CAPE

0z EPS for the 12-13th window where a more significant event could materialize involving a coastal low. A decent signal has been there in recent runs on the means. This one may be more complex.. Miller B-ish.

0z Euro runs a wave to our south on the 10th and snows on VA. Near hit. Clean and simple. The setup is nice. Highs and lows positioned where we want them for a frozen event. Low pressure ideally would be further NE off the Maritimes to avoid damping/suppressing the wave as it heads towards the coast, but it is an op run that shows the generally favorable setups we can get with a legit -NAO. 0z GFS has a modest wave with a similar outcome in the same window, a bit earlier.

Well that similarity IS there, but yes, unusual.

I loved interacting with him here, and it would be great if he decided to come back and contribute, but that is his decision. He chooses not to post here dude. None of my business as to why.

Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up here over the next 3 months.

Looks remarkably similar my profile pic, which is a Dec 2009 composite, minus the inverted look around the Aleutians.

I've talked to him several times by message here, and he seems content. I see him liking posts here. If he has some reason for not wanting to make posts that's his decision and its fine. To the casual observer it looks like you have an axe to grind and it has nothing to do with Mitch.

Textbook definition of a true west based block from around hour 160 through 342. Thing of beauty with the TPV vortices just shedding off and rotating underneath. Nowhere to go. I tried making an animated gif on WB but no idea how to save it lol.

It's radical. These kind of looks were seemingly extinct. This shiz needs to verify.

A bit too far south- snows on NC- but guidance continues to flash the potential around the 12th now. This might not be a big dog, for those who are hunting that sort of thing, but looking like a window for possibly a solid event. Starting to see some wild runs now and more to come. Fun times(for a change) in Dec.

CFS sniffed out the blocky look that now appears imminent pretty early. There isn't much not to like about that look. Can even see the indication of energy taking the southern route under the ridge and ejecting eastward.

CFS also going Aleutian low/ amped EPO ridge at the end of Dec into Jan. This would bring legit cold.

Based on the advertised progression that makes some sense. We haven't done big Dec snow often, esp lately, so we shall see how much a milder climo factors in. These patterns don't tend to be super cold, but generally just cold enough, which in the past has worked out pretty well.

Seeing some hints among the members for something around the 12th-13th. These blocky patterns sometimes have to mature a bit before we get our chances, but this timeframe might be the first shot at a significant event for the MA. 6 hour panels so there are a few others prior to and after this window.

Front end of the window for an uncomplicated modest wave riding along the boundary just to our south imo. This may not a big deal(or could be nothing), but a chance of flakes falling to maybe a couple inch type deal. A bigger ticket potential lies few days beyond this, maybe as soon as the 13th.

A ton of snow for coastal DE. Dry at BWI.

Check out the amplitude of the EPO ridge at the very end of the GEFSX run. In conjunction with the -AO/NAO. That trifecta is pretty rare, and maybe a meteorologically impossible occurrence according to at least one on this site. @psuhoffman

I'll take this look leading up to Xmas. I mean, I'd roll with it anytime between now and March.

Something a little interesting on the 0z Euro ens, in the window where we might expect to see a colder event with the favorable pattern established.

Lolz Pretty sure that's a 'progression' we will never see materialize.

Get well soon friend!

It is gorgeous, but at this point I think it is pretty safe to say we are going to have a period with an anomalous -NAO, possibly west based(ideal) with a respectable Pacific. Loaded with potential, minus some deductions for climo. At this point I have seen all the h5 maps I need to on the means, ad nauseam (many of which I have posted lol). We can only drool over run after run of very favorable h5 looks for so long. Time to shift the focus to discrete storm threat windows. Should be showing up if this advertised pattern is legit, and we have seem some hints already on recent op runs and the ens guidance. Still like the period centered on the 12th for the earliest potential for something of interest.

Decent rain event. 0.57"

As crappy as the offense was, the defense blew that one. 7 point lead, 2 mins left. 4th down and forever. Just terrible.

Well deserved loss for the Ravens. They needed it. Can't keep winning ugly against bad teams and thinking its all good. Changes are needed.