CAPE

47 here with a light sprinkle passing through. Disco from Mount Holly for this afternoon- Ahead of the reinforcing cold front passage later on today, scattered showers are expected to develop across the area. The environment will be a bit moisture starved to support any appreciable or particularly widespread convection with PWats only around 0.3-0.4 inches. Nevertheless, guidance remains consistent in showing light scattered QPF, including the CAMs. The HRRR remains the most aggressive CAM with this activity. The shortwave and upper divergence will undoubtedly provide plenty of support for scattered convection, and the cold mid-levels arriving ahead of the surface front will provide very steep lapse rates (7-8C/km) resulting in a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. However, the convection will be battling dry air (owing to lack of any return flow and broad scale downsloping in the westerly surface flow) and I suspect this will hamper the convection`s ability to get very organized or widespread. Given low level lapse rates exceeding 9C/km and cold air aloft (700 mb temps around -15C), any convection that materializes will be capable of producing small hail/graupel, isolated lightning/thunder, and wind gusts perhaps into the 30-40 mph range. Thus, I have maintained a mention of this for the entire forecast area with this update.

Pretty. As it should be out there this time of year.

I read that the buds need to be protected from frost/freeze or it may not bloom, but some varieties are more hardy than others. I will cover mine just to be safe. "More serious frost damage turns the leaves and emerging buds dark brown to black and wilted. Hydrangeas that haven't put on any new growth or developed flower buds are likely to be fine, even after a frost or freeze." https://homeguides.sfgate.com/hydrangea-pruning-hard-frost-72951.html

Goes without saying. Model simulations so good.

Hydrangeas have buds, so with a night or 2 in the mid to upper 20s I will have to cover them.

^Head to the western highlands. About the only place in the region where snow chances are reasonable the next couple weeks.

Looks brief, but the following cool down doesn't look as cold as the upcoming one.

Nice rebound.

Event total- 1.02"

Pouring here the last hour.

Had some T&L here and a few downpours. Most of it went to my north I think. 0.47" overnight.

But wait- Many places have more wind! We breezy at best.

Ok Mr. Literal lol. It's relative. WE aren't very hot either compared to other places. It's more a running joke around here. Heat and wind. Severe sucks. Snow climo sucks. Tropical sucks. That said, there really is no WE in this region. The coastal areas and the western areas at elevation get more wind than other parts of the MA. There is more wind here than I would like. Living in the the middle of the woods I probably have a different perspective.

We do wind almost as proficiently as heat. Both are annoying after 5 mins.

I was looking at the snowfall summaries for stations in S DE, and lots of missing data. Found a station east of Georgetown and west of Rehoboth that looked like it had reports for each event, and the total is 22.5".

19.6" will be the total for my yard unless something really odd happens. Checked the CoCoRaHS station on the east side of Greensboro, 3 miles from my house, and the total was 20.4". The late Jan event had a decent west to east gradient(higher amounts further east) so that is the primary difference.

This is more like it. It goes on to crush the interior NE.

Seems to be a function of hitting an age where a lot of your life is in the past and not as much in the future. The endless hot, humid summer will slow things down some.

As long as it isn't cold/wet/dreary, it won't be that bad. It won't last that long, and if we get partly sunny days it will just feel like nice Fall weather. The cold mornings with frost might be a bit of a pain, but it's too early to start growing most plants/veggies anyway. Knowing what's to come just down the road, I am good with a few days in the upper 40s to low 50s. With sun, it probably won't be any colder than that.

The CFS sniffed out this look 10 days ago. The recent run of 60s and 70s will make this a rough period for many.

You hate to see it.

High of 65 here. Nice day.

^ For me, 'Hitch A Ride' is their best song. Features one of the best and most beautiful guitar solo outros ever, and underrated. There are lots of good ones, but it is arguably the best.

Love this dude. A true musicologist. Love how he can deconstruct/isolate, and analyze each component of a song. And what a song this was/is. A masterpiece by Boston.