CAPE

All 3 globals are depicting pretty extreme amplification of the western ridge next weekend, causing the TPV to shed a lobe that produces a digging trough. Both the CMC and GFS literally drop the hammer on top of the southern wave, while the timing and orientation of the trough on the EURO allows (positive) interaction with the wave further west, thus not crushing it to oblivion. Long way to go before we know how this unfolds.

Looks similar to 12z. Less snow in our region though, which was kinda tough to do lol.

I noticed the daylilies starting to emerge today. Despite any cold this time of year, the longer days/ stronger sun is undeniable.

This post was in error lol. I was comparing the 6z and 12z, and thought I was looking at the 12z. Suffice to say the 12z run was quite different.

WDI for you.

I am right about at 20" and playing with house money here. I can afford to be a winter precip snob. Give me 3-6 of cold powder or a 10" paste bomb.

If I could get some front end snow then a sleet-fest I might be more interested. Outside of the GFS, the other guidance is not suggestive of that.

Dw. GFS is not going to be correct. Damn did I just sound like DT?

Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me. Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast.

29 and yeah, it's windy.

Wrt the Feb 27- March 1 period, HH GEFS seems to have a few subsets among the members- one brings energy out sooner and has as storm for Sunday into Monday, and most of that group(around 10) has a wave but keeps it suppressed. There are 2 or 3 nice hits for our area. The second subset seems to dampen the initial wave and has a stronger one a day or so later. There are 5 hits for the region in that group, 3 look like significant snow events, the other 2 are snow/mix to rain. The other group suggests snow showers or not much of anything. Upshot is this is a period to keep an eye on, and there is a pretty solid signal on the guidance given this is 8+ days out.

GFS op runs at range are usually entertaining.

which results in this at the surface.

and then we get this lol

The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days.

Looks a tad cold behind it.

Right where we want it.

That's the default take at this point until proven otherwise.

Someone should have hidden the magic gravity gibberish post. People just can't resist replying lol.

12z GEFS members for the Sunday- early Tuesday timeframe. A bit scattershot on the timing and evolution but it is emerging as a period of interest.

Yeah it does. LOL I just realized I had switched back to the 6z run when I was scrolling through the surface panels.

12z GFS continues with the crazy parade of storms tracking along the boundary, but to our north.

lol no thanks. Another 75-100 miles south will do it. It will probably end up the other way, which I would prefer to this.

First round of wind starting to crank here.

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.