CAPE

Took a quick drive to Ridgely to pick up a pizza, no more than 3 miles sw of here, and they jacked my snow. Looked like 3/4", which would have put me over the 20" mark.

There was a time or 2 this winter where I could have reported a tenth, but didn't bother. Wth this time I will. Lame ass event couldn't even manage to catapult me over 20". 3/12/22- 0.1" Total: 19.6"

Yeah even though Dec sucked, and Feb and March(so far) produced next to nothing, I can't hate this winter because January was nearly perfect.

That's probably what I would go with here but its hard to tell with all the drifting.

The yellow returns on the radar seem to be were the legit flizzard action is. Seeing that mostly pass just to my SW and east over DE the past hour or so.

Locations like yours are just subject to a multitude of issues with any given event, but it's not always the same issue. Two that are always present are UHI and proximity to the bay, and then lack of elevation, which is the primary issue here. I have zero UHI to contend with, and I am on the interior upper part of the eastern shore, so not close to the moderating influences of either bay. The ocean effs us both over when we get a wrapped up coastal or one that tracks just inland. You can miss out on marginal events(me too) where places just to your NW do well, but then I can cash in on offshore tracking lows like this past January, and you mostly miss those too lol. So all that, plus bad snow climo for the region in general, and it can suck pretty bad.

If some of the earlier runs that had that fgen forced band right along I-95 were correct, you would have done fine there. Given the setup, I always thought that would end up further west.

Snow growth definitely sucks in these bands behind the front. It's the same here with the radar- looks good but ground truth is underwhelming. Cold(dry) air advection.

Eyeballing a quarter inch drift on the deck.

Best snow of the day here now. Small flakes but bigger than pixie. Coming down "intensely". The 1-3 forecast is a bust but might get a decent coating if a few good bands pass through.

This event did not fail due to "warmth" in the lowlands. The cold came in right on schedule. Lack of precip at that point is the problem, and the 6z NAM kinda nailed that. Dead zone in between the better forcing to the west behind the front, and the slug of moisture that moved along/ahead of the front that was rain.

Ripping sideways pixie dust lol. Very light dusting. Maybe some of those bands to the west will eventually make it here. If they do the timing will be good. Temp is 31.

Some flakes flying here again after a bit of a sunny interlude. Temp still 32.

You are further east as well, and I wasn't glued to the radar earlier, but it looked like the best forcing/heaviest area of snow passed west of you.

Nice pics. That last one looks wind blown. I wouldn't think that elevation difference would make much difference in this situation. Your area got the best forcing and also good timing.

Where you are there is a decent chance for that as you already have some snow otg and the cold entrenched. My recent posts were more about the general setup and the tendency for the outcome to be underwhelming, despite those weenie snow maps everyone loves lol. I got exactly what I expected here. Maybe I can get a band or 2 come through that will whiten the ground a bit.

It's not completely done, but accumulating snow requires some persistent rates during the day now. Probably looking at periods of light to moderate snow. Best chance would be a late afternoon squall as the temps continue to drop. HRRR was suggesting that on earlier runs but I haven't looked at guidance recently.

Precip always moves out quicker than models depict in these situations. One reason I didn't post much and was skeptical even as the trends were colder sooner. Experience tells us how this ends up with a progressive/positively oriented trough the majority of the time. Sunny here now!

I agree. This was always a wave or 2 moving along a progressive cold front. The guidance generally depicted a relatively brief area of forcing, and somewhat localized, behind the front in the colder air. We suck at anafrontal, regardless of temps.

After an hour of mostly light sleet, changed to snow here in the last 30 mins with some big flakes coming down now and a temp of 32. Sun peaking out though lol. Unfortunately most of the precip is over. Good shot of rain as expected. 0.81" Looks like cold and windy with snow showers the rest of the afternoon.

34.5 with moderate sleet, and wind ofc.

Wind suddenly kicked up and temp fell 5 degrees pretty quickly. Down to 42. Moderate to heavy rain. 0.66" so far.

Nice. Change that profile photo, at least for a day.

I like the look of this window for my yard. Some of that is rain and then sleety verbatim on the 6z GFS, but temps are crashing during this time and it might be hanging onto a warm layer aloft that could be overcome with the heavier precip. If its a tad colder later in this period I might end up with 3" instead of an inch or so.

47 with moderate rain here. Just started in the last 20 mins.