CAPE
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The general gloom and doom is a bit dramatic/emotional imo. The Strat water vapor impacts are highly uncertain for the upcoming winter, and the influence of QBO phase is nebulous wrt tropospheric impacts/ HL blocking. ENSO most likely will be trending neutral mid to late winter..
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Latest CFS runs implying a pretty favorable look for December and Jan with +heights up top, and the PAC ridge is displaced more eastward towards the west coast for Jan. Neutral to +PNA.
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Ended up with 1.52 inches. The last half inch was nickel and dime showers on the back side over a longer duration. No sun here today. Socked in, and it feels coolish. Currently 69.
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Seeing some scattered showers here on the backside of the low. Up to 1.2".
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Up to 1.05". Good soaking over a 3 hour period. Still some scattered stuff around but happy with that. Most guidance had a half to one inch here.
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Maybe Chuck can chime in.
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Something you won't hear during winter.
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Just started raining here at around 6am. Been getting mostly moderate rain since. 0.45" so far.
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For now. As the W Atlantic ridge continues to weaken, the front will progress southward. Remains to be seen if the combo of upper jet, mid level vorticity advection, and PWAT coincide further south tomorrow. The way things look on latest guidance, I may have to be happy with a half inch here.
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Oct-Dec are Fall months here. So Jan may feel "chilly".
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Perpetual -PNA
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Give it a couple months.
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So October to next September. That's a hell of a long range.
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Yes. And the GFS would mostly pummel places to our NE. It has a few sprinkles over here lol.
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WPC has a slight risk of excessive rain for the NW burbs today and expands it eastward for tomorrow.
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The focus for heavy rain today is along the stalled boundary to our north. The western Atlantic ridge will flatten and the boundary will slowly sag south tonight and tomorrow, bringing the chances for rain further southward. For DC and points east/south, it appears the chances for significant rain are tied to a final piece of vorticity ejecting northeastward tomorrow that looks to induce a bit of a surface low. I like the depiction on the 0z Euro for my yard.
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Looks like some decent juice with some lift across the region.
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I am at a point in my life where traveling for weddings and funerals is optional, and I will usually pass and just send my condolences.
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Or the DE beach. There have been at least 3 10"+ storms there since 2017, including 2 blizzards.
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Every MA winter weather fan should know that a -AO is fundamentally important. In its absence a -EPO pattern can deliver cold, but without episodes of NA blocking snow is a bit more of a crapshoot.
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Slight differences from the last few runs.
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Mostly a miss just south of here. 0.18". Glad I got the unexpected half inch on Sunday. That plus this little refresher kept me from having to run the sprinkler to keep the new grass watered for a few days.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
CAPE replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Thin but intense looking line heading this way. See if it holds together. Pretty noisy off to the west.
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One thing we do know is the state of the SPV does not always dictate the character of the TPV, which is larger, not seasonal, can manifest as multiple vortices, and more directly influences our sensible weather.
