend looks decidedly more chilly than this one behind the late week frontal passage. Instead of approaching 80, it appears temps will struggle to hit 50. Upper 20s/30s for lows Sunday night.
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Temp anomaly is around -3F at the surface for that period verbatim. Take it fwiw, and best to glean only the very general idea with these overly smoothed super LR tools. Ofc the actual h5 pattern for that timeframe could always end up the antithesis of what is currently being advertised.
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Latest LR/extended guidance suggests a brief period of +PNA, but then it trends back neutral/negative. Generally seasonable temps for mid to late month looks like a good bet right now. Remains to be seen if we get some NAO help by the end of the month. Euro weeklies still suggestive of higher heights building over Greenland for early December.
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EPO ridge gets established mid month on the big 3 global ens means.
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This was predictable.
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They clearly don't understand that the beaches get more snow than the corridor in a Nina. Bust.
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It may end up being average if the LR guidance is correct and a shift in the pattern is underway around mid month. The last third of the month could be cooler than average. Ofc we just cant know yet.
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This weekend looks legit June-like.
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0.65" here overnight. Some heavy downpours.
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A bit early for me. I usually try to wait until December.
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Pretty good agreement for some sort of a workable pattern evolving over the next several weeks. Main issue would be climo ofc. December snow is highly desirable and romanticized, but not very often realized in the MA lowlands.
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New edition of CanSIPS for December at h5. Surface temps normal to slightly below for our region, precip slightly above. I am sure we could thread the needle for some seriously cold rain out of a set up like this.
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Giving up a 2 and a 5 and a spare part LB..so the question is can they actually keep this dude long term? Otherwise a bit steep for a rental.
