CAPE

Canadian ens looks better lol. Euro/EPS still not enthused with the idea of freezing/frozen. I'll say it again- late next week is worth keeping a casual eye on, but it's not the one. Probably too soon as it occurs at the front end of a shift in the pattern.

The snowiest 6 hour p-type panels overall, Fwiw.

HH GEFS snowfall mean 2-3+" through next weekend, basically DC to Dover northward.

Lets see what the ens mean looks like, not that it will provide any clarity as it mostly just follows the op each run lately. Still think this ends up mostly rain/ slop at best for the lowlands, but I am open to being surprised lol. One thing is for sure- the GFS can go eff itself if the Euro isn't onboard.

Same. But not even buying the zr/sleet event given its recent performances. Not a good climo match for the lowlands at the very end of Feb either. Maybe the Winchester folks are more intrigued by this idea, but not me.

HH GFS doing GFS-like things at range. Seems I have seen this sort of thing recently.

Hope you get a few inches for the visiting fam to enjoy!

66 here and that is the high temp.

There is a clipper tracking to the north and that should produce some decent upslope snow for the western highlands, but beyond that not sure the rest of the area will see more than a random flurry. As for the HRRR at this range, lol don't bother.

But do you have plenty of craft beer in the fridge?

The instrument I used has a k thermocouple as the probe so not the most accurate sensor for measuring relatively low temps. Could be off a degree or 2.

Just measured the temp here at work in Easton with a Fluke 16 and it's 64.

At this juncture I am not rooting for or wasting energy tracking ice/sleet/slop-to-rain events. Non starter. I am only interested in mostly or all snow events, in any form. And yes they can occur in a pattern such as the one being advertised in early March, even southward into NC.

I would characterize the interplay between the vortex near the Aleutians, the poleward extending EPO ridge, and the TPV lobe(s) collectively as a block. It seems to get kicked off by a cyclonic wave break out of the Aleutian vortex that pinches off the Pac ridge and amps it up into the EPO space, followed by a poleward anticyclonic wave break, which sends the TPV lobe south, and then it all becomes self sustained. Loading the h5 vorticity panel and hitting play is fun stuff. Turbulent flow on the largest scale.

I really like what I am seeing beginning next weekend. Imo the progression of the pattern is such that late next week is probably too soon. Sure there could be a mix to rain deal, and could end up better out your way. Keep in mind the GFS has been in error with depicting colder solutions at range recently, especially in situations where colder air is arriving. Clearly the primary window for frozen lies just beyond next week.

The 0z GEFS tracks the next Friday wave further NW similar to the EPS, thus the signal for frozen is much weaker than previous runs. Still a week or so out. The better window starts a couple days later when the cold gets more established, and the latest ensemble runs are suggesting multiple chances in that timeframe. Looks promising. I am sure someone will post the 0z GEFS snowfall mean for that period, take it verbatim, and whinge.

-PNA will prevail. Its Nina and the +NAO is 5 sigma. The east will bake!

This has been an error in the GFS/GEFS at range with recent events, so lets see how the trends play out over the coming days in comparison with the Canadians and the Europeans.

It was there at 12z too, but a bit more robust at 18z centered on next Friday. Gets some light blue over N central and NE MD (pummeled!).

The snowfall depicted in our region would occur from the 25th to the end of the run. Not a bad sig at this juncture. EPS isn't as enthused yet.

That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week.

I was just looking at that. Basically 6 or so members have blues/pinks across the area for next Friday. Something to watch.

Plenty active and a little bit of everything going on there lol.

Its all still pretty much scattershot on the members at this range but this is the best 24 hour window on the 6z ens mean that has a combo of cold in place with precip.