CAPE

He meant to post the precip anomaly map. Must be slipping a bit.

This is true.

Tilapia

Oh I had others in mind, but I decided to keep it clean.

Might score a mid March paste bomb! At this point persistent cold or snow on the ground for more than a day is a fantasy. This upcoming period won't resemble March of 14 or 15. That h5 look is showing up on both the EPS and GEFS though, and with hints of a blocking ridge around Greenland- albeit displaced further north than ideal- you can see how it might help keep the TPV displaced in a good spot, and to slow vortices moving through the 50-50 region.

Sounds like a frustrated weenie who lives in a place where it rarely snows.

^Maybe this guy should be limited to zero daily posts.

Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

These people at Mount Holly don't seem to understand. Quieter weather expected for the long term with high pressure bringing fair but chilly conditions for Saturday with plenty of sunshine followed by the approach of the next upper level trough and an associated cold front Sunday. It will be warmer Sunday ahead of this feature but there will also be the chance for some rain/snow showers. Thankfully, model consensus keeps the threat for southern-stream precipitation Sunday well south of our area with the cold front remaining a little slower and not able to phase with this energy over the Southeast.

18z EPS was better, but still not good.

Nice! Enjoy. I might be looking for a "next" career soon. Maybe you can hook me up.

Jeez I hope not!

Yeah I would go with an A here for Jan, I can't recall a better one in many years. December was awful as usual, and February has sucked other than still having snow otg for the first few days.

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

Better

Some slight improvement in the Southern sw and the NS vort lobe looks to be dropping in a tad more westward on HH GFS. Probably not enough but lets see.

What's happening to the early March highly touted big potential window? Here we go. Just shifted a few days. And a better look up top! This is the one.

EPS is too. We got ourselves a cold frontal passage!

The Canadians say no at 12z. Enjoy the Euro run y'all. I have one of those 'play nice in the workplace' deals to attend for like the 30th time. Always need refreshers on how to behave professionally.

The thread title could use a little revising maybe. I simply identified this as a window for a possible sneaky wave behind the late week storm that had fail written all over it. I was already looking ahead. The Great CAPE storm is a little hyperbolic. (That one happened in early January. )

We do have a thread for digital snow. I suggested a while back that is the place they should be deposited until we have a discrete threat(and dedicated thread).

Ok, on to the Euro. The goal is to get back to a weak sauce storm.

Those runs were pretty juiced up too with over an inch of precip not too far south. The qpf for the snow area was 0.50-0.65". If that's weak sauce, I like weak sauce.

Doesn't have to be a qpf bomb, at least for me. Rates and time of day matter more. The 12z/18z GFS simulations of yesterday had 4-6" (10:1) from the DC area across to central DE. I'd take that.