CAPE
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^Ignore the colors(anomalies) and focus on the height contours and that isn't awful.
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It's a single run of the CFS. Useless, as it runs multiple times a day, and changes like the wind. TT has the average of the last 12 runs, which gives a better idea of what the model is advertising if you monitor it over a week or more. The depiction at h5 for the winter months has generally looked like crap for a while now. January-
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36. Frosty in the fields.
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How about the officials again getting involved and deciding a game with 2 highly questionable calls at the end. Cleveland wins with their help.
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Those 2 losses may come back to bite them. Both were horrific.
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We need more of this version of the Ravens offense going forward. Pretty tough schedule upcoming.
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I'll nit-pick. What's with the short kickoffs? That's 2 now.
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This Raven offense has a habit of losing their groove in the second half.
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Almost a perfect half. That fumbled exchange though. Could have been 35-0!
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Pretty nice presentation/rationale. He places significant emphasis on the output of the MEI, which I like.
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Ended up with 0.47"
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0.40". Still getting some lighter rain.
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Absolutely pouring now.
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Raining hard here now. A quick tenth. Looking at radar, doesn't look like it should last very long though.
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Lots of orange/red on the doorstep per radar. Was outside a little while ago and it felt quite cool and stable. 60 currently. Radar returns suggest there are torrential downpours occurring though.
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Not sure if the PDO is rapidly shifting positive, but good to see the SSTs cooling north of Hawaii. If the Aleutian low becomes a fixture (typically occurs in a Nino), the PDO should trend more towards neutral. The PDO phase is more of an effect than a driver- mostly influenced by ENSO, Ocean currents, and the strength/position of the Aleutian low in winter.
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The focus is always on the macro at this juncture. Plenty of speculation going on. Another month or 2 no one will care about Strat water vapor content or QBO. We will be busy tracking D15 fantasies for 3 months. Cant wait!
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This winter I suppose we will see if the -QBO can counter the increased Strat water vapor. This sort of stuff is all very nebulous, so we just can't know the overall impacts on sensible weather. On paper it can look like a damn mess, but a bit of luck and favorable wave timing a time or 2 and no one will care if the 3 month AO mean ends up positive.
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45. Lots of lows in the 40s recently. Looks like a decent chance for some 30s Monday night outside of the cities with HP in place and calm conditions. Perhaps some scattered frost.
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Yes it is. made that composite my profile photo a couple winters ago for good vibes or something. we were desperate up in here.
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^shit that looks like my profile pic
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Stratospheric chemistry is cool, but weather happens in the troposphere. I'll go with anomalously strong/ sustained HL h5 blocking as the biggest difference. And who really knows the complex combo of mechanisms/interactions that came together to produce it.
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A lot of dots to connect there, but it surely had some impact.
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Mostly it's the HL blocking. 2009-10 had an epic sustained -AO/NAO. He kinda seemed to not get that, which is odd for anyone who lives in this region and likes snow. A -AO is the number one index we want- high correlation to above normal snow in the MA, esp in the lowlands.
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Went for an early evening hike at Tuckahoe. Colors are starting to pop over the last few days.
