CAPE

33 with a pretty sunrise

They behave pretty much the same way- hardly noticeable as they pass through but blow up offshore and bring us wind.

This was the 'period to watch'. Never forget. Too bad the long lead GFS always sucks, but at least it teases, even in April. It probably will another time or 2 for May. At least 2 people here will be posting about it.

Enjoy tomorrow, and maybe late Wednesday.

It was so nice and calm this morning- just a breeze. That innocent weak little clipper.. now a strengthening low offshore. Damn PGF.

No allergies here either. I get those pollen strings piling up all over the deck and walkway in Spring, and I just go hit it with the leaf blower. The worst I get is mildly itchy eyes for a few minutes.

For those looking forward to 70s- maybe 80- here ya go.

I have been outside digging holes for holly trees. 54 in the sun and I am in short sleeves and sweating a bit. Would not want it much warmer for doing outside work. With just a light breeze now it feels perfect. 75+ and humid will be dime a dozen soon enough. I prefer a gradual transition to our 6 month summer lol.

Dec D Jan A Feb C- Mar D December and March are weighted lowest, as one is basically Fall and the other Spring in the lowlands. January was pretty epic for here with over 19" of snow and generally cold, with snow otg for many days. February was pretty pathetic with very little snow. The late Jan snow was still otg with cold temps for the first couple days of the month- that was the highlight. In the end, snowfall for my yard was slightly above average, and the best pattern set up during the ideal month (combo of low sun angle and cold/snow climo) and delivered with 3 snowstorms and one snow/sleet to rain deal. It was disappointing that literally nothing else transpired after that great start, but so it goes with Ninas in the MA in a warming climate. Overall grade: B-

Mid to late week still looking wet with 2 systems affecting the region as a trough digs to our west and moves eastward towards the end of the week.

33 for the low here. Other than a few showers tonight, most of today and tomorrow look really nice for outdoor activities.

The middle of next week looks a bit stormy. April showers.. Beyond that it looks like some chilly weather for a few days. Love the 50s and 60s this time of year.

Had several brief downpours overnight and this morning with a few rumbles of thunder. Rain gauge seems to be blocked up so no idea how much fell, but I am guessing no more than a quarter of an inch.

Looks like there may be some scattered gusty showers with possible graupel this afternoon as the main upper level energy passes overhead.

Severe is cool to track I guess, but other than heavy rain and T&L, I don't want it imy. Had a severe storm a couple summers ago that blew a tree down, but luckily it was well out in front of the house and only partially blocked the driveway. It was good firewood the last 2 winters.

Latest take from Mount Holly- As the entire upper-level trough gets closer later Thursday afternoon and evening, substantial flow through the atmosphere is expected to be over our area. This flow is nearly unidirectional (south to southwest) and will result in substantial shear. An examination of some model forecast sounding points from around the region shows impressive flow, however the instability profile is thin and short. These profiles tend to represent low-topped convective events. Given the shear that is forecast though, convection embedded within it will have the potential to transport the strong winds from aloft (40-60 knots at 925 mb) down to the surface. This will particularly be the case with line segments that take some some bowing/forward surging. Given the magnitude of the low-level shear (0-1 km) of around 30 knots, there is a non-zero tornado threat. Convection may start as discrete, especially to our west, but should evolve into a line or line segments with an eastward extent. Damaging straight-line wind is the main threat, however a tornado cannot be ruled out especially with any mesovortices that develop within a linear convective line. Some guidance shows that there is some potential for organized convective development near early evening in southern New Jersey to Delmarva, and the Slight Risk area (level 2 out of 5) has been expanded eastward and now covers nearly our entire area.

That does happen, but also the trough is exiting stage right and the warmer air is right on the heels coming in from the west, so the cold is hanging on over here a tad longer. Wind completely died down here overnight with clear skies, so perfect for temps to drop and plenty of frost to form.

low of 25 3 straight mornings of 25 or lower. Looking forward to the warmup today.

The coldest is occurring now and that's exiting tomorrow. After that it looks like 50s-60s (probably 70 or so on Thurs) through at least the middle of next week. Avg high temps are on the move upwards so any forecast 'cold' anomalies going forward aren't that cold, but certainly could still see some pretty chilly nights here and there the next couple weeks. Lets hold off the 70s/80s and humid at least another month.

Looks like pretty typical temps upcoming for this time of year.

23

Yep, we slight risk for Thursday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

31 currently and the wind is no joke. Low of 25 this morning, and likely lower tomorrow morning. Have my hydrangeas covered but not sure it will help.

38. About to crank up the wood stove with the cold night ahead. Thought I was done with it until next Fall.

From Mount Holly AFD- For Thursday...As a robust upper-level trough/closed low arrives from the west, deep surface low pressure is forecast to track well to our northwest and north. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will continue to support strong warm air advection, and this will help to propel a surface warm front across and north of our region. Given a chilly and very dry air mass initially in place in advance of this system, any precipitation may slow the northward progression of the warm front at least some. This will be key in how warm the region gets during Thursday before the cold front arrives. It does appear that most if not all of our region gets into the warm sector by later Thursday afternoon. A 120-knot 250 mb jet is forecast to be overhead by later in the day. In addition, 850 mb flow increases to near 50 knots. The GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings show strong and deep unidirectional flow and therefore strong shear in place. These soundings also show a thin instability (CAPE) profile and also have the look for low- topped convective potential. Given the strong forcing arriving from the west with an incoming cold front later in the afternoon, a low- topped squall line may develop and race across much of our area later in the afternoon and evening. Given the wind profiles, locally strong to damaging winds may occur especially with associated line segments that may take on some bowing/surging. The severe weather risk will depend on the timing and also the amount of instability, however as of now plenty of shear is forecast along with strong forcing.