CAPE

Interesting read from the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly.. Unsettled weather on tap for the short term period. Surface high pressure will be over the eastern Atlantic Saturday night, and the area will be in between return flow behind the high and a warm front lifting north as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. A mid-level trough with a strong shortwave will dig down through the Appalachians late Saturday night, and the base of the trough will cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday morning. An area of showers and possible thunderstorms will develop late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with a focus on Delmarva. 12Z/10 NAM indicating between 500 and 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE as surface temperatures rise into the mid and upper 60s and surface dew points rise into the low to mid 60s. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be from 35 to 40 kt. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, and cannot even rule out a couple of stronger storms with some locally heavy rain. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A warm and humid airmass will spread into the region Sunday behind the earlier warm front. Surface-based CAPE values will be upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, MUCAPE values will be over 1500 J/kg, and 0-6 km Bulk shear will be upwards of 55 to 60 kt. PWATs will be over 1.5 inches. Bottom line is that a severe weather and possible flash flooding event is becoming likely Sunday afternoon and evening. Followed NBM guidance for PoPs and ramped up to categorical and likely for the area.

A couple rounds of storms now look possible for Sunday. Marginally severe maybe.

Sunday is now looking like the more 'interesting' weekend day weather-wise as compared to a few days ago.

Another damn near perfect summer day. 76/52 currently

This product is usually dead on with my rain gauge. Zoom way in and you can click on your house and it will display the amount. It has 0.51" over my yard for the past 24 hours, and my gauge is reading 0.50". https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Looking at the Hi res US rainfall map, the jack zone was eastern half of Howard county, through Baltimore City, Aberdeen, and NE towards Elkton. 1.5 - 3"+ amounts.

Exactly a half inch here. As crappy as the radar looked for my yard when I went to bed, lucky to get that much.

Only a tenth of an inch for the month here, and looks like tonight is going to be pretty scattered over this way with the showers, so will need some luck. In that betwixt and between groove here lately.

Nothing here last night, and I tend to agree about tonight. With that low track we will be on the 'unstable' side with some juice, but bad timing for surface based instability. Looks more hit or miss in our area with the heavier showers/storms, while the better dynamics/forcing for more widespread rain pass further north closer to the low track.

Slight risk of excessive rain for parts of the region. I get their reasoning on the location, but given the advertised track of the shortwave/developing low, the more widespread moderate to heavy rain looks to be north. Places within in the highlighted slight risk area would appear to also have a higher chance of seeing little to no rain with convection being more scattered.

Scored a hundredth here! Getting pretty dry here all of a sudden. Despite watering, the grass is doing its usual thing. Peak lawn is always right at the end of May.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning- Things get potentially more interesting for Wednesday night. A new area of low pressure looks to take shape over the midwestern states along the lingering frontal boundary. This will then deepen as it moves northeast towards eastern PA through Wednesday night. There are still model differences regarding the strength and track of this system but the general trend appears to be towards a stronger system . Both the GEM Reg and especially the GFS depict a robust shortwave driving this system as it eventually takes on a neutral to negative tilt by early Thursday. The system will be accompanied by widespread showers and storms by late Wednesday evening through the overnight and this could actually come through in multiple rounds. And in fact we have concerns for both the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall with an associated flood/flash flood risk. This is because strengthening low moving right near the area could result in deep layer shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots. In addition both the GFS and GEM depict a strong LLJ at 850 mb advecting in PWATs of around 2 inches with this LLJ also helping to aid in increased low level shear. It is still too early to be confident in exactly how this will evolve as, along with the uncertainty regarding the strength of the system, a potentially limiting factor will be the timing during the overnight during the diurnal min of instability. Even so though, the strong low level warm and moist advection could still result in at least several hundred j/kg of CAPE which may be enough given the strong dynamics and shear.

50 here this morning. A bit Fall-like.

71 with a dp of 48 and a nice breeze out of the east. Perfect out there.

Yep, at this range there is plenty of uncertainty with exact location of the front, timing of disturbances etc.

58 this morning. Very nice out.

Should be some active periods going forward with this general pattern. Disturbances in the flow and fronts nearby combined with surface heating will be triggers.

Need to watch this shortwave digging S and E under that closed upper low over eastern Canada Wed into Thursday. For now, as depicted it's probably a bit too far north for our area.

No signs of big/prolonged heat over the next 10 days or so. This h5 pattern should generally keep temps close to normal. Should also see some shower/storm chances with disturbances and associated fronts moving through.

A near perfect weekend upcoming with plenty of sun, high temps around 80 and dewpoints in the 40s-low 50s.

0.08" total.

Watched an ep last night with a (vintage) 2020 120.

I have the sprinkler going now lol as mother nature provides some light sprinkles and drizzle to supplement . Soil already pretty dry here with the trees robbing everything.

0.02" so far.