CAPE

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

With the -EPO/WPO getting established, cold air will be able to increase/expand in our source region via cross polar flow. Follow the streamlines.

I made a post about the potential for next week a few days ago using h5 from a global ens mean. At 7 days out just posting a snow map without any supporting discussion of the setup, well, that's not really very useful in a discussion thread. And yes, it will quickly cascade into a race to see who can be first to post a snow map for the next model cycle. Meh.

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

Pretty chilly next week coast to coast.

The schedule is favorable for a run. Defense could transform from a debacle the first few games to a dominant unit with the players that are returning, the addition of Smith, and younger players like Hamilton figuring it out. Wish there was some way to get a legit receiver, but OBJ would probably be the only option for a significant upgrade at this point, and he will have suitors that will pay him more than the Ravens. Probably Jerry Jones.

I mentioned it in banter thinking someone else would start it lol. My interest was mainly to declutter this thread a bit. Go for it my man.

Not dying for rain over here. An inch would do nicely.

Just wish there was some sign of an actual professional level passing game. We will see how far they can go with good TEs, mediocre receivers, and Roman's simplistic schemes. OL looks healthy and dominant, and Edwards should be back after the bye week. Smash mouth and Defense will have to do it- the Raven way. Smith is a tackling machine and makes a huge difference in the middle.

Ravens offense tonight against NO- No Bateman(now out for the season) No Andrews No Gus the Bus And no Dobbins Good luck Lamar! Will need a dominant performance from the OL, and Likely will need to have a big game. And the defense needs to kick some azz.

Nicole remnant thread?

CFS continues to look pretty weenie with the pattern progression heading into early Dec. Love seeing those +height anomalies in the HL.

Thankfully this anomalous warmth is done, although it may feel pretty tropical with some heavy rain towards the end of the week. Should be frosty tomorrow night. By Sunday into Monday high temps wont make 50 and there is a decent shot at first freeze for the lowlands.

It distorted expectations for some for awhile. Ji still hasn't recovered.

Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter.

Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm.

Could this be the first 'period of interest' for something wintry? Climo is hostile so a longshot for the lowlands, but a pretty interesting look as advertised. Amplified longwave pattern, anomalous cold already in place for much of the US, with more NS energy dropping in and an eastbound southern disturbance in the central US. GFS op has been giving some digital snow around the 18th in recent runs. Something to keep an eye on mostly for the western highlands.

Seeing enough on the extended guidance over the past week or so that this sort of progression would seem plausible. If these tools have any skill at all, they should be able to sniff out the general h5 look 3-4 weeks out.

Latest GEFS Extended for the first week in December. Inside of a month now.

Good point. So far he has really only been active in this thread, which will quickly die as we get into actual winter(soon). If he starts crapping up the more pertinent discussion/storm threads with his shtick, well..

I gave in and turned the AC on last evening when it was still 68 at 8pm. Low of 64.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the trough interacts with that low moving westward towards Florida. CMC turns it NE quicker and keeps most of the action off the coast. Someone should bump the tropical thread.

Remember last December? The 'shades down' pattern? No way out! Except 2 weeks later..

Can we at least keep this dude in his own sub? He contributes nothing substantive, so no reason for him to come here and constantly shit up the place.

This is why you are post limited. It's a seasonal mean ffs. Just stop.