CAPE

87/73 here currently. High was 90.

A local AFD will feature the phrase "uncomfortably dry".

I got weenied a few weeks back by a couple posters in the July LR thread for suggesting that late July/early August would likely feature typical peak summer weather, and nothing extreme. Warminstas be serious about the big heat tho, even when it only 'exists' on a GFS op run 300 hours out.

87/72 Sultry.

Yeah pretty typical heat the last few weeks. More humid than hot. I think I hit 94 one day here, but other than that its been mostly mid to upper 80s and a few low 90s. The high dews make it gross if you have to be outside physically doing something.

Perhaps an extended period of normal/below normal temps, and some days with reasonable dew points for mid month period.

This looks refreshing.

Need a little phase shift.

A couple downpours today added up to 0.35" Up to 3.1" since last evening.

A shot I took about a half mile from my house driving home from Centreville. Ended up with a quarter inch from this pulser that mostly missed to my SW.

Lost an oak tree last night. Snapped off a couple feet from the ground. The wind was probably 40 mph at most, so it had some issue. I already have 2 stacks of wood that are seasoned and need to be split. Plenty of firewood for the next couple years.

Had another round behind the main event. Total of 2.76". After getting next to nothing over a 2+ week span with multiple high probability chances for significant rain, this happens on a day where the forecast called for a 30% chance of a tenth or less lol.

Its been nice not having any skeeters. The late summer variety can be nasty and stick around through our second summer well into October. Delicate balance here.

2.35" Tomorrow is supposed have the much higher chance for heavy rain here. Might have to root for failure now.

1.85" and still going. Might be time to start the annual grass reseeding project this weekend.

Super impressive lightning with this. Maybe the best of the summer here. Pouring too. A bit of a surprise. Models weren't all that impressed this morning. Seemed it would be more isolated and pulsy.

Getting noisy out there. A deluge would be nice. Been pretty boring lately.

Had a random, sudden downpour around 2am. Lasted maybe 5 mins, resulting in 0.15".

0.11" we drought.

Second summer begins in one month.

My teaching load is variable, but this summer and early Fall it is higher than its been since COVID started. Plus I am developing a new course. Looking forward to November and December more than usual.

I'm about to go out and water all the plants. Maybe that will make it rain.

Mount Holly dropped the D word. A return to mid-summer heat and humidity is in store for the long term. The weak upper trough across the Northeast eases up in the Short term and beginning of the Long term allowing the higher heights from the Midwest to move back into the Middle Atlantic. We will likely see several days in a row of temperatures in the low/mid 90s and dew points in the moderate (Wed) to uncomfortable (Thu/Fri) range. It`s possible that excessive heat headlines may be required for some of these periods. Rains in a pattern like this can be scarce and the high temps will only aggravate the drought like conditions across the region.

Yeah, like you, the Euro has given me multiple inches of rain over several events that in reality added up to a tenth or so.

12z suite shows rain shield remaining activated for my area for the fourth consecutive event.