CAPE

No idea lol. It will show every possible pattern multiple times between now and late Fall. I just took a look and saw what it was advertising and figured it was perfect to post in a winter discussion thread in June.

Only about 800 more runs and we might have a better idea.

Looks/sounds like something decent incoming here in Easton. Everything has missed my yard so far this morning.

Always a good bet. I would disengage now if I were you.

lol @ op runs at range Given the look of the longwave pattern on the means, temps will moderate next week as the upper ridge nudges east, but I will take the under on those temps. Whatever heat we get, it again looks to be pretty short lived, and I would expect a few days in the low 90s with the big heat staying to our SW. Ofc with flow more out of the west downsloping (compressional heating) could boost temps some. Should be a dry heat. Before we all fry next week, the upcoming weekend looks incredible, much like the weather we enjoyed the weekend before last.

That's been me lately lol. The worm has turned? Until the next mini drought.

Still getting some light to moderate rain on the backside of that complex. Up to 1.73".

It developed a miniature comma head as it moved through my area. Those areas just to my west that were under it had 3"+

Places not far from me received over 3" from that line/complex of storms. If you saw it on radar it definitely had some vorticity to it. Leftover MCV maybe interacting with the frontal boundary.

1.47" No watering for awhile.

Maybe the best storm here all Spring/Summer. Deluge. Plenty of T&L. Very little wind so far.

Pretty impressive line of storms approaching here now. Noisy.

That might be a good thing. Get some surface heating and hope remnant energy from the MCS carcass can trigger something.

Another decent looking line goes poof on the doorstep lol. Heard some good rumbles of thunder and now some drizzle.

I missed everything over the weekend when heavy rain wording was in the forecast. Watered everything Sunday evening, then got a heavy shower early yesterday morning when there was a 20% chance. The nature of how we rain in Summer. You just hope to not be in one of the locations that constantly misses. Under an inch here over the last 2 weeks. Could use a deluge sometime this week before the pattern shifts.

After the frontal passage on Friday, looks like a bit of a blocking pattern sets up for the weekend into next week. The weekend looks outstanding with high temps around 80 and lows in the 50s. This seems to be a recurring theme so far for late Spring/early summer. Hopefully it keeps repeating.

He is probably right for the most part. There will be some storms this morning into early afternoon, triggered by remnant MCS outflow/ interaction with the frontal boundary that lies across the region. Certainly could still see some isolated to scattered wind damage esp with any convection that occurs towards midday with additional heating.

Given the position and amplitude of the upper ridge( and the upper low to the NE), I am leaning towards this idea, although DC and parts of S MD might be in the path. Overall trends in the guidance support this. I would be good with a half inch of rain here, hold the drama. I think for my yard the best chance for some decent convection might come from forcing out in front of the main complex with good instability in place.

Nice writeup from Mount Holly in their afternoon AFD on the model discrepancies and the most likely outcomes given the synoptics.. Quiet and humid conditions on tap for most of the night. All eyes then shift on an MCS that will develop over the Great Lakes region and take a run at the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. The bulk of the instability will be south of that front over Delmarva, the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, and extreme southern New Jersey. With surface dew points well in the 60s to around 70, surface-based CAPE values should be upwards of 1500+ J/kg. The concern is that there is still a good deal of discrepancies among the models as to the timing and placement of the MCS. The 12Z/13 NAM brings a fairly intense squall line into Philadelphia, northern Delmarva, and into southern New Jersey late Tuesday morning and into midday. The 12Z/13 NAMNEST is a bit weaker, but is a bit more to the southwest compared to the NAM, and the brunt of the line would go through eastern Maryland and Delaware before moving into southern New Jersey. Think the NAMNEST would be more probable than the NAM as the instability looks to be limited north of Delaware. The 12Z/13 HRRR seems to follow the NAMNEST, though may be an hour or so slower. The 12Z/13 Fv3 is faster than both the NAM and the HRRR, and brings showers and thunderstorms into Maryland and Delaware in the pre-dawn hours just ahead of the main MCS. Should this happen, this may stabilize the air mass just before the MCS gets there, and the impacts may be more limited compared to the more aggressive NAM/HRRR. 12Z/13 GFS follows suit with a weaker and faster system. 12Z/13 WRF-ARW has the system decaying as it moves into Delmarva late Tuesday morning. 12Z/13 RGEM keeps it together, but is so far south and west that it only impacts the eastern shores of Maryland. The 12Z/13 ECMWF seems to be much slower, not really making it into the southwest portions of the forecast area until midday or so. Feel the best way to handle this is to have the MCS approach Reading just after daybreak Tuesday, and tracking to the south along the stationary front and towards the area of highest instability, which is over Delmarva. Factoring in that these systems also tend to take a right turn, think the strongest portions of the MCS will stay southwest of a line from Reading to Philadelphia to Atlantic City. Will focus an area of likely PoPs on portions of the Delaware Valley, Delmarva, and southwest New Jersey. Heavy rain, strong, damaging winds, and large hail are likely. Although this system should move quickly, there is the potential for localized flash flooding

Picked up 0.35" from a localized cell that moved through early this morning. Heard one rumble of thunder.

I am good with a decaying feature moving through. Eff damaging winds, but some solid rain with T&L would be cool.

Morning take from Mount Holly on the MCS- We continue to monitor the chances for a decaying MCS that guidance has persistently been forecasting to transition from from the Midwest and across the Great Lakes towards the East Coast. With many environmental factors present to support such a system, it really comes down to where today`s cold front stalls. Should it stay further north and stall over our region to just north of our region, then the MCS would likely ride along the boundary around the expansive ridge to our southwest. If the deepening and closed 500 mb low over the Saint Lawrence River shifts further southwest, then the high over Ontario will push the continental airmass further south and take the front cleanly through our area. There is actually pretty decent spatial agreement as of this morning with the GFS, NAM, EC, and Canadian taking the MCS across Pennsylvania from northwest to southeast and into the Delmarva Peninsula. Best chances are probably across the northern Chesapeake Bay region around Baltimore to northeastern Maryland and norther Delaware. On the other hand, there remains poorer agreement temporally- speaking. Timing of this system remains difficult to iron out given that the thunderstorm complex is just now forming over portions of South Dakota. The GFS remains the fastest of the model spread, bringing the system through around 8 am tomorrow, whereas the others bring it in around noon to the very early afternoon. While all severe hazards can come into play with these systems, damaging straight-line winds is the greatest threat. Forecast sounding suggest dry air entrainment should support healthy cold pool maintenance, which should balance well with low-level shear. The more optimal the balance between these two, the greater the longevity of the system. With the forecast taking the system around the northeastern flank of a broad zone of 4000 to 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE, there shouldn`t be any problem in the way of lifting, it`s just how well it is maintained today across the Midwest. A quick look at the current cloud cover on satellite suggests the relatively clear conditions should foster a supportive future for the feature today.

The heavy rain in the forecast for here looks like a bust. All too familiar look to the radar. Mesos look very meh for later today too. Going to have to do some watering today.

Touched 70 here briefly when the sun broke through a bit. Warm front will be moving northward towards morning with decent increase in PW esp I-95 and east. Should be some heavy showers/storms moving through in the AM.

Interesting read from the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly.. Unsettled weather on tap for the short term period. Surface high pressure will be over the eastern Atlantic Saturday night, and the area will be in between return flow behind the high and a warm front lifting north as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. A mid-level trough with a strong shortwave will dig down through the Appalachians late Saturday night, and the base of the trough will cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday morning. An area of showers and possible thunderstorms will develop late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with a focus on Delmarva. 12Z/10 NAM indicating between 500 and 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE as surface temperatures rise into the mid and upper 60s and surface dew points rise into the low to mid 60s. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be from 35 to 40 kt. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, and cannot even rule out a couple of stronger storms with some locally heavy rain. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A warm and humid airmass will spread into the region Sunday behind the earlier warm front. Surface-based CAPE values will be upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, MUCAPE values will be over 1500 J/kg, and 0-6 km Bulk shear will be upwards of 55 to 60 kt. PWATs will be over 1.5 inches. Bottom line is that a severe weather and possible flash flooding event is becoming likely Sunday afternoon and evening. Followed NBM guidance for PoPs and ramped up to categorical and likely for the area.