CAPE

To each their own. I expect Spring to be changeable, and I enjoy the cooler days mixed in as they will quickly become few and far between then completely non existent for several months going forward. And yes we need some rain in April and May before we become solely dependent on scattered convection for moisture during most of the summer.

GFS loses if recent history means anything. Spilt the difference between the Euro and CMC. I will side closer to the Euro. 70 seems about right. What a day it will be!

Pretty decent rain event here. Nothing extraordinary. 0.62" so far. Most guidance(and the forecast) had 0.75-1" for this area.

They consider a lot more than the snow maps though, which was mostly what I saw being posted/discussed here lol. Pretty tough to be bullish on snowfall in mid April outside of the far western highlands. When I looked at the forecast out your way this morning the wording was for some snow, but 'little or no accumulation'. Was the end result really that much different? Maybe they could have started with an inch or less, then upgraded to 1-2. Doesn't seem like an egregious disregard for the guidance, which clearly depicted any significant accumulating snow occurring further west.

Rain has finally begun here and the wind is picking up. The coastal low is starting to get its act together. Temp is 45.

Someone should take a quick trip north and chase this deform band.

Frostburg really getting pummeled. Warning there now. Looks like 6-8" possible.

Same. Been planting stuff and it all needs watered.

35 this morning. Bring the rain.

If I was going to chase I would head up to NE PA. The advertised 700-850 Fgen band is impressive. Probably will be some 2"+ per hour rates for a few hours.

The tomorrow storm is no longer in the medium to long range.

Mostly betwixt and between here. Several rounds of thunder and lightning, but only 0.12" of rain.

Drinking a Flying Dog Nuclear Smile DIPA. Wasn't sure what to expect with this one, but it's pretty decent stuff. Mostly tropical notes, but very pleasant, and at 10% abv the alcohol is notable.

I am more worried about them making a new burrow in my drain field lol. Most of what I grow that are at risk are flowering plants like day lilies and roses, and the bigger issue with those are deer. I walked back into the woods and found the den. It's right at the back edge of my property adjacent to the farm field. They don't like anything the smells pungent, so maybe I will drop some peeled garlic around where they enter the yard to graze. I have been chasing them off the last couple days by making a loud banging noise when I see them.

A family of groundhogs have been grazing in the yard for the past few weeks. There are at least 3, including a 3 legged one. I have watched them closely to see what they are eating, and they were eating the chickweed early, then some clover, and now dandelions. Well hell yes on that. The clover I do like for ground cover when the grass ultimately fails, but they aren't pulling it up and it is pretty prolific. Their den seems to be in the woods just beyond my back yard, and so far they haven't been digging, but I will need to keep a close eye on that as they apparently look for a new (grassy) burrow for the warm months. Anyone have an experiences with these critters?

The general model trends support a widespread soaking rain early next week. GFS still with a further east track/later developing low than the Euro/CMC/ICON. WPC trending wetter with qpf, but still giving significant weight to the GFS, although it has moved towards consensus. As for snow, the usual places where climo supports it in mid April would be at some risk.

lol I am not in here rooting for snowstorms. Today is great. I will also enjoy the weekend weather too. Eff days in the 80s with low 60s dews this early.

42 for a low here. Now today is going to be stellar. Doesn't get any better for this time of year.

Bring it. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely. In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night, which does currently appear to be the period most likely to experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think the bigger story with this system will be the potential for freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in the coming forecast updates.

We just had 2 days in the 80s with humidity. Gross. Maybe that will remind some folks that days in the 60s in April should be cherished.

We get patterns that can produce coastal storms in April. It's weather, and can be interesting. We do need rain from time to time. I enjoy the sunny days in the 50s/60s this time of year. It seems whenever we get a pattern that can produce 70s in the Spring, the humidity comes with it. We will have plenty of that in our future.