CAPE

I am more interested in getting the fertilizer soaked in lol. Grass already greening up nicely. I am hoping for a decent few hours later with a combo of light to moderate snow falling, big wind, and crashing temps. That would be fun to watch, and I am not really concerned about how much. An inch would get me over 20, so I suppose that's my "bar".

1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE.

Not even an advisory here so I wont even bother looking out the window today. If I end up with a couple inches it won't count.

You forgot the flash freeze and the white-out squalls. Deep winter and stuff.

This should have been a great event out there. Color me surprised at how this has (apparently) evolved. Never woulda thunk it a few days ago. Still having a hard time believing the corridor will do better, but evidence seems to be mounting.

Welcome, Spring.

Funny, but since you do important FB forecasting for soccer moms, I am sure you aren't conflating here.

You can have blizzard conditions without any snow falling at all. It is all about visibility.

Been busy with work and haven't really tracked the latest trends. Not sure how I feel about the NAMs or even the Euro over this way. Gut still says this is mostly rain for my yard with maybe a quick shot of snow at the end and maybe a coating. Looking pretty good now for places along and esp NW of I-95. Beautiful out right now. Heading out to put some fertilizer on the grass so the rain can soak it in.

27 with freezing fog.

This is still primarily a rain event for areas along and east of I-95, despite what the latest Euro runs are depicting. I just can't see it. And there likely won't be a prolonged sleetfest either. This is a pretty clear cut cold chasing precip situation imo. Sure there could be a brief period of frozen but not likely anything significant for the lowlands. Remains to be seen how areas NW of the Fall line can do with this, but better odds for at least a couple inches. This still looks like a moderate snow event for places far west/NW, maybe heavy for the far western highlands.

A lot of precip for here. Mostly rain and sleet. Pass.

Looks good to me.

A lock at your place in Canaan. With winds of 40 mph and crashing temps. Would be a shame to stay in Winchester and be disappointed again.

Reich was probably his only supporter. Irsay likely demanded a change after the debacle at the end of the season, and the GM probably agreed. Wentz is probably right in the middle of the pack of starting QBs as of today if you do the team by team analysis. He is a slightly different version of Kirk Cousins.

I am guessing the Colts have a deal in the works for Garappolo, or maybe Cousins? They invested a lot in Wentz last year, so they wouldn't do this deal without a plan for moving forward, I don't think.

He is serviceable. He plays hard and will compete. Definitely prone to the head scratching mistake at a critical time. Given the few options available for an upgrade, not a bad move. Imagine being TB, NO, or Carolina at this juncture. No answers at the most important position.

So Commanders fans(shit that still sounds so lame) what y'all think of the new addition to the QB room?

I agree with most of what you say here. The Euro and GFS have both been a bit "noisy" from run to run with the Saturday deal. Frankly the CMC has depicted(most consistently) what I think is the right idea given the set up, which is cold air chasing precip.

You realize how minor the differences are here synoptically? You really do need to break the addiction to model snow maps before next winter dude. The answers to the ultimate outcome are not gleaned by looking at this crap.

lol at weather models getting crowns. Pretty insane.

Nice! I am sipping on a 120. Shocker I know lol. But as long as I can get em, I will. They only brew it once or twice a year. Only one place locally that even has them, and they sell them as singles for 9 bucks.

This has been/will be an uphill battle. There is more bad with this setup than good. We can say that for a lot of events, but removing the weenie glasses this has mostly always looked too warm in front and too progressive, save for a few op runs here and there. Maybe the latest Euro is on to something (again?) lol. I doubt it. I think at best its a brief period of snow/ snow showers depending on the timing of the cold with the ass end of the wave along the front. We know how that usually works despite what guidance might suggest.

HH GFS has my yard as the east of the mountains jackpot! Sorry @Weather WillI couldn't resist.