CAPE

After looking at the latest ops/ens means, my thoughts haven't really changed from yesterday at this time. The weekend deal looks pretty bleak for frozen outside of far N and W. The secondary low is too little/late- it would need to get going closer to the coast. The pattern is actually progressive despite all the talk of blocking. For the following wave next week, it will likely take a stronger low closer to the coast to involve colder air, plus stronger lift/dynamic cooling. Even then it would be precarious for the lowlands. Still potential and plenty of uncertainty in the evolution at this point. For now the signal for significant frozen on the means through mid next week continues to be to our north, and the western higher terrain at our latitude.

The 'Worm' moon looks incredible right now.

That's a KU on the 6z GFS.

Below average in mid March is in the 40s for highs. Not sure the models were ever advertising much below. What's more important is the setup- need to have a feed of cold enough/dry air and some serious lift. Dynamic + evaporational cooling.

Happy Spring.

The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands.

Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement.

The coastal low deepens a bit more on the 6z EPS, and a little colder with some precip still ongoing. Temps still very marginal outside of the usual places. If the low strengthens a bit closer to the coast, this scenario might be a bit more interesting.

'Colder' air availability will be improved and a better chance of a wave tracking underneath. I like the idea of a wave after the weekend thing, for early next week. eta- something like this. At this point there is a signal across guidance, but it would probably be on the weaker side /tend to develop more offshore. Thermals are better behind whatever happens this weekend.

At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow.

Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th.

0z EPS wave one The following wave is mostly south and off the coast.

Looks like it might fucking snow in your yard. Sorry.

Better late than never? Or maybe just better never lol.

Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it.

Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward.

18z GFS a disaster? Not seeing digital blue over your house through mid month.

That's a low forming along the baroclinic boundary. Pretty cold air hitting the Gulf stream.

Anyone bother checking the 12z JMA? Ji? @mitchnick

Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op. Once again the fundamental problem(on that run) is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east.

This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see.

The GFS op is still phasing in too much of the NS energy associated with the vort lobe in western Canada. The GEFS has been depicting a similar degree of interaction, but backed off some at 0z. The end result was improved. Subtle differences in these wave interactions make big differences later on with the outcome. Long way to go.

The dominant feature in a Nina is the NE Pacific ridge. The orientation/location can vary, dependent on multiple variables including the strength and character of the NPAC jet. Most of this winter it locked into one of the worst possible configurations for the MA and SE. Last winter it was more variable. January was a favorable period as the mean trough shifted eastward, so it was a pretty cold month. Also delivered 3 snowstorms, but bad luck for NW areas in 2 of those.

Helluva wave break. We would at least be chilly for mid month.