Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...
AMENDED FOR EXPANSION/UPGRADING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday from the Carolinas
into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging winds and hail will be
possible. An isolated severe threat will also be possible in the
northern High Plains.
...Amended discussion for the Eastern U.S....
A mid to upper-level low will meander slowly eastward over the
central Great Lakes during the period. An associated trough
initially over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians is forecast to
gradually shift eastward into the central Appalachians/Carolinas. A
belt of moderate southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-40 kt) will
overspread a destabilizing warm sector ahead of a front/composite
outflow over the Appalachians. Strong heating ahead of the front
and very moist low levels (66-74 deg F surface dewpoints) will
likely result in a moderate to very unstable airmass from the
Southeast northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Several linear
clusters of intensifying thunderstorms are forecast to develop by
early afternoon in the immediate lee of the higher terrain. Further
upscale growth into a more expansive band of linear segments is
expected by late afternoon/early evening from the Mid-Atlantic
states southward into the Carolinas. Damaging gusts appear to be
the primary hazard due to 50-70 mph gusts. Isolated large hail may
accompany the stronger cores.
Managed to pick up 0.02" with that batch of spits and drizzle- the daily total. Probably it for the day as the action to the west is weakening.
Up to 0.45" for the event.
Drizzle . The rain gauge reads 0.00 for the day.
Not mad- at worst I will have to water the newer plants probably on Sunday, with the likelihood Monday will also be a fail lol. The grass is oddly hanging in there, but it never makes it past early July regardless of the amount of rain that falls.
This is so pathetic, esp after the epic tornado dream I had last night(have had hundreds). Just like all the others, there was this moment where I thought to myself, it's really happening this time- it isn't just a dream. Ofc, it was.
0.32"
Definitely no runoff here lol. but at the rate it is falling, the wind/evaporation is an overwhelming factor. I bet the soil is parched a cm under.
Hopefully will do better with the increasing DPs and southerly flow later, although it will be more scattered. Can't be worse.