CAPE

Early next week could be interesting depending on the exact location of the stalled front that will lie to our south. Snippet from this morning's AFD from Mount Holly- Sunday night into Monday...The surface high weakens and a low and mid level short wave trough approaches from the northwest. As this happens, the front to our south should begin to slide northward as a warm front. Exactly how far north the front will get remains uncertain, but some models have the front as far north as southern Delmarva by late Sunday night. This has implications for our region because the pattern has several similarities to a Maddox heavy rain frontal event. In these types of patterns, there is a risk for heavy rain on the north side of a E-W slow moving front. Winds aloft are nearly parallel to the front and model soundings depict very high precipitable water values (near the 90th percentile for early August) and deep warm cloud layers. If the front does get as far north as southern Delmarva, then heavy rain could be a concern for northern Delmarva and S Jersey. I added a mention of heavy rain into the forecast, but have held off on any flood watch considerations as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north the front will be.

Last 2 winters were pretty good here. Slightly above avg snowfall last winter and median the winter before that. And that is based on the long term climo average. Not sure what it actually is now for my location. I doubt it has changed as much as the UHI hell of DC.

Funny you should mention that. Have not had one for a couple weeks, so ofc its gotta be a 120 I am currently sipping on.

88/73 Pretty gross out.

I think we in the dog days now. Typical warm/hot and humid overall, although nothing really extreme over the next week. Weekend actually looks pretty decent with mid 80s and not so high dewpoints. About as good as it gets this time of year in this region. We get the Bermuda high reemerging for next week with typical 90/70 temp and dp.

Unless there is some enhancement, that line is weak sauce heading this way. Maybe enough to drizzle a bit on the drooping plants. My grass is already gone for the most part, as usual. Reseeding will commence in another week or so.

low of 77.

Not much else to talk about wrt the character of the upcoming winter at this juncture, outside of the nebulous QBO I guess. So yeah, they have to make it sound super interesting. Discussing what is probably the most logical progression (towards neutral) sounds boring.

Briefly hit 93 for the high. Back down to 91 now. It's sultry out, but just stepped out on the deck from the AC, and with the sun filtered through the trees, it felt pretty nice. For a few minutes, and engaging in little to no motion.

92/72

Taking the under on the advertised big heat was a good call. This period looked sultry with a Bermuda high and SW flow in the lower levels. Not like there is some anomalous upper ridge parked over the east. Looks pretty darn unimpressive at h5 actually.

84/72 at 11 am. Close out there.

Down to 85 here at 630. Not bad out with the low sun barely filtering through the trees. Tad bit humid though.

Monday is looking pretty interesting. I guess I could have put this in the other thread given the severe potential. Nice write-up by Mount Holly this afternoon, although I wouldn't characterize this period as one featuring "extreme heat" lol. So far, our weather has remained rather benign outside of the extreme heat. But, as expected with the introduction of a well- defined boundary into an airmass characterized by temperatures in the 90s and dew points in the 60s-70s, the main story Monday is the development of showers and thunderstorms, with some potentially severe. The best upper support looks to stay off to our north at this time. Current guidance indicates development in the mid to late afternoon with the most coverage across Delmarva and southern NJ. Taking a look at some parameters and forecast soundings, this seems to fit with progged instability and shear which are highest to the south. MLCAPE could reach around 2000 J/kg coupled with 0-6 km shear around 30 kt. As a result, SPC has placed our entire CWA within a slight risk (2/5) for severe weather and WPC has introduced a marginal risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall, though we`ve been fairly dry over the past week and this should help to limit widespread flash flood concerns.

92 was the high here. Currently 90.

91/71 here at 2pm. Not sure mid 90s are happening in my yard today.

89/70 at noon.

I have never observed 100 here that I can recall. Occasionally gets to 98. I am expecting 94-95 for today and tomorrow. Obv best chance of approaching 100 is in the urban corridor.

Not as hot but can still be humid af, even into early October. O-N-D are our Fall months.

Rather have a pattern where fronts actually push through with storm chances than a big upper ridge sitting over the east. More interesting, and there will still be plenty of sun.

73 for a low. Highest temp here this past week was 91. Let's see if we can do mid 90s today. Overall, pretty typical for late July.

Caught the edge of a storm here. Only a tenth of an inch but remains mostly cloudy with a temp of 74.

and now beer time?

87 here currently after a high of 90. Muggy.

Generally the same for my yard. 2010-11 was around average iirc, and 2017-18 and last winter were slightly above average.