CAPE

A bit of a stable blocking pattern setting up for the last half of the month if the GEFS is correct. A general +PNA/-NAO look. Fall weather galore, with maybe a good rain event via a coastal storm thrown in. I suppose another way to look at it is- what a damn waste in October. I will take it and hope it ends up having some persistence going forward into December.

I see bald eagles pretty often in the fields right across the road. Not sure where they nest, but they are often right in there with the vultures feasting on road kill.

38

So tough to get a little blue anywhere at h5 on the climate models these days. Ofc this is a 3month mean. The general idea is pretty decent.

Perfect Fall day. Currently 57, which is the high for the day.

low of 49 here. Currently 50. Beautiful outside. Was out mowing the new grass area and after 7 days of wet, the moles have been busy gobbling up earthworms that have ascended towards the surface. Ravaged the whole area lol. Nature always wins.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ravens-should-have-gone-for-it/

No sun here, as expected. Tomorrow will be the day. A week with no sun is pretty rare around here. Grand total for this prolonged event is 4.18".

4.12" Probably not much more today. Its been awhile since the forecast has read ' less than a tenth of an inch'. Looking forward to sun and low 70s tomorrow. Been ages!

Well its clearly not that lol. probably not due to terrain either. I think it might be related to the "spokes" of vorticity rotating around the upper low, some of which are quite small in scale. Saw a similar radar return over here last night(or the night before), hard to remember as it has become like ground hog day with the rain lol. Here is a panel from the 18z NAM just to illustrate-

Up to 3.9". I guess 4" is a lock now.

Moderate to heavy rain here now. Low rumbling thunder, elevated convection style.

Just as I say that, I hear thunder, and the radar is suddenly lit up to my east.

Not much rain here since this morning. Definitely becoming more scattered, and should be winding down overall. Still probably won't see any sun here until Thursday the way things look now. Last Thursday was the last time I saw the sun. 3.58" is the total so far. Thinking maybe another quarter inch or so at best looking at radar and guidance.

December looks dry. Maybe Jan looks dry for folks in NE. Down here the bigger concern in a setup like that is being on the wrong side of the boundary. Y'all realize this is the Mid Atlantic subforum right? Either way, its the goddamn CanSIPS lol. Just posted it for fun.

It's a course monthly mean on a climate model at h5. Ofc you are going to glean something negative from it. That look implies a gradient pattern with energy in the SW potentially ejecting disturbances eastward along the boundary. A bit of a split flow. That's what I see.. Your opinions are never yours anyway. You just post shit from twitter all day that you perceive to align with your agenda.

Not over this way. To this point the Euro has been pretty dead on. GFS Had 2" from last evening through 8am. Reality is 0.58".

This wet period has worn out the welcome at this point, but the moisture was needed at least for eastern areas. With lowering sun angle and cooler temps, a generally dry pattern over the next few weeks shouldn't have us on the brink of drought, so I am down with it. I have outside projects to do, and the Fall is the time to do it for me- when we actually get Fall weather(last October sucked). My new grass should be able to get some deep roots going now, vs me struggling to keep the top half inch of parched soil wet with a sprinkler.

The omega block pattern is breaking down and once the remnant upper low exits, this longwave pattern looks to set up and persist over the next couple weeks, which should yield some super nice Fall weather for our area. The antithesis of what we had this time last year.

Up to 3.12" with just over a half inch overnight. Interesting to see the chance of thunderstorms in the forecast with some elevated instability. Looks like a slower exit of the low, and probably no chance of seeing the sun until Thursday over this way.

Definitely seeing some color here and there. I don't think there was any hint of it this time last year as we were in full second summer. Might be a 2 week difference.

High of 48

Sitting at 2.60" so far. Mostly just drizzle/light showers today, but as the low backs in, steadier rain is expected tonight into tomorrow. Official forecast here is 1-2" through tomorrow. That would be more than enough.

New edition of CanSIPS fwiw. The advertised h5 pattern for Dec and Jan would be acceptable. Potentially active look for Jan.

Just hit 2" for the event total. Seems another 1-2" is likely here.